February 24/25 Potential Winter Storm

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

There is just no go to model like the Euro used to be. They all suck. 

I thought they were really good for this storm. 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

It's not siberia but Southwest Brooklyn, Southern Manhattan, and Southern Queens are better choices for people who hate snow. 

I live in south Brooklyn 

[HeadInTheClouds]

31 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I thought they were really good for this storm. 

CMC/Rgem were pretty good I thought. Other globals(GFS, UKIE, Euro) were too cold with too much snow and the nam was giving Albany 3 inches and had sleet up to vermont before it corrected. Im not saying they all have to be perfect especially in complicated setups but this winter they have been pretty terrible for the most part. 

[eduggs]

2 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Measured 3.5 inches of mostly snow, some sleet. A little disappointing but whatever. 19 for the season. My daughter who lives near Albany said they got about 8. 

To borrow a previously used phrase, the GFS, Euro, and UK were out to lunch. Sleet surged way north. Good job NAM. Sorry you missed out on another snowstorm. Lousy winter.

[WarrenCtyWx]

I don't think we had any snow even to start here in NW NJ. It was entirely sleet and freezing rain.

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

There is just no go to model like the Euro used to be. They all suck. 

Weather modeling has literally never been more accurate. Over reliance on vendor snow maps, ignoring of synoptics and forecast soundings, and unrealistic expectations of model accuracy create a false impression of model unreliability. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

38 minutes ago, eduggs said:

To borrow a previously used phrase, the GFS, Euro, and UK were out to lunch. Sleet surged way north. Good job NAM. Sorry you missed out on another snowstorm. Lousy winter.

I got 3.5 which ties the biggest amount so far this year so I didn't entirely miss out, although 45 minutes north got 7, and it took me 2 hours to clear driveway. It's white outside and has high moisture content so maybe it will stick around for awhile. 19 so far this season. 

[eduggs]

19 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

CMC/Rgem were pretty good I thought. Other globals(GFS, UKIE, Euro) were too cold with too much snow and the nam was giving Albany 3 inches and had sleet up to vermont before it corrected. Im not saying they all have to be perfect especially in complicated setups but this winter they have been pretty terrible for the most part. 

The NAM was really good. Models should be expected to shift around either side of the final outcome. And it really only went too far north for one run. And sleet did briefly into the southern Capital District.

[HeadInTheClouds]

16 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The NAM was really good. Models should be expected to shift around either side of the final outcome. And it really only went too far north for one run. And sleet did briefly into the southern Capital District.

Actually it was 2 consecutive runs and it was within 48 hours of the event I believe. Shift around? It took sleet up to central Vermont, might as well taken it to Canada. In the end it was good though still too far north with the sleet. 45 minutes north of me received 7 inches and Albany area got 8-9. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

24 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Weather modeling has literally never been more accurate. Over reliance on vendor snow maps, ignoring of synoptics and forecast soundings, and unrealistic expectations of model accuracy create a false impression of model unreliability. 

Models have been good at sniffing out events but they have been very poor with the details for the most part this winter. Often this season there has been no consensus even within 24 hours of event. Euro used to be the king, not it's as mediocre as the rest of them. I don't expect them to be perfect as each model has it's own biases and strengths, but I think they have been poor this winter and the American models have been the worst of the bunch even though nam was good this storm the last 6-7 runs once it corrected. 

[LibertyBell]

36 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Models have been good at sniffing out events but they have been very poor with the details for the most part this winter. Often this season there has been no consensus even within 24 hours of event. Euro used to be the king, not it's as mediocre as the rest of them. I don't expect them to be perfect as each model has it's own biases and strengths, but I think they have been poor this winter and the American models have been the worst of the bunch even though nam was good this storm the last 6-7 runs once it corrected. 

I heard that the American models were in last place but the Canadian models really improved because of upgrades?

 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I heard that the American models were in last place but the Canadian models really improved because of upgrades?

 

I also read CMC is now considered #2 behind the Euro. CMC did decently with this storm so makes sense  

[snywx]

2.8” of pure glacier out there.. The 6”+ amounts were about 50 miles N

[HeadInTheClouds]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I heard that the American models were in last place but the Canadian models really improved because of upgrades?

 

This is true. 

[NorthShoreWx]

Would have been a good day to chase north.  Missed the ice but an awesome powdah day at Wildcat.  Hard to gage while skiing but from from walking through the lot at end of day it might have been 8-10".  Pure fluff and temps stayed in the low teens.

