NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, Doorman said: simple maps-- simple plan coastal storm is on all ens models my vibe is the metro will steadily improve on the snow accumulations as we move thru the week it's obvious the WPC is using a blend of all the models - also I think this has a chance of redevelopment off the coast because it will only be allowed to move so far north and west coming out of the southwest of us because of the HP to the north and west - timing of the movement of that HP is critical IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Speaking of model blends. Here's the current model blend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Speaking of model blends. Here's the current model blend. That is awesome. Is it available on their site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 The Thursday-Friday timeframe is looking more and more interesting as confidence is increasing in winter weather returning to the region. Surface low pressure develops across the mid south, and heads through the OH Valley ahead of the aforementioned upper trough. Models are coming into a bit better agreement--for Day 6 at least--that a secondary coastal low will form by early Friday near DelMarVa and work up the east coast. At this point, track and intensity uncertainty plays into the ptype uncertainty and changes to this scenario are likely, and expected, over the next few days. Global models have trended colder, with the GFS and GEFS on the colder side, and the EU/ECENS on the (slightly) warmer side. Thus, the NBMv4.1 ends up somewhere in the middle, though is showing about a 20-30% of >6" across the far interior, with 5-20% across the remainder of the CWA, which is noteworthy. For now, have kept a rain to snow to rain trend across NYC and coastal locations, with a mainly snow event across the interior. It should be noted, however, that the setup with cold high pressure to the north nosing into the area--a cold air damming signature--does seem favorable for at least for some ice/mixed precip across at the onset early on Friday, especially north and west of NYC. This is supported by model soundings as well, depicting a small warm nose in the 700-850mb layer. Nonetheless, given that it`s so far out, have maintained a R/S mix in the forecast for this time. Stay tuned. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 26 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Hopefully but nothing to keep the high in place Yeah this is still looking like 1 to 3 LI to 84. Don't worry though GEFS and GEPS are advertising, as of this moment and could change, a real snowy look in March IMO. EPO so intense it keeps the SE ridge south around the mid Atlantic. At the same time the PNA goes slightly negative, allowing storms to come north with the general area being on the cold side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah this is still looking like 1 to 3 LI to 84. Don't worry though GEFS and GEPS are advertising, as of this moment and could change, a real snowy look in March IMO. EPO so intense it keeps the SE ridge south around the mid Atlantic. At the same time the PNA goes slightly negative, allowing storms to come north with the general area being on the cold side. You'd want higher heights extending towards Greenland because it would help pin the PV further south. The current setup allows the SE ridge to flex giving us either rain events or mixed precip. It's a good setup for areas further north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Eps went north We can never win here in the city. Worse place for winter . Well no, but this is a fairly easy one to call for us. Hopefully the few hour thump to start but expect the sleet and rain to dry slot. NYC can cash in on any setup, Miller A El Niño event like Jan 2016, Miller B event like 12/30/00 or the events last winter or 2/25/10, but we also get the lousy end of all of the above if the confluence is too strong or too weak or etc. We have no bread and butter event like Boston or DC. NYC is the toughest I-95 megalopolis city to forecast for during winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: You'd want higher heights extending towards Greenland because it would help pin the PV further south. The current setup allows the SE ridge to flex giving us either rain events or mixed precip. It's a good setup for areas further north though. SE ridge can't flex too much with the EPO as depicted. Obviously if the EPO is weaker than shown yes. However, even if the EPO is weaker cold air will come in behind any storm and allow for weak trailing wave action. If amped snow before the changeover. Speaking purely on the March pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: That is awesome. Is it available on their site? Some of the paid sites have it. I have it on weathermodels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: That is awesome. Is it available on their site? Yes. It’s on the Model lab page (lab.weather models.com). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Ive seen enough to say the snow threat is over for NYC. Best case outcome for the city is now a sleetstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Ive seen enough to say the snow threat is over. Best case outcome for the city is now a sleetstorm. You've seen enough? It's over 4 days away. The city could still see a few hours of snow at the beginning before changeover. GFS still gives metro a a good amount on front end. Not saying it's right but way too early to be turning off the lights on the front end snows. This has always been a system that the further north you are the more snow but NYC could definitely see some. