February 24/25 Potential Winter Storm

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said:

It's not really true that this was a never going to be an event for NYC. Even as of yesterday most models had NYC mostly sleetstorm. The storm is tracking too far north now and the high is weaker and displaced. Amazing how it could trend so bad in 24 hours but not amazing at the same time knowing how these trend.

     I am not sure yet about the ZR threat inland because surface doesn't look that cold and my guess is the areas far enough north to be in the 20s will be mostly sleet but I guess you know you area best if you can accreete well at 30 degrees.   

The only two seasons these didn't trend warmer were in 93-94 and the second half of 06-07 and the one storm in Feb 08

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what is it that makes some storms mostly snowy on an east wind and others arent?  Especially in late February and early March when we have our coldest SST

I distinctly remember the late Feb 2010 blockbuster being all snow on a southerly wind.

 

The February 2010 storm didn’t have southerly winds. Snow on long island on a south wind is extremity rare. There was a ocean effect snow event on a SW wind return flow that NSWEATHER posted about. That was a once in a couple decade event. 

[Doorman]

 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, Doorman said:

 

Rain

[mob1]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Rain

There are many people in this subforum that get frozen precipitation there. There's a world outside of Brooklyn (and it's beautiful). 

[Rjay]

I haven't looked at anything today.  Did the NAM win yet?

[JustinRP37]

Looks good for 2-4 in Westchester with a shift to alert and freezing rain. Don’t know why it is all doom and gloom in here. Ski areas look like they will get some natural and also be able to fire up the guns to prolong the season a few more weeks. 

[wthrmn654]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

no one lives on Plum Island do they?  Thats where the military had their horrendous virus experiment facility which was shuttered and moved to Kansas if I remember correctly.

Yes/ no.  It's a federal research facility that researches things like hoof and mouth disease and things of that sort.  It's getting shut down.  New level 4 facility that can research animal to human viruses is being built/ finished in Kansas.

[JustinRP37]

Why’d I get weenied for literally saying what guidance is? Hear me out if you hate winter move… plenty of areas don’t get winter. If you hate summer move further north, still plenty of areas. 

[Doorman]

mt holly disco

With the primary low tracking to our west, warm air advection aloft
will occur over our area. And with a strong parent shortwave and
potent southwesterly LLJ ahead of the low, warm advection will be
quite strong. However, a strong center of high pressure to our north
will help keep colder air entrenched near the surface. We`ll also
see some evaporational cooling effects once steadier precipitation
moves in. The eventual development of the secondary low will also
act to back the winds and attempt to draw cooler air into the region
north of the new low.

Trends in today`s guidance were generally warmer with the overall
evolution of the storm, especially aloft. The NAM has been leading
the charge in this camp, and while it may be a little too aggressive
bringing in the warmer air aloft, the other guidance seems to be
playing catch-up to it. With the strong shortwave and good jet
dynamics in play, it makes sense that the primary low would track a
little further west (more amplified) and lead to stronger warm
advection. However, there was less change in the surface temperature
forecast, as low level cold is always very difficult to dislodge,
and a prolonged period of wintry precipitation is still expected.
The end result was less snow and more sleet in the forecast, and
still several hours of freezing rain for many areas as well.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

[wthrmn654]

So, looking at the 3km temps at surface long Island is borderline on the freezing mark (+/-) till about 13 or 14z. Seems the surface wants to try and hold onto colder temps as long as it can.  It gets more life 34-35 after that for a bit.  But still.  Hmm

 

[wthrmn654]

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Some weak shortwave energy is traversing across the region
this afternoon within a nearly zonal flow aloft. A few snow
flurries and ice pellets have been reported under some light
returns, but expect the activity has diminished as the energy
departs. The low level atmosphere is very dry still as high
pressure ridges down from southeast Canada.

Attention then turns to a strong vortmax approaching from the
Great Lakes region overnight. In response to this system, low
pressure develops over the Ohio Valley tonight with a weaker
secondary wave possible forming near or just south of Long
Island late tonight into Friday morning. The primary low will
become absorbed into the secondary low by Friday afternoon as
the system departs off the New England coast.