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Actually it was 2 consecutive runs and it was within 48 hours of the event I believe. Shift around? It took sleet up to central Vermont, might as well taken it to Canada. In the end it was good though still too far north with the sleet. 45 minutes north of me received 7 inches and Albany area got 8-9. 

6-7 for ALB and sleet at least as far north as southern ALB county. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=nws&issuedby=aly&product=pns

[HeadInTheClouds]

21 minutes ago, eduggs said:

6-7 for ALB and sleet at least as far north as southern ALB county. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=nws&issuedby=aly&product=pns

Yeah and? Albany reported 7 inches, Delmar 8. Places in Greene county which is south of Albany reported 7 and 8 also. So what if they got some sleet? The nam had them getting LOTS of sleet 2 days ago and hardly any snow. 

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Yeah and? Albany reported 7 inches, Delmar 8. Places in Greene county which is south of Albany reported 7 and 8 also. So what if they got some sleet? The nam had them getting LOTS of sleet 2 days ago and hardly any snow. 

You argued for days - dominated the forum with your viewpoint - that this event would wind up cold and snowy. And you were wrong. Best to just man up and admit it.

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

You argued for days - dominated the forum with your viewpoint - that this event would wind up cold and snowy. And you were wrong. Best to just man up and admit it.

I mostly vented about the nam being way too warm and not correct with it's snow totals north, especially in and around I90. The Capital district was never going to get inundated with sleet and it was always going to get a 6+ inch snowfall. When the nam corrected in later runs to a more reasonable solution I said as much. Yes I did think LHV was going to get more snow than they got and Poughkeepsie area in MHV was going to get a 6 inch snowfall and we fell a little short. I was wrong about that. You happy now? 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, eduggs said:

You argued for days - dominated the forum with your viewpoint - that this event would wind up cold and snowy. And you were wrong. Best to just man up and admit it.

jackpot zones are usually close to the sleet areas and mix lines

 

[LibertyBell]

Don or anyone with historical info, how common is it for Boston to get 8 inches + of snow while NYC gets under 1 inch?  Is there anything such storms have in common in terms of teleconnections, which month they happen in, etc.?  Thanks.

 

[rclab]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don or anyone with historical info, how common is it for Boston to get 8 inches + of snow while NYC gets under 1 inch?  Is there anything such storms have in common in terms of teleconnections, which month they happen in, etc.?  Thanks.

 

Liberty I don’t mean to minimize the significance of your request but wouldn’t the difference geographically play more into the commonality of those occurrences? UHI differences also? As always ….

[HVSnowLover]

3 hours ago, rclab said:

Liberty I don’t mean to minimize the significance of your request but wouldn’t the difference geographically play more into the commonality of those occurrences? UHI differences also? As always ….

Wouldn't Boston also suffer from UH?  I would also be curious how many storms NYC gets 0 inches and Boston gets > 6 (like this last storm). I'd hypotheize its rare with coastals but common with SWFE events.    

[HVSnowLover]

14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

jackpot zones are usually close to the sleet areas and mix lines

 

Agree it was incredibly reasonable to believe Ulster and Dutchess county would fair well in this setup and it's also a myth they never do well with SWFE. This one had a bad airmass to start, I mean it started as sleet in NW NJ.  

[HeadInTheClouds]

27 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree it was incredibly reasonable to believe Ulster and Dutchess county would fair well in this setup and it's also a myth they never do well with SWFE. This one had a bad airmass to start, I mean it started as sleet in NW NJ.  

The thing is no matter how some want to say it was a sleetfest in this area many places in Dutchess and Ulster got between 4 and 5 and some places close to 6. It may have been a little less than expected but it also wasn't a total bust. 

[Juliancolton]

On 2/25/2022 at 6:01 PM, HeadInTheClouds said:

There is just no go to model like the Euro used to be. They all suck. 

 

1 hour ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

The thing is no matter how some want to say it was a sleetfest in this area many places in Dutchess and Ulster got between 4 and 5 and some places close to 6. It may have been a little less than expected but it also wasn't a total bust. 

If it wasn't a bust, then did the models really all suck? I love a good paradox.

[HeadInTheClouds]

8 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

 

If it wasn't a bust, then did the models really all suck? I love a good paradox.

Not a total bust in Dutchess and Ulster is what I said. More of a bust in other areas like north of NYC and LHV where many models(Euro, GFS, Ukie) were colder and gave those areas snow. NWS was calling for 2-4 in those areas and many got just sleet. Most of the models have not done a good job this winter. CMC/Rgem have been the best and did a good job with this one actually.