NJwx85 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: I don't think anyone is even saying that or accusing anyone of suggesting that. You have a few people talking about how this is a non event for the coast like it's breaking news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxSnowWx37 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I know that this is hard for you to believe but it's the short term, high resolution models like the one I posted that you should be looking at right now. Not the globals and not the clueless NAM. The 3k NAM does have some skill but this should be your red flag here. When the UKMET is only showing temps topping out in the lower 30's and then dropping like a rock you should probably think twice considering it has a known warm bias. Again, this isn't a big deal for the city. IT WAS NEVER GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL FOR THEM OR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THAT'S THE TRADEOFF OF LIVING NEAR THE OCEAN AND SURROUNDED BY CONCRETE. Its funny you put this up because that basically what my last post said. Its cold and low level cold air doesn't retreat easy. Even at the coast it might be close. Northern Manhattan and the bronx might barely see any liquid precip,most of what falls will be frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Idk about other areas but temps are several degrees lower then forecast out here on the east end. Could be -20 right now. When winds switch to easterly it won’t matter and it’ll warm right up near the coast. That’s our problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I know that this is hard for you to believe but it's the short term, high resolution models like the one I posted that you should be looking at right now. Not the globals and not the clueless NAM. The 3k NAM does have some skill but this should be your red flag here. When the UKMET is only showing temps topping out in the lower 30's and then dropping like a rock you should probably think twice considering it has a known warm bias. Again, this isn't a big deal for the city. IT WAS NEVER GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL FOR THEM OR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THAT'S THE TRADEOFF OF LIVING NEAR THE OCEAN AND SURROUNDED BY CONCRETE. It's not really true that this was a never going to be an event for NYC. Even as of yesterday most models had NYC mostly sleetstorm. The storm is tracking too far north now and the high is weaker and displaced. Amazing how it could trend so bad in 24 hours but not amazing at the same time knowing how these trend. I am not sure yet about the ZR threat inland because surface doesn't look that cold and my guess is the areas far enough north to be in the 20s will be mostly sleet but I guess you know you area best if you can accreete well at 30 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, HVSnowLover said: It's not really true that this was a never going to be an event for NYC. Even as of yesterday most models had NYC mostly sleetstorm. The storm is tracking too far north now and the high is weaker and displaced. Amazing how it could trend so bad in 24 hours but not amazing at the same time knowing how these trend. I am not sure yet about the ZR threat inland because surface doesn't look that cold, but I guess you know you area best if you can accreete well at 30 degrees. NYC is still going to get quite a bit of sleet. Nothing has really changed except for the fact that the mid levels have trended warmer and the lower levels have trended colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 17 minutes ago, BxSnowWx37 said: Its funny you put this up because that basically what my last post said. Its cold and low level cold air doesn't retreat easy. Even at the coast it might be close. Northern Manhattan and the bronx might barely see any liquid precip,most of what falls will be frozen. I've learned on this forum upper Manhattan/Bronx are not considered the coast by many on here but they are surrounded by concrete so take it for what is worth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, NJwx85 said: NYC is still going to get quite a bit of sleet. Nothing has really changed except for the fact that the mid levels have trended warmer and the lower levels have trended colder. The low levels have definitely not trended colder. Central Park was not getting plain rain on yesterdays models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: The low levels have definitely not trended colder. Central Park was not getting plain rain on yesterdays models. Yep Models have trended warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, HVSnowLover said: The low levels have definitely not trended colder. Central Park was not getting plain rain on yesterdays models. It depends on your location. And Central Park might get some plain rain but that would be rain falling at 31-32 that doesn't freeze. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 19 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Could be -20 right now. When winds switch to easterly it won’t matter and it’ll warm right up near the coast. That’s our problem. True but surface levels won't warm as fast I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just noticed now it maybe fairly new, but looks like In the winter section on nws Upton, I'm the probabilities area, near bottom where you select the county, they have changed/ updated locations. Orient is now included. Wonder if there are other additions/ removals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 And for those that we talking about um drawing a linefrom like nyc east, yesterday with parts of North fork being so far north, select Suffolk, look at the %chances for possibly seeing snow accumulation by inch category. Orient and plum Island have the highest % out of other locations in Suffolk. Good example of what snowgoose was saying yesterday. And no I'm not saying I'm getting that, simply pointing that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 With the last ice event, the NWS heavily weighted the HRRR and SREF probabilities. The HRRR is still out of range. The SREF probabilities target the same areas as some of the higher res models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Not saying its definitely right but HRRR has most of NYC as rain already by 11z (6 am). