HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Congrats HeadinClouds on 12Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Rjay said: I thought you hate the gfs and always say it's useless. Also the Gfs has a clear cold bias nowadays. The GFS should have this storm figured out sometime Saturday afternoon, once again, it’s a huge outlier at 12z, that model is laughably horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Congrats HeadinClouds on 12Z Euro. I'll take the 7 inches it gives me for sure but again way too early. Yesterday at 12z it was giving everybody .5-.6 liquid equivalent and today it's up to .8-1.0 for most. We track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 My big takeaway is the EURO did not go warmer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 FWIW Euro also has something interesting next Sunday last few runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 OPC 96 hr surface prog pregame----- o canada 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 WELL THE SNOW IS LESS ON FRIDAY-----But Who Invited the TPV to Dinner? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 22 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: FWIW Euro also has something interesting next Sunday last few runs. yes a snow storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 44 minutes ago, Doorman said: love this prog....everything but the kitchen sink Yeah it's great if you live in Massachusetts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 13 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea my previous post wasn't intended to say NYC can't get any snow from this storm but I do feel pretty confident anything more than 1-3 inches for NYC is unlikely. When you have no -NAO block, these setups trend more north and warmer in the midlevels as you get up to the event. The models usually grossly underestimate the midlevel warm punch in these setups until right before it starts and even then they can miss it. This is a classic I-84 and north snow event….there will likely be very little snow south of I-84 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 I agree with snowman This is not a snow event for NYC 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I agree with snowman This is not a snow event for NYC now watch it become one2 negatives = a positive theory..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 41 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: FWIW Euro also has something interesting next Sunday last few runs. CMC and GFS have nothing for next Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 47 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: My big takeaway is the EURO did not go warmer. It def trended more favorable honestly although didn't fully translate at the surface. If it slowed down another few hours I think a lot of people from NE NJ and points NE would be happier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 20 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: now watch it become one2 negatives = a positive theory..... It's true though What's stopping it from trending worse ? No blocking. Yes a front end is possible though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I agree with snowman This is not a snow event for NYC If the models were showing snow right now 4+ days out you'd be all in but suddenly they're 100% right this far out. I'd give it a couple days. I don't think snow is likely but I don't want to discount it either. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's true though What's stopping it from trending worse ? No blocking. Yes a front end is possible though. It's just too early to say any thing is factual 4 days out. NYC could absolutely get a minor 1-2 inch front end dump of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The thing that stands out on that for me is Albany's 17.2 VS 40.5 average. I'm in the same boat, only 15.5 so far and well below average. Hoping I can make some of that up in the next month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 51 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: CMC and GFS have nothing for next Sunday. Yes I know. I was just stating what the Euro was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 17 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: The thing that stands out on that for me is Albany's 17.2 VS 40.5 average. I'm in the same boat, only 15.5 so far and well below average. Hoping I can make some of that up in the next month. Lets hope the mid level warming doesn't go wild and that you and Albany can do well with this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: yes a snow storm That map includes what falls Thursday night/Friday. Below is the map of what Euro shows for next Sunday. Right now it has zero support though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 35 minutes ago, MJO812 said: You can def see it's been an average winter for NYC, a great winter SE of the city, and a lousy winter NW of the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 20, 2022 Author Share Posted February 20, 2022 How is LGA higher than JFK??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: You can def see it's been an average winter for NYC, a great winter SE of the city, and a lousy winter NW of the city. Yeah, temp wise its been slightly above normal to date(1.4 degrees) and that includes a very warm December, but we have been shafted with the snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Yeah, temp wise its been slightly above normal to date(1.4 degrees) and that includes a very warm December, but we have been shafted with the snow amounts. Upton took the easy way out for Friday Snow and rain upper 30's 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Upton took the easy way out for Friday Snow and rain upper 30's Seems like the right forecast for now. Its basically impossible to forecast precip types this far out, we can only speculate based on model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 52 minutes ago, mikem81 said: How is LGA higher than JFK??? I think the surprise early Jan overperformer dumped like 9 inches at LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 GFS about to fully cave I think Or maybe not... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Ticked north again, congrats again to the Mid HV. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2022022018&fh=123&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now