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: You've seen enough? It's over 4 days away. The city could still see a few hours of snow at the beginning before changeover. GFS still gives metro a a good amount on front end. Not saying it's right but way too early to be turning off the lights on the front end snows. This has always been a system that the further north you are the more snow but NYC could definitely see some. I thought you hate the gfs and always say it's useless. Also the Gfs has a clear cold bias nowadays. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, Rjay said: I thought you hate the gfs and always say it's useless. Also the Gfs has a clear cold bias nowadays. I do hate it, especially for east coast storms, but I'm not throwing anything out 4.5 days away and act like nothing can change. I don't believe NYC is getting anywhere near the 6 inches it shows but some some front end snow is still in play. The Cmc tends to have a warm bias also. Still too early to be making definitive statements. That was my point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 I always like to look at a blend of guidance and ensembles and take the avg, middle ground between solutions as most probabilistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 30 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: You've seen enough? It's over 4 days away. The city could still see a few hours of snow at the beginning before changeover. GFS still gives metro a a good amount on front end. Not saying it's right but way too early to be turning off the lights on the front end snows. This has always been a system that the further north you are the more snow but NYC could definitely see some. GFS is trending north every run but more importantly the CMC and UKie both went even further north with the mid levels at 12Z. I think if anything this will trend further north from where it is now, not south. We do still have some time for changes in timing which could impact front end snow so we'll see. The models did overestimate the warming of the mid levels in 1/16 event so it's not impossible this could trend snowier on the front end but right now it's not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Is sleet not counted on any CMC snow totals? Looks like a nice hit of sleet that translates to nothing on the 10:1 maps on tidbits and pivotal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Just now, romba said: Is sleet not counted on any CMC snow totals? Looks like a nice hit of sleet that translates to nothing on the 10:1 maps on tidbits and pivotal Sleet is not counted on snow totals on those maps, thats why they are more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Still think this type of system favors northern areas for snow, but we are still 5 days away. That's plenty of time for a shift south or north for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 As snowgoose said last night if the high was further east and the cold was more entrenched ahead of the storm it would be different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: GFS is trending north every run but more importantly the CMC and UKie both went even further north with the mid levels at 12Z. I think if anything this will trend further north from where it is now, not south. We do still have some time for changes in timing which could impact front end snow so we'll see. The models did overestimate the warming of the mid levels in 1/16 event so it's not impossible this could trend snowier on the front end but right now it's not looking good. The models often tend to overestimate the mid level warming in these situations and it's still over 4 days away. NYC getting a few hours of front end snow is still plausible and those details we really don't know at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Still think these type of systems favor northern areas for snow, but we are still 5 days away. That's plenty of time for a shift south or north for that matter. They do favor northern areas. The higher your latitude the likely more snow and the changeover to sleet/ZR is delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 One thing to consider for the coast is, we have the lowest near shore water temps in several years. If this were December I would say we start and stay rain, but with water temps so cold that can offset the unfavorable wind direction somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: The models often tend to overestimate the mid level warming in these situations and it's still over 4 days away. NYC getting a few hours of front end snow is still plausible and those details we really don't know at this point. Yea my previous post wasn't intended to say NYC can't get any snow from this storm but I do feel pretty confident anything more than 1-3 inches for NYC is unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea my previous post wasn't intended to say NYC can't get any snow from this storm but I do feel pretty confident anything more than 1-3 inches for NYC is unlikely. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 well how about that... ... tracking ++++ 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, Doorman said: well how about that... ... tracking ++++ It includes sleet so I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Euro slower this run which might be a good thing but not sure yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 love this prog....everything but the kitchen sink 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Went from 0.7 to 0.9 for NYC. Big dump for 84. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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