EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: It's funny how people keep dismissing the gfs when it has been doing well this winter. Who is dismissing it? It's part of the equation. I do not think it will score a coup against all the other models though. They will likely meet somewhere in the middle. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 I am posting the 18z GFS clown map results from the two different sites that we use. I think that this could lead to a useful discussion about why one of these might be better to use to use vs the other. I am not being critical in any way of either site, both are useful however one of them seems to do a better job in relating temps in the mid-levels to actual precip types and amounts. The major differences shown here are the snow amounts in the DC - Baltimore area. TT Pivotal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 13 minutes ago, Tatamy said: I am posting the 18z GFS clown map results from the two different sites that we use. I think that this could lead to a useful discussion about why one of these might be better to use to use vs the other. I am not being critical in any way of either site, both are useful however one of them seems to do a better job in relating temps in the mid-levels to actual precip types and amounts. The major differences shown here are the snow amounts in the DC - Baltimore area. TT Pivotal Despite them getting made fun of I have found kuchera maps are pretty reasonable outside of the really big storms where they tend to be overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 25 minutes ago, Tatamy said: I am posting the 18z GFS clown map results from the two different sites that we use. I think that this could lead to a useful discussion about why one of these might be better to use to use vs the other. I am not being critical in any way of either site, both are useful however one of them seems to do a better job in relating temps in the mid-levels to actual precip types and amounts. The major differences shown here are the snow amounts in the DC - Baltimore area. TT Pivotal One includes sleet the other dose not 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 50 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's funny how people keep dismissing the gfs when it has been doing well this winter. kinda like yourself ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: kinda like yourself ???? You are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Who is dismissing it? It's part of the equation. I do not think it will score a coup against all the other models though. They will likely meet somewhere in the middle. I'm not as pessimistic as forky though he is correct about how far north the PV is...the main issue despite the high being in a decent spot is its almost too far west potentially...you'd really prefer that whole elongated high complex be about 500 miles more east and in place earlier...ultimately if the GFS track verified it would not matter but if something more amped happened you'd have a better shot at a long period of snow if the air mass was anchored in place for a day in advance and you had deep cold air..otherwise there would be a risk of a ton of sleet 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: One includes sleet the other dose not Isn't sleet counted as snow at a 2:1 ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Isn't sleet counted as snow at a 2:1 ratio? 3:1. 1” liquid=3” sleet. I’m not totally dismissing the GFS either but I’d wager pretty big that it’s a good bit too suppressed and cold, and that NYC would get a lot of mixing with a setup like this. This looks like one of the 07-08 SWFE events that ended up clobbering I-90 and we hoped for a few hours of heavy snow to start. It does work out sometimes like 2/22/08. I’d like to see a lot more confluence in place to force the redevelopment south enough to keep us all snow. Right now I don’t see it there and see it being a more typical SWFE outcome. And we’re forgetting how way much warmer the Canadian is, although that might also be overdone on the other end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Isn't sleet counted as snow at a 2:1 ratio? 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: 3:1. 1” liquid=3” sleet. I’m not totally dismissing the GFS either but I’d wager pretty big that it’s a good bit too suppressed and cold, and that NYC would get a lot of mixing with a setup like this. This looks like one of the 07-08 SWFE events that ended up clobbering I-90 and we hoped for a few hours of heavy snow to start. It does work out sometimes like 2/22/08. I’d like to see a lot more confluence in place to force the redevelopment south enough to keep us all snow. Right now I don’t see it there and see it being a more typical SWFE outcome. And we’re forgetting how way much warmer the Canadian is, although that might also be overdone on the other end. Not On the map that was posted. It’s being included as snow on a 10-1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 The GFS is 10" and the EURO/CMC are near nothing. Some members probably did better this PM with the snow squalls. The GFS gets to 7* to boot. It is high on PCB>>>Precip.,Cold and Bullsh.t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Not On the map that was posted. It’s being included as snow on a 10-1 ratio. Yes-I never look at those maps other than for lols. At least that map gives the disclaimer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 0Z GFS with another bump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 48 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The GFS is 10" and the EURO/CMC are near nothing. Some members probably did better this PM with the snow squalls. The GFS gets to 7* to boot. It is high on PCB>>>Precip.,Cold and Bullsh.t. The GFS is trending already to the other globals but the question is does it