HVSnowLover Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: By 12z Friday it’s rain for nyc south. Frz rain north jersey. Gfs is on its own Not that verbatim maps matter this far out but Bronx/Manhattan change over at 12z at that time an inch of liquid has already fallen..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 imo the pv near greenland is too far north for snow here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 FIRST STORM 24HR TOTALS ON THE GFS ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Euro more progressive but still Mainly rain for nyc. Frz rain for central Pa and Hudson valley 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 I don't think this is a NYC snowstorm by any means but a front end thump is definitely possible with lingering frozen precip in or near the city because of the high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 27 minutes ago, forkyfork said: imo the pv near greenland is too far north for snow here Dam. Hopefully the following pattern is productive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro more progressive but still Mainly rain for nyc. Frz rain for central Pa and Hudson valley The Euro completely torches the midlevels before the precip even starts 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 EURO got a bit colder. Especially for north show of LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 GFS is interesting but as others pointed out likely too suppressed. These storms highly favor I-90. Hopefully we pick up a few hours of heavy snow to start on the front end but unless there’s a major change in the evolution it looks like a fairly typical SWFE heading into a strong high to me. Thankfully at this point the warm ocean isn’t the kiss of death near the coast it would be in December so hopefully most of the storm wouldn’t be a washout. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: EURO got a bit colder. Especially for north show of LI. The euro actually got a lot more progressive with suprisingly little liquid overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Euro completely torches the midlevels before the precip even starts Way too early to pin down but the mid level low tracks are key for who and how much mixing happens. If the 700/850 lows go NW of you, there will be a lot of sleet/mixing. For most of the storm to be snow anywhere you’d want those lows to redevelop south of you. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: The euro actually got a lot more progressive with suprisingly little liquid overall. Yep trend to the gfs ? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzwalker Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The Euro completely torches the midlevels before the precip even starts Does it torch ? Does it thermally exceed all expectations -- and dash our hopes ?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 20 minutes ago, Blizzwalker said: Does it torch ? Does it thermally exceed all expectations -- and dash our hopes ?? According to him every event is either a torch or a miss and yet it still snows. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said: The euro actually got a lot more progressive with suprisingly little liquid overall. Yup, I noticed that too, it's less amped and in and out pretty quickly. It does give most .5-.7 liquid equivalent though which for me is snow and sleet. Long way to go with this. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: Way too early to pin down but the mid level low tracks are key for who and how much mixing happens. If the 700/850 lows go NW of you, there will be a lot of sleet/mixing. For most of the storm to be snow anywhere you’d want those lows to redevelop south of you. Somehow I remember a similar conversation to this for VD 2007 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 56 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Somehow I remember a similar conversation to this for VD 2007 lol The storm and pattern aren't particularly cold so the sleet to the coast scenario is still questionable but if the high is in the right position that could do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 18Z GFS still way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 GFS coming in a LITTLE north and warmer. CMC and EURO came in a bit south and cooler earlier. Figure some sort of compromise. Still first guess 1 to 3 LI to 84. 3 to 6 north of 84. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: 18Z GFS still way south. It nudged a tad north and warmer. Just like EURO and CMC nudged a tad south earlier. Consensus is to be realized. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: It nudged a tad north and warmer. Just like EURO and CMC nudged a tad south earlier. Consensus is to be realized. Nudged is a key word, it still has 10.5 inches of snow in Toms River. Either way I agree with you about consensus 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: GFS coming in a LITTLE north and warmer. CMC and EURO came in a bit south and cooler earlier. Figure some sort of compromise. Still first guess 1 to 3 LI to 84. 3 to 6 north of 84. Hopefully they keep trending south 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: It nudged a tad north and warmer. Just like EURO and CMC nudged a tad south earlier. Consensus is to be realized. Thats why south Jersey and southeast PA are the jackpot zones 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Thats why south Jersey and southeast PA are the jackpot zones Yup a little north and a little amped from 12 Z. They are moving towards consensus IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yup a little north and a little amped from 12 Z. They are moving towards consensus IMO. consensus of what ???? explain please... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Just now, NEG NAO said: consensus of what ???? explain please... The GEM and the EURO have been trending slightly south last couple of runs. GFS has bumped slightly north last couple runs. They will probably keep trending till they are somewhat close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 26 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Thats why south Jersey and southeast PA are the jackpot zones That map counts sleet as snow. I'd be stunned if S NJ and Philly are jackpotting in a SWFE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Borrowed from MA forum. GEFS for Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 23 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: consensus of what ???? explain please... It's funny how people keep dismissing the gfs when it has been doing well this winter. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now