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 27 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: With the last ice event, the NWS heavily weighted the HRRR and SREF probabilities. The HRRR is still out of range. The SREF probabilities target the same areas as some of the higher res models. HRRR was good 2 days before the last big event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 51 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It depends on your location. And Central Park might get some plain rain but that would be rain falling at 31-32 that doesn't freeze. The HRRR has it up to 32 anywhere SE of the Tappan Zee Bridge by 6 am and also has it to 32 close to 287 in NJ so not sure where things are trending colder anywhere at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 We need to monitor the wet bulb temperature as precipitation commences. If it's low enough for the city to get down to about 28-29, they might stay below freezing for a while as low level cold is hard to scour out and is often not modelled correctly. Right now (as of 1 o'clock) Central Park was 32/7, obviously the dp will rise a lot as clouds thicken but if they're something like 34/24 when the precipitation moves in they'll probably stay below freezing a bit longer. Given the borderline temperatures, the difference between freezing rain and sleet will be huge, as sleet will accumulate in pretty much any temperature while freezing rain won't be a big deal in anything over 29 or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: HRRR was good 2 days before the last big event HRRR did pretty good with precip types on the 1/16 event so thats the model I'm looking at most from here on out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 A couple flurries here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, mob1 said: We need to monitor the wet bulb temperature as precipitation commences. If it's low enough for the city to get down to about 28-29, they might stay below freezing for a while as low level cold is hard to scour out and is often not modelled correctly. Right now (as of 1 o'clock) Central Park was 32/7, obviously the dp will rise a lot as clouds thicken but if they're something like 34/24 when the precipitation moves in they'll probably stay below freezing a bit longer. Given the borderline temperatures, the difference between freezing rain and sleet will be huge, as sleet will accumulate in pretty much any temperature while freezing rain won't be a big deal in anything over 29 or so. Agree with all this and the difference between wet bulbing to 28/29 vs 31 will be huge especially in northern parts of the city where the colder air would be harder to scour out as fast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Time for an ons thread. Flakes are flying on the uws. I’m expecting 1” of snow followed by 1” of sleet and ice before a change over to rain here on the far uws. 2” of sleet/snow/ice is very hard to melt so I expect a slushy mess tomorrow morning here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, Rjay said: A couple flurries here Mixed flurries and sleet in Westbury. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Could be -20 right now. When winds switch to easterly it won’t matter and it’ll warm right up near the coast. That’s our problem. If it were December this would be an easy forecast for anyone south and east of 80. Rain. With water temps in the upper 30s it makes it more challenging as marine influence is muted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: HRRR was good 2 days before the last big event Yeah it was impressive how the HRRR nailed the February snow event 48 hours in advance, when so many other models were showing little to nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 warm nose in T-12hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Very light snow, 32, Brightwaters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Could be -20 right now. When winds switch to easterly it won’t matter and it’ll warm right up near the coast. That’s our problem. what is it that makes some storms mostly snowy on an east wind and others arent? Especially in late February and early March when we have our coldest SST I distinctly remember the late Feb 2010 blockbuster being all snow on a southerly wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Flurries earlier Snow Pellets Now South Commack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said: And for those that we talking about um drawing a linefrom like nyc east, yesterday with parts of North fork being so far north, select Suffolk, look at the %chances for possibly seeing snow accumulation by inch category. Orient and plum Island have the highest % out of other locations in Suffolk. Good example of what snowgoose was saying yesterday. And no I'm not saying I'm getting that, simply pointing that out. no one lives on Plum Island do they? Thats where the military had their horrendous virus experiment facility which was shuttered and moved to Kansas if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said: I've learned on this forum upper Manhattan/Bronx are not considered the coast by many on here but they are surrounded by concrete so take it for what is worth. Manhattan is borderline, it's on an island so I would say it's coast. Bronx's southern part should be considered coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now