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February 24/25 Potential Winter Storm


mikem81
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All of Long Island is now under a Winter Weather Advisory
through this morning`s commute. Large dewpoint depressions
preceding the precip onset along with a more backed wind flow
than what was modeled is helping keep temps across LI at or just
below freezing early this morning with a slow warmup as the
morning commute progresses. Blended in HRRR hourly temps with
the previous forecast to better capture the temperature trends.

Otherwise, more sleet and freezing rain and less snow has
occurred than previously thought. Snow/sleet accumulations have
been lowered, however ice accretion forecast has been bumped up
in many areas, but still within advisory criteria. For coastal
areas, the ice accumulation will be primarily on untreated
surfaces as temps will likely be at least 30. Farther inland,
better chances of accretion of all surface as temps are in the
mid to upper 20s. The previously existing Winter Weather
Advisories remain unchanged for timing, but snow/sleet and ice
accumulations have been adjusted accordingly.
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2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

 

Back to mostly freezing rain at 31F with a few sleet pellets mixed in.  Wondering if that's it for the sleet or not here.  Already have probably 0.05" of ice accretion on trees - easiest place to estimate that, since the sleet didn't accumulate on the branches.  Very slick out right now.  

We've had freezing rain for the last few hours, but the precip has just let up quite a bit as a dry slot has hit most of CNJ/SNJ.  Just looked closely at some small branches and I'd estimate between 0.10 and 0.15" of ice accretion. The freezing rain and the 1/4" or so of sleet that fell earlier have combined to make an icy/slushy mess on all surfaces.  

My driveway is extremely slippery as is the road in front of my house (very lightly traveled overnight) - watching some TV coverage and cams, the more heavily traveled major roads in the 95 corridorappear to be mostly wet but reports are that NW of here parts of roads like 78 and 287 are icier. It's still 31F here, but temps just SE of here in Old Bridge and Keyport are 33F so warmer air is finally getting down to the surface.  I'd expect the 95 corridor to get above 32F by ~7 am, but it will take til mid-morning a bit NW of here.  Time for some sleep...

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530AM report from Wantage NJ.  0.8" ice pellets on top of the starter glaze. Temp not budging...22F here in this southern part of Wantage. Removal will be slow. Sanded roads, no plowing yet here in this residential rural location. Walt530AM report from  rural location.

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5 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Temperatures on Long Island starting to creep up near or just above freezing, especially on the east end where it is in the mid 30s. Just across the sound temps are still in the 20s  and even low to mid 20s not to far north of the city.

Is 31 not mis 30s lol

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Alot of ice here in the bx. Much more than the last time. Thick coating everywhere, a quarter inch ice on some surfaces, but some of that is sleet holding it together so dunno how you measure that. Some sagging trees along Pelham Pkwy. Right now freezing rain and sleet mix and 30.

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Wantage NJ (this southern part). 1" solid sleet depth on top of the starter glaze and now moderate mixed sleet and freezing rain and holding firm at 22.5!  Recommend clearing this stuff midday-afternoon when temps make it to near freezing and solar does its thing. Have to get it cleared by 8P, otherwise plummeting temps lock up the ice. 

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