NJwx85 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Im not too excited for ZR after expecting sleet all week. Also temps go up to upper 30s/40 tomorrow so any ZR will melt immediately. I'd almost rather plain rain at this point if not snow/sleet 40 degrees? I don't think so. Maybe mid to upper 30's at the coast. That's not where the big problems are going to be anyway. And the problems mostly occur while the ice is falling. Once precipitation stops it's over. If temps do get above freezing in the interior it won't be until after everything is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 40 degrees? I don't think so. Maybe mid to upper 30's at the coast. That's not where the big problems are going to be anyway. And the problem is while the ice is falling. Once precipitation stops it's over. If temps do get above freezing in the interior it won't be until after everything is done. Maybe not 40 but several models are now spiking temps to mid 30s well inland, mostly after precip ends but still the small ice accretion will melt fast. Sleet woulda lasted a bit longer because its thick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 This is looking more and more like a no snow event for my area (north shore of central LI) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 HRRR says best chance of wet bulbing and brief mix or change to snow would be around 3 am or so tonight but even that is probably more so only for Northern parts of NYC/North Shore LI and north of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 8:45 AM, MJO812 said: Not one model has this as a pure rain event for NYC You cant wish a snow storm. You cant hype one either. It is either coming or it isnt. There’s enough collective knowledge on here to know this is a bad set up for a city that has a bad set up for winter weather. There is nothing locking cold air in place The low is all the way over by Buffalo and has been modeled as such for a bit The cold air is marginal It was 70 yesterday NYC is a concrete jungle of humanity that hangs onto heat So despite what any model was telling me, I knew that this was a rain storm for New York City. So did you I deleted my post because I didn’t want to piss in anybody’s Wheaties because I respect the knowledge on this site Sorry this one isnt going to work You may get another shot in March… But you probably wont 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Maybe not 40 but several models are now spiking temps to mid 30s well inland, mostly after precip ends but still the small ice accretion will melt fast. Sleet woulda lasted a bit longer because its thick. 0.25-0.50" is not a small ice accretion. Most of that falls with surface temps in the mid to upper 20's over interior NJ and SE NY. Whatever power lines and tree limbs that have fallen by then won't snap back into place because the temperatures rise above freezing lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, justinj said: This is looking more and more like a no snow event for my area (north shore of central LI) Very brief snow to couple hours of sleet to rain for us. I’m thinking an inch or two of crud mostly gone at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 16 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It's an absolute warm outlier and not even close to other guidance. It's not just about warm tongues. Nothing is even close. This didn’t age well….https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2022022406&fh=48 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 And the models continue to get more aggressive with the midlevel warm nose. Good luck getting a snowstorm south of I-84 with those midlevel low tracks. Enjoy the ping fest to freezing rain/rain 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: And the models continue to get more aggressive with the midlevel warm nose. Good luck getting a snowstorm south of I-84 with those midlevel low tracks. Enjoy the ping fest to freezing rain/rain Glad you're happy. Enjoy. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Glad you're happy. Enjoy. He finally got a storm correct ( maybe ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: And the models continue to get more aggressive with the midlevel warm nose. Good luck getting a snowstorm south of I-84 with those midlevel low tracks. Enjoy the ping fest to freezing rain/rain Your trolling is awful. Yup, non event here. Freezing rain during the morning rush after 2-4" of snow, nothing to see here. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 24, 2022 Author Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: You're trolling is awful. Yup, non event here. Freezing rain during the morning rush after 2-4" of snow, nothing to see here. DP forecast is way off so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: He finally got a storm correct ( maybe ) A broken clock is correct twice a day 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 14 minutes ago, snowman19 said: And the models continue to get more aggressive with the midlevel warm nose. Good luck getting a snowstorm south of I-84 with those midlevel low tracks. Enjoy the ping fest to freezing rain/rain Freezing Rain highly unlikely for NYC and immediate surrounding suburbs, at least in any real sense. Brief snow to sleet, then rain by morning. Then again, I've probably been more wrong than right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, Dark Star said: Freezing Rain highly unlikely for NYC and immediate surrounding suburbs, at least in any real sense. Then again, I've probably been more wrong than right. Tough to get ZR to accrete on roads in the urban areas with marginal cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Surface temps are more likely than not going to end up colder than forecast. Areas away from immediate metro should watch out. Primary low is quite weak, it's going to be a struggle warming the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Your trolling is awful. Yup, non event here. Freezing rain during the morning rush after 2-4" of snow, nothing to see here. Yea, let’s find the coldest outlier models and use those. Rockland isn’t getting 4 inches of snow or anything close to it with those midlevel low tracks and the associated midlevel warm nose, but you keep wishcasting that. Let’s just ignore this and the NAM huh: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2022022406&fh=48 Edit: And the RGEM, ignore them all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Freezing Rain highly unlikely for NYC and immediate surrounding suburbs, at least in any real sense. Brief snow to sleet, then rain by morning. Then again, I've probably been more wrong than right. Humility. Our pet troll here could take a page from you. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Tough to get ZR to accrete on roads in the urban areas with marginal cold. And a late October sun angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 38 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Maybe not 40 but several models are now spiking temps to mid 30s well inland, mostly after precip ends but still the small ice accretion will melt fast. Sleet woulda lasted a bit longer because its thick. Temps drop/ crash by 18z roughly speaking last I remember seeing with yesterday's stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, wthrmn654 said: Temps drop/ crash by 18z roughly speaking last I remember seeing with yesterday's stuff. as the coastal takes over they will drop but most of the precip is gone by then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Your trolling is awful. Yup, non event here. Freezing rain during the morning rush after 2-4" of snow, nothing to see here. YOU took the post right off of my keyboard,,,,,,,,,non event,,,,lol how about we wait for the event to begin, didn't snowy learn from the last 2 he got wrong or are you really trying for the 3 peat 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, Brian5671 said: as the coastal takes over they will drop but most of the precip is gone by then Yeah that's why temps likely are mid to possibly upper 30s maximum before dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Freezing Rain highly unlikely for NYC and immediate surrounding suburbs, at least in any real sense. Brief snow to sleet, then rain by morning. Then again, I've probably been more wrong than right. 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Tough to get ZR to accrete on roads in the urban areas with marginal cold. Nobody is talking about an ice storm in the concrete jungle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Idk about other areas but temps are several degrees lower then forecast out here on the east end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxSnowWx37 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Well it's 31 here with a dp of 9f..even with mid level torching..the lower levels aren't going much over freezing even for northern parts of nyc proper. I see this as ice skating rink type of storm with a bit of rain and then snow to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, NJwx85 said: Nobody is talking about an ice storm in the concrete jungle. I don't think anyone is even saying that or accusing anyone of suggesting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yea, let’s find the coldest outlier models and use those. Rockland isn’t getting 4 inches of snow or anything close to it with those midlevel low tracks and the associated midlevel warm nose, but you keep wishcasting that. Let’s just ignore this and the NAM huh: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2022022406&fh=48 Edit: And the RGEM, ignore them all I know that this is hard for you to believe but it's the short term, high resolution models like the one I posted that you should be looking at right now. Not the globals and not the clueless NAM. The 3k NAM does have some skill but this should be your red flag here. When the UKMET is only showing temps topping out in the lower 30's and then dropping like a rock you should probably think twice considering it has a known warm bias. Again, this isn't a big deal for the city. IT WAS NEVER GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL FOR THEM OR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THAT'S THE TRADEOFF OF LIVING NEAR THE OCEAN AND SURROUNDED BY CONCRETE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Again, warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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