wthrmn654 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 3km shifted the freezing rain line way south from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: 3k still looks pretty terrible. Not worried. It's still better than 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 24, 2022 Author Share Posted February 24, 2022 The NAM is known for insane shifts like this. Really just can’t take it seriously until it has 2-3 runs in a row of something similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Nam almost made it back to planet earth. It's still hovering though and deciding whether to land or not. Getting there but still a ways to go before being at consensus. Still spikes most of us from the Tappan Zee on south into the 40s on Fri because of how dominant the primary is/where the secondary forms. But that would be in the dryslot after 95% of precip falls. Verbatim it would be a few inches of slop that would freeze solid on Fri night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: The NAM is known for insane shifts like this. Really just can’t take it seriously until it has 2-3 runs in a row of something similar I wouldnt really take the NAM very seriously until other models shift toward it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 The NAM now basically shows all frozen minus the tail end for NYC metro northern half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The NAM now basically shows all frozen minus the tail end for NYC metro northern half Does that change your thinking at the snower models being more right to an extent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 This is gonna keep ticking colder.. as I said yesterday. That high means business, it's not sliding off to the east. Stout 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Does that change your thinking at the snower models being more right to an extent? Colder doesn't necessarily equal snowier-although thus far the trend today has been for the snow line to also be dropping south. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Changes to rain at the end for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Colder doesn't necessarily equal snowier-although thus far the trend today has been for the snow line to also be dropping south. I should say the colder/ snowier models lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Colder doesn't necessarily equal snowier-although thus far the trend today has been for the snow line to also be dropping south. For a shot at more snow we have to watch the primary and hope it dies off sooner, and the associated mid level lows-hopefully those weaken. That will slow the mid level warm push. But it's a very long shot at it being more than an hour or so at the start. The real chance we have is for it to be more sleet and for the surface warm push to wait until the dryslot is here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Colder doesn't necessarily equal snowier-although thus far the trend today has been for the snow line to also be dropping south. If not snowier, hopefully it will mean more sleet than freezing rain. Been awhile since we've had a significant amount of sleet here. It would be cool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Expect to be woken up by pounding sleet of it occurs lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: For a shot at more snow we have to watch the primary and hope it dies off sooner, and the associated mid level lows-hopefully those weaken. That will slow the mid level warm push. But it's a very long shot at it being more than an hour or so at the start. The real chance we have is for it to be more sleet and for the surface warm push to wait until the dryslot is here. I agree with you but this is the kind of storm that could come in as a wall and dump 1-2 inches of snow in an hour at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: I agree with you but this is the kind of storm that could come in as a wall and dump 1-2 inches of snow in an hour at the start. The stronger precip intensity may delay the changeover also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 RGEM looks like it nudged north from 18z but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: RGEM looks like it nudged north from 18z but not by much. Still looks as if it keeps NYC all frozen for the main part of the event. Several hours of sleet and then several hours of freezing rain. Then a little light plain rain at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, winterwx21 said: Still looks as if it keeps NYC all frozen for the main part of the event. Several hours of sleet and then several hours of freezing rain. Then a little light plain rain at the end. Yes LI goes over to heavy rain for a few hours but the city is all frozen ending as drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 8 hours ago, MGorse said: Sleet is included with snow regarding accumulations. Sleet can be messaged separately if significant but otherwise it is combined. Thanks!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Been a fairly strong ish signal today of freezing rain somewhere near long Island/ NYC zone it would seem, of which likely most of that won't materialize. None the less is also something to keep an eye on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 RGEM looked essentially the same to me. Be careful about the freezing rain output, it's likely overdone. Any precip as rain 32 or below it'll show as ZR (won't all accrete) and it assumes all precip that hour will be ZR. Of course it won't take much ZR for major problems though. A lot of that ZR it shows will hopefully be sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said: Been a fairly strong ish signal today of freezing rain somewhere near long Island/ NYC zone it would seem, of which likely most of that won't materialize. None the less is also something to keep an eye on Nam more modest with the ZR but the signal is still there for same locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 The new high res gfs thing got cooler 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 The only hiccup to this forecast will be also how much the ground can freeze solidly before this all happens... different situation this time versus the last time we had freezing rain few storms ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: RGEM looked essentially the same to me. Be careful about the freezing rain output, it's likely overdone. Any precip as rain 32 or below it'll show as ZR (won't all accrete) and it assumes all precip that hour will be ZR. Of course it won't take much ZR for major problems though. A lot of that ZR it shows will hopefully be sleet. Would be a nightmare during rush hour with these temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Also At this point I think nearly every model meso and general does show a freezing rain zone roughly near NYC zone( roughly speaking) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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