The global models and high resolution models have continued to
come into better agreement on both the large scale evolution
and the mesoscale. This has led to increased forecast confidence
over the last 12 to 24 hours. No changes were made to the
coverage of the winter weather advisories, but have adjusted the
end time to 10 am Friday for NYC metro and NW Long Island and 3
pm Friday for southern Connecticut.

Precipitation develops from southwest to northeast across the
region late this evening into the early morning hours. Strong
warm advection in the middle levels may be briefly offset by wet
bulb cooling and precipitation dynamics. This will yield a
quick burst of snow even at the coast. However, the snow will be
short-lived and may quickly mix with or change completely to
sleet shortly after precip onset due to warm air aloft. An
increasing easterly flow will then help boost surface
temperatures above freezing around day break. This will
effectively bring a change to plain rain across Long Island and
southern portions of the NYC metro. There could be a brief
period of freezing rain, specificually for the NYC metro and NW
Long Island around day break which could bring a light glaze of
ice. For this reason, have left the Winter Weather Advisory in
place here especially due to the timing around the morning
commute.

Away from the immediate coast, there will likely be a few more
hours of snow, possibly moderate to locally heavy at times.
Interior NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and interior SW CT will
lie just on the colder side of the thermal gradient initally,
which briefly enhances frontogenesis. Snowfall rates of around 1
inch per hour are possible here early Friday morning through
around day break.

The middle level low track of this system is not favorable for
precipitation to remain all snow across the interior. The track
of the low well to the north and west of the area will allow
the warm advection aloft to bring temperatures between 850 mb
and 700 mb above freezing. This will change the snow to sleet
initially as the low level cold air looks dense enough. However,
easterly flow will warm the low levels bringing a change to
freezing rain and potentially rain before ending around midday.

Locations along the CT coast and southern Lower Hudson Valley
will see a bit more snow/sleet than closer to NYC metro and
Long Island, but the warming both aloft and at the surface will
bring a transition to freezing rain and then plain rain shortly
after day break.

By mid morning, saturation aloft diminishes and the precip intensity
likely drops off. Most locations should see liquid precip with the
highest chance of freezing rain across the interior.

Total snow/sleet accumulations have been adjusted downward given
the continued warming trend. These amounts may need to be
adjusted downard further, especially if the transition to sleet
is quicker. 2 to 5 inches of snow/sleet is expected across the
interior, highest along and north of I-84, dropping to less than
an inch for much of NYC and Long Island.

Total ice acretion amounts remain similar overall with a glaze
to a tenth across the NYC metro, SW CT, NW LI, to one to two
tenths further inland.

The models have trended faster with the end of the precip and
have adjusted the forecast accordingly with mostly dry
conditions in the afternoon except for southeast CT. No precip
is expected during the evening commute. Highs should reach the
middle and upper 30s, to around 40 at the coast. Winds are not a
concern with the system, but could gust to around 20-25 mph
near the coast in the morning. Winds will pick up behind the
system late Friday, gusting 25-30 mph by evening. No precip is
expected for the Friday evening commute.

[White Gorilla]

23 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Why’d I get weenied for literally saying what guidance is? Hear me out if you hate winter move… plenty of areas don’t get winter. If you hate summer move further north, still plenty of areas. 

Because he doesn't have a life.  Typical troll. Just expect that from him. 

Weenie tagging everyone here is all he has to look forward to everyday

[wthrmn654]

Well I'm scratching my head again tonight.  Weather Channel on TV,  all day has said 3-5 inches for my area on the ticker on bottom screen for several nearby Locations.  Can't really figure that one out at all...

[NJwx85]

The 18z RGEM is almost all sleet.

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The February 2010 storm didn’t have southerly winds. Snow on long island on a south wind is extremity rare. There was a ocean effect snow event on a SW wind return flow that NSWEATHER posted about. That was a once in a couple decade event. 

https://www.northshorewx.com/oes20050119.html

[Rtd208]

Current temp is 34/DP 12 here.

