MJO812 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Ticked north again, congrats again to the Mid HV. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2022022018&fh=123&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= It shifted south from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Pivitol vs. Tropical Tidbits one includes sleet the other doesn't 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It shifted south from 12z Looks about the same or a touch north to me. Snow line definitely bumped north. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2022022018&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022022012&fh=120&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype_cat&m=gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Looks about the same or a touch north to me. Snow line definitely bumped north. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2022022018&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022022012&fh=120&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype_cat&m=gfs The low is slightly south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Looks about the same or a touch north to me. Snow line definitely bumped north. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2022022018&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022022012&fh=120&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype_cat&m=gfs Nice position of the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Looks about the same or a touch north to me. Snow line definitely bumped north. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2022022018&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022022012&fh=120&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype_cat&m=gfs not the frozen line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: not the frozen line Yea upper levels warm up a bit more but surface is a little colder this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 QPF by me went from .74 12z to 1.15 on 18z and snowfall increased from 7 to 12. Who knows? It looked better at H5 for late next weekend also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 45 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea upper levels warm up a bit more but surface is a little colder this run. Surface will be hard to warm given extensive high pressure. Thinking it'll be a big mess over here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Surface will be hard to warm given extensive high pressure. Thinking it'll be a big mess over here. Let’s see if models start trending more south with time. That’s a decent high in southern Canada 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 42 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: QPF by me went from .74 12z to 1.15 on 18z and snowfall increased from 7 to 12. Who knows? It looked better at H5 for late next weekend also. The qpf seems to waffle around every run but seems about .75 to 1.25 is a reasonable expectation for most of the area. Thats usually what you get with these kinds of systems. The more amped the more qpf but also more mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Comin up on march. Safe to talk about the sun now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Yup. This looks like how these types of systems play out for NYC south. Still 4 plus days out I guess... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 11 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It's over for NYC south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's over for NYC south its not over for NYC south - chance this could turn into a sleet storm 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 OZ Canadian actually looked better. Parent low was weaker and further south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: its not over for NYC south - chance this could turn into a sleet storm Yup. CMC also had a lot of sleet for NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Just now, Metasequoia said: OZ Canadian actually looked better. Parent low was weaker and further south. once again - NYC metro - sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: once again - NYC metro - sleet Yea, not a good run for snow. Sleet will do though. Pretty close to being a soaker unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: once again - NYC metro - sleet It's shifting north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: It's over for NYC south . You give up on every storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: It's shifting north I think we need to move onto the Sunday night storm, they were talking about that on the news tonight too- let us know what it looks like for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 7 hours ago, MJO812 said: It's over for NYC south Since when did you become so negative? Is this an all out snow storm for NYC? No. But can we tack a couple inches (including sleet) on to seasonal totals? Yes. I also look at things from a snow removal and overtime lens. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 just a small reminder ..the end game is far from over with this system as some of the guidance trends colder this thread may heat up.... dm realizes crow is on the menu 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Doorman said: just a small reminder ..the end game is far from over with this system as some of the guidance trends colder this thread may heat up.... dm realizes crow is on the menu Not expecting more than 1 to 3 LI to 84. HOWEVER, November 2018 NAM and HRRR were showing 6 to 8 before the changeover during that Months SWFE even though all the globals had C to 2. Obviously that's an outlier, however shows that you are correct in it's important to keep an eye on the mesos to catch any surprises. Same positive surprise happened during the March 2011 SWFE. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 6 hours ago, justinj said: . You give up on every storm I do ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now