trend all the way or do they meet somewhere in the middle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Whoa. One squall and we are back in model hugging mode for next weekend? Im in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: The GFS is trending already to the other globals but the question is does it trend all the way or do they meet somewhere in the middle. My guess is for NYC south the majority will be in the form of liquid precip later next week.........that was quite a jump north in 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: My guess is for NYC south the majority will be in the form of liquid precip later next week.........that was quite a jump north in 6 hours I think you are jumping the gun on that right now. Even the CMC keeps NYC metro mostly frozen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 25 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: The GFS is trending already to the other globals but the question is does it trend all the way or do they meet somewhere in the middle. Probably somewhere in the middle. NYC and PHL could easily get a few inches, with just north getting more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 The CMC did not make a notable change...it probably was not as far north once it reached PA but its still mostly PL or RA near the coast..the CMC/Euro having that front running shortwave which washes out over the MA probably is having some impact on the end solution of the main system but at this range not sure how Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I think you are jumping the gun on that right now. Even the CMC keeps NYC metro mostly frozen. Yeah, the CMC came in colder than the 12z run. Gives us quite a bit of sleet. Way too early to know what precip types we're gonna have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: My guess is for NYC south the majority will be in the form of liquid precip later next week.........that was quite a jump north in 6 hours Pretty sure it’ll be an event where we hope for a pounding when the mid layers are still cold enough that can add up to 3-5” unless the evolution changes drastically. The real goods will be Boston to Buffalo. And hopefully the high doesn’t back down or become one that scoots out as soon as the WAA starts. These SWFEs have to evolve perfectly for around NYC to do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 53 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yes-I never look at those maps other than for lols. At least that map gives the disclaimer. it's also interesting that long island always seems to be a snowhole on those maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Pretty sure it’ll be an event where we hope for a pounding when the mid layers are still cold enough that can add up to 3-5” unless the evolution changes drastically. The real goods will be Boston to Buffalo. And hopefully the high doesn’t back down or become one that scoots out as soon as the WAA starts. These SWFEs have to evolve perfectly for around NYC to do well. this does seem to be right time of year for overperformance to occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I think you are jumping the gun on that right now. Even the CMC keeps NYC metro mostly frozen. Yea the CMC verbatim is Valentines Day 2007 all over again for NYC but I'm not sure I buy that solution. Ukie doesn't show precip types but looking at surface/925 temps looks like it would mainly rain for the city. Will be interesting to see what Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Pretty sure it’ll be an event where we hope for a pounding when the mid layers are still cold enough that can add up to 3-5” unless the evolution changes drastically. The real goods will be Boston to Buffalo. And hopefully the high doesn’t back down or become one that scoots out as soon as the WAA starts. These SWFEs have to evolve perfectly for around NYC to do well. Typically we only get one of those crap mid layer events when we have a real stale air mass in place or the system is an absolute bomb...in this case right now we do not really have either one at this range but that could change, especially the latter...the former I doubt as the air mass looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I think you are jumping the gun on that right now. Even the CMC keeps NYC metro mostly frozen. I said majority - thinking 75 % liquid and 25 % frozen mainly at the start and maybe some frozen at the tail end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Just now, LibertyBell said: this does seem to be right time of year for overperformance to occur It can happen in the right situation. 2/22/08 is around this time of year lol. 12/5/03 is the gold standard. But it’s 2-3:1 for these to be lousy sleet to rain events here while it piles up in Boston because of a lousy high or charging primary that doesn’t transfer in forever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea the CMC verbatim is Valentines Day 2007 all over again for NYC but I'm not sure I buy that solution. Ukie doesn't show precip types but looking at surface/925 temps looks like it would mainly rain for the city. Will be interesting to see what Euro shows. the good thing about VD 2007 was it stayed below freezing here throughout the event on the south shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Just now, NEG NAO said: I said majority - thinking 75 % liquid and 25 % frozen mainly at the start and maybe some frozen at the tail end when you say liquid do you mean as its falling but freezing when it hits the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Just now, LibertyBell said: when you say liquid do you mean as its falling but freezing when it hits the ground? that is impossible to predict this far out what the temp will be at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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