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February 24/25 Potential Winter Storm


mikem81
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6 hours ago, RU848789 said:

We've had freezing rain for the last few hours, but the precip has just let up quite a bit as a dry slot has hit most of CNJ/SNJ.  Just looked closely at some small branches and I'd estimate between 0.10 and 0.15" of ice accretion. The freezing rain and the 1/4" or so of sleet that fell earlier have combined to make an icy/slushy mess on all surfaces.  

My driveway is extremely slippery as is the road in front of my house (very lightly traveled overnight) - watching some TV coverage and cams, the more heavily traveled major roads in the 95 corridorappear to be mostly wet but reports are that NW of here parts of roads like 78 and 287 are icier. It's still 31F here, but temps just SE of here in Old Bridge and Keyport are 33F so warmer air is finally getting down to the surface.  I'd expect the 95 corridor to get above 32F by ~7 am, but it will take til mid-morning a bit NW of here.  Time for some sleep...

Along and near 95, like here in Metuchen, we were fortunate temps went above 32F from about 7-10 am (33-34F), allowing melting of the ice on paved surfaces (aided by the indirect sun), so my driveway/sidewalk and street in front of my house are now just wet, but temps have dropped back to 31-32F in the area and not much of the ice on the trees/cars melted, as per the pics. By my eyeball it looks like about 0.15-0.20" of ice accretion on branches (which probably was 1/4" at its worst). We had that on the paved surfaces this morning until at least 6 am when I fell asleep. Here are a couple of pics: a bush from my front yard showing the ice accretion and the view of the pond and trees across the street. Freezing rain is so dangerous, but you have to admit it's exquisitely beautiful to look at.

 

FBmt79K.jpg

 

9PjYodA.jpg

 

 

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It seems like we dodged the worst of the freezing rain up here in Sparta.  There isn't much ice accretion on trees and power lines.   However, what's on the ground is a crust overtop of paste which is causing real problems on some side streets, sidewalks, and driveways.  Snow blowers can't do this, so it's a lot of scraping.   Temp is currently 33.4 with light rain, and I think TWC is full of it with a forecasted high of 43 (which would be helpful if it verified, but probably not happening).

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51 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Some photos just taken. The ice is slowly starting to melt off so I think we're just above freezing. 

IMG_2262.jpg

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Do yourself a favor and cut the English Ivy at the base before it kills your trees.

looks similar to what we had on the uws, maybe a little more sleet here as accumulation is greater.

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9 minutes ago, Cfa said:

The differences are rather extreme. I’m in Hauppauge and it’s white as snow, yet in Central Islip it’s just wet, this is a latitudinal difference of maybe 3,000 feet.

The south shore was able to get up to 34 while we were stuck at 30 up here. If it was 2 degrees colder during the heavy precip I doubt I’d have power right now since the heavier ZR ran off. The LIE is where the topography changes and becomes much more hilly to the north, so cold air can hang on tougher. 

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4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Do yourself a favor and cut the English Ivy at the base before it kills your trees.

looks similar to what we had on the uws, maybe a little more sleet here as accumulation is greater.

How does it end up killing the tree (I have one here with it too-A norway maple)

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Flurries occurring now in Wantage NJ and 31.3F

My snow blower needed 2-3 passes but it took the load off the rotator cuff on my 1.2" of sleet and maybe a trace of snow and glaze beneath.

NWS is tending by the book on certain criteria for a watch/warning. I don't think it has anything for combined frozen qpf.  Of interest this is not a 24 hour event for all of us... basically a 9 hour event. Not sure if that was taken into account.  

 

Previously noted the much better forecasts of the RGEM/NAM on ptype and resultant snowfall.

Also should be noted the value of the SREF throughout. I thought it was again much better than the Globals on snowfall and freezing rain.  

 

 

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34 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

2.3” of pure sleet, that was lots of fun cleaning up, and now freezing drizzle… lovely stuff, not. 28/25.  Would’ve preferred for the hot air to win out than this mess. 

Almost the same deal here, 2.1" of sleet and now ZR. There's definitely a little bit of novelty with the sleet and how it behaves so much differently than snow, but it's a short-lived curiosity. 

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5 hours ago, BxEngine said:

I havent had any plain rain to even get freezing rain. Probably saved this area. Sleet and ice pellets arent too awful to drive on.

It rained from the start at about 1am, never stopped even while it was pouring sleet and teeny ice crystals (snow?). The rain finally stopped about 10 minutes ago at the same time it popped to 33°. 

That was the worst 3 hours of frozen-mystery-material removal in a few years. Thank goodness it was warming up through it not getting colder... ~2" of crystally, ball bearing like stuff that was very wet at the bottom. Yuck.

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