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February 24/25 Potential Winter Storm


mikem81
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TWC is actually calling for 0.1-0.25" of ZR for most of the 95 corridor and 1/4-3/4" of ZR not far NW of 95 in eastern PA (mostly north of 276) and in NJ N of 202 - that may be overstated, but there are several models that are showing that right now, as others have posted - they typically don't overdo it on their forecasts (of course they hype what they think is going to happen, but they don't overdo what is going to happen) and I watch them pretty closely. That could be a major nightmare for overnight travel and could even lead to power outages.  Hopefully, temps get above 32F anywhere near 95 by 5-6 am, limiting impact to just the overnight hours before rush hour, but the rush hour 10+ miles NW of 95 and especially N of 276 in PA and N of 202 in NJ/ will likely be impacted significantly with temps not going above 32F until mid morning for many.

We have a mix of sleet and freezing rain here in Metuchen that just started getting heavier and we already have some ice on cars and trees, but not on paved surfaces yet, but that will likely occur soon with temps at 31-32F. Will be an interesting night that many won't see, lol.  

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We're now getting moderate to heavy sleet here and it's down to 31F.  Already a light accumulation on all surfaces, with my driveway/sidewalk and street in front of the house starting to get slick.  No idea if we're going to get more sleet or ZR the next few hours, but it looks like it's going to get pretty dicey out there.  

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I've always thought the dual pol radar was the best one to differentiate sleet from other precip types  I assume in the pic below that the yellows are the highly reflected signals from the ice pellets, while the "clear red" (south of 80 in NJ and extending W of Trenton in PA for a bit) is rain or freezing rain.  I'm assuming there is no radar that can actually "detect" freezing rain (since rain and freezing rain are identical while falling) and that radars that show ZR are using some built in algorithm that knows the depth of the <32F layer at/near the surface.  Is there a good "radar" that shows where the ZR is or should I just look to see where it's below 32F?  

 

image.thumb.png.313efb8dfc6adc3b886df3042b01206f.png

 

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34 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

We're now getting moderate to heavy sleet here and it's down to 31F.  Already a light accumulation on all surfaces, with my driveway/sidewalk and street in front of the house starting to get slick.  No idea if we're going to get more sleet or ZR the next few hours, but it looks like it's going to get pretty dicey out there.  

It's pouring sleet out there right now - we got 1/4" of sleet in the last 30 minutes, which is 1.5" of snow equivalent per hour, roughly.  Everything is covered and roads are very slick.  Glad we're getting sleet and hopefully it'll be for awhile.  Interestingly, the dual pol looks like the sleet shouldn't be falling here, but it is.  31F still. 

Fortunately, few people have to travel between now and 5-6 am, when I think we'll be above 32F along 95, allowing some melting to occur, although there will still likely be some slushy areas on the roads if temps don't go above 32F until 5-6 am (not everything melts magically at 33-34F, which is where it'll be through 8-9 am). Anywhere it's not above 32F by 7 am is going to be in for a real mess tomorrow morning, assuming we get several hours of at least moderate sleet and then freezing rain.  

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23 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

It's pouring sleet out there right now - we got 1/4" of sleet in the last 30 minutes, which is 1.5" of snow equivalent per hour, roughly.  Everything is covered and roads are very slick.  Glad we're getting sleet and hopefully it'll be for awhile.  Interestingly, the dual pol looks like the sleet shouldn't be falling here, but it is.  31F still. 

Fortunately, few people have to travel between now and 5-6 am, when I think we'll be above 32F along 95, allowing some melting to occur, although there will still likely be some slushy areas on the roads if temps don't go above 32F until 5-6 am (not everything melts magically at 33-34F, which is where it'll be through 8-9 am). Anywhere it's not above 32F by 7 am is going to be in for a real mess tomorrow morning, assuming we get several hours of at least moderate sleet and then freezing rain.  

Back to mostly freezing rain at 31F with a few sleet pellets mixed in.  Wondering if that's it for the sleet or not here.  Already have probably 0.05" of ice accretion on trees - easiest place to estimate that, since the sleet didn't accumulate on the branches.  Very slick out right now.  

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11 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

Yes/ no.  It's a federal research facility that researches things like hoof and mouth disease and things of that sort.  It's getting shut down.  New level 4 facility that can research animal to human viruses is being built/ finished in Kansas.

yeah they got too much media attention lol.  I remember someone said (I think it was Jesse Ventura, who was governor of MN at the time), that Lyme Disease was developed there.  That was a LOL but I guess they got a lot of negative press for that.  I just hope that "research" doesn't include making new viruses....I know the KGB were doing that in the Caucasus back during the Cold War days.  Area 51 being moved from Groom Lake, Nevada to the Rockies in Utah for a similar reason....attracted too much attention and people trying to video the weird takeoffs and landings from nearby mountains.  The VTOL aircraft that fly in and out of there seem otherworldly.

 

 

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11 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The February 2010 storm didn’t have southerly winds. Snow on long island on a south wind is extremity rare. There was a ocean effect snow event on a SW wind return flow that NSWEATHER posted about. That was a once in a couple decade event. 

we had snow on a southerly wind in the snowicane late at night, I remember JM commented on it, like when does that ever happen lol.  I think that was while it was retrograding?  I love stacked storms for that reason, they do unusual and crazy things lol.

 

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