[jm1220]

NWS down to a coating-1 inch for the city and anyone on LI before the washout. So I guess the advisory's for the possible glaze of ice? 

I hate SWFEs, the one in 10 that miraculously work out here aren't worth my interest. They're climo-reminder, rich get richer gradient storms. Screw that. And they have the Lucy raising the football last second north trends too.

[HeadInTheClouds]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This didn’t age well….https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2022022406&fh=48

You should be the one bringing up other people's posts. Pot meet kettle.  I could write a novel of your posts that were embarrassingly incorrect. I wrote that because it showed stupid amounts north of 84, like 3 inches for Albany and 1 for Poughkeepsie. It has since corrected to a more reasonable output especially in the Capital District. It is still the warmest of the models and did the storm happen already? We will see what verifies. 

[BxSnowWx37]

The temp never went above freezing here. It's 31f with a dp of 9. Low level cold isn't going anywhere. As I mentioned before its gonna be a ice rink,even for nyc. The rain will be down to a drizzle by the time it transitions.

[HeadInTheClouds]

On 2/23/2022 at 11:21 AM, snowman19 said:

This is working out exactly as it looked days ago…..a non event for snow and big ping fest going to all rain south of I-84. The GFS is trash, too cold as usual, I think the ICON is actually better. The NAM is the way to go. This one is going to continue to trend north and warmer in the midlevels right up until tomorrow afternoon

You really want to play that game? Look at the forecast in your own backyard numbskull. 

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

You should be the one bringing up other people's posts. Pot meet kettle.  I could write a novel of your posts that were embarrassingly incorrect. I wrote that because it showed stupid amounts north of 84, like 3 inches for Albany and 1 for Poughkeepsie. It has since corrected to a more reasonable output especially in the Capital District. It is still the warmest of the models and did the storm happen already? We will see what verifies. 

It was definitely too amped but that's a well documented bias of the NAM. At some point yesterday it had sleet into central VT but has since come south a fair bit. On the flip side, some models were too far south. They ultimately met in the middle. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

It was definitely too amped but that's a well documented bias of the NAM. At some point yesterday it had sleet into central VT but has since come south a fair bit. On the flip side, some models were too far south. They ultimately met in the middle. 

Yes, that was my point. It was OTL especially along and north of I90. 

[NJwx85]

It's going to snow in the Hudson Valley and points North for at least a few hours.

HRRR also trended colder from the previous run.

[ForestHillWx]

30/11 currently. Ice ice baby…

[BxSnowWx37]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's going to snow in the Hudson Valley and points North for at least a few hours.

HRRR also trended colder from the previous run.

Tbh it's prob gonna trend a bit cooler. Even for nyc,it looks more then a inch of snow esp if it's moving fast. Also on almost every model 950's temps never go above freezing,esp for westchester county and the bronx,Northern Manhattan. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's going to snow in the Hudson Valley and points North for at least a few hours.

HRRR also trended colder from the previous run.

Yes, and NWS talking about 1-2 inch per hour rates overnight where it does snow. 

[Metasequoia]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's going to snow in the Hudson Valley and points North for at least a few hours.

HRRR also trended colder from the previous run.

Let's stop calling off the storm before it happens...unless you are pining away for all snow, then it is over. That was never really a possibility. The latest HRRR is not a bad look for a real winter day for metro and LI north.

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

Let's stop calling off the storm before it happens...unless you are pining away for all snow, then it is over. That was never really a possibility. The latest HRRR is not a bad look for a real winter day for metro and LI north.

Yeah this still needs to be watched from LGA on W-N...there are still indications on all guidance of surface winds backing somewhat to 050-070 after 09-10z...and typically they underestimate the degree of backing when they show that and it ends up more 030-050..if that happens places like NE NJ/NYC/N Queens/Bronx are going to have problems 

[HVSnowLover]

The latest HRRR was a little more promising but we'll see. For IMBY 1-2 inches of sleet/snow cement and staying mostly frozen feels would be a win with this.