February 24/25 Potential Winter Storm

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm going to use the old line and ask.....aren't all storms gradient storms? lol

 

SWFEs are truly gradient storms in that we have seen a place like Orient Point before get amounts closer to that of SNE because they are so far north...the line is almost always a straight north-south gradient.

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

SWFEs are truly gradient storms in that we have seen a place like Orient Point before get amounts closer to that of SNE because they are so far north...the line is almost always a straight north-south gradient.

That I can agree with 1000000% being in orient point lol

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

SWFEs are truly gradient storms in that we have seen a place like Orient Point before get amounts closer to that of SNE because they are so far north...the line is almost always a straight north-south gradient.

What makes this different is that the high isn't retreating fast like the usually swfe storms. There is a surface reflection off the coast that takes over.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Somewhat but sometimes they are less sharp than others and also we haven't had one set up right over or near the NYC area in a while that I can think of.

I'm trying to remember the greatest difference I can think of....I think it was December 2009 when NYC had 10 inches of snow and JFK had 15 inches, so that was a gradient storm with the further east you go getting you more snow lol

In that respect the January storm was a gradient storm too, because NYC had 8 inches while JFK had 13 inches.

But the north/south gradient storms are actually less common....I can't remember too many of those because the distance between NYC and JFK isn't enough to create a large gradient of that kind

(its more east west than it is north south)

 

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

SWFEs are truly gradient storms in that we have seen a place like Orient Point before get amounts closer to that of SNE because they are so far north...the line is almost always a straight north-south gradient.

But wouldn't you consider all kinds of gradients....like what I mentioned in the previous post, you can have longitude gradients too, where JFK gets a lot more than NYC does, we had that in January and a few other times I remember. I think that's more common than the latitude gradient across the city.

 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm trying to remember the greatest difference I can think of....I think it was December 2009 when NYC had 10 inches of snow and JFK had 15 inches, so that was a gradient storm with the further east you go getting you more snow lol

In that respect the January storm was a gradient storm too, because NYC had 8 inches while JFK had 13 inches.

But the north/south gradient storms are actually less common....I can't remember too many of those because the distance between NYC and JFK isn't enough to create a large gradient of that kind

(its more east west than it is north south)

 

 

Agree the distance in the city is small but the best chance of a big north/south gradient is a storm like this. I still think the snow gradient will ultimately set up north of the city probably somewhere around Central Westchester/Rockland.  

[Brasiluvsnow]

Does anyone remember a similar situation where the SWFE did NOT suddenly shift North at the last moment ? Any setup where there was a similar high in place ? Bueller  ? Bueller ? Anyone ?

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree the distance in the city is small but the best chance of a big north/south gradient is a storm like this. I still think the snow gradient will ultimately set up north of the city probably somewhere around Central Westchester/Rockland.  

Yup I saw a forecast today for like 1" of snow in NYC and 8-9" as close as Yonkers

 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Does anyone remember a similar situation where the SWFE did NOT suddenly shift North at the last moment ? Any setup where there was a similar high in place ? Bueller  ?Bueller ? Anyone ?

I;m interested in the 0Z runs tonight, I'd think if there is a big shift it will happen by 0Z tonight.  

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm trying to remember the greatest difference I can think of....I think it was December 2009 when NYC had 10 inches of snow and JFK had 15 inches, so that was a gradient storm with the further east you go getting you more snow lol

In that respect the January storm was a gradient storm too, because NYC had 8 inches while JFK had 13 inches.

But the north/south gradient storms are actually less common....I can't remember too many of those because the distance between NYC and JFK isn't enough to create a large gradient of that kind

(its more east west than it is north south)

 

 

December 05 was probably the biggest ever, 0 at JFK and 5=6 at LGA/NYC I think.  1/7/94 some far north points of the North Fork had 6-10 inches of snow while most of the remainder of LI was PL or FZRA.  February 99 the N shore of Nassau back into Queens/NYC had a nasty ice storm maybe .25-.40 at 27-29 while the S shore was 35-37

[rgwp96]

13 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

For those going with the mesos look at the progression of the anticipated gradient on the RGEM during today's runs.  Look at 6z, 12z and 18z.  Interesting stuff.

Yea went way south with snow . Let’s see the Nam do the same . 18z Nam 0 for me , 18z euro 9 lol

[Doorman]

11 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

For those going with the mesos look at the progression of the anticipated gradient on the RGEM during today's runs.  Look at 6z, 12z and 18z.  Interesting stuff.

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Yup I saw a forecast today for like 1" of snow in NYC and 8-9" as close as Yonkers

 

The Euro has 7 inches in Yonkers and like 2 inches at JFK but again I think the gradient will set up further north where its more like 2 inches at Yonkers and maybe 7 inches at Peekskill.   

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

December 05 was probably the biggest ever, 0 at JFK and 5=6 at LGA/NYC I think.  1/7/94 some far north points of the North Fork had 6-10 inches of snow while most of the remainder of LI was PL or FZRA.  February 99 the N shore of Nassau back into Queens/NYC had a nasty ice storm maybe .25-.40 at 27-29 while the S shore was 35-37

Oh I remember that storm sucked, I dont think anyone on Long Island got anything, north shore, south shore didn't matter in December 2005.

We had a gradient storm of a different kind in February 2006 when NYC got 26 inches and out here we got like 13 lol.

I actually dont remember January 1994 for anything but ice lol

I dont remember February 1999 for anything at all.

 

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

December 05 was probably the biggest ever, 0 at JFK and 5=6 at LGA/NYC I think.  1/7/94 some far north points of the North Fork had 6-10 inches of snow while most of the remainder of LI was PL or FZRA.  February 99 the N shore of Nassau back into Queens/NYC had a nasty ice storm maybe .25-.40 at 27-29 while the S shore was 35-37

I could see something along those lines happening with this storm, maybe less extreme where it's more like 33-35 on the S shore.  

[mikem81]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

December 05 was probably the biggest ever, 0 at JFK and 5=6 at LGA/NYC I think.  1/7/94 some far north points of the North Fork had 6-10 inches of snow while most of the remainder of LI was PL or FZRA.  February 99 the N shore of Nassau back into Queens/NYC had a nasty ice storm maybe .25-.40 at 27-29 while the S shore was 35-37

December is much more common for huge gradients on the city when the Atlantic is 55 degrees...

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, mikem81 said:

December is much more common for huge gradients on the city when the Atlantic is 55 degrees...

Good point

 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

December is much more common for huge gradients on the city when the Atlantic is 55 degrees...

Definitely November or early December coastals would be the most likely chance of big gradients in the NYC area. However don;'t need a big gradient temp wise to get big gradient in winter precip, 33 vs 30 in the same locations for hours could do it.     

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, mikem81 said:

December is much more common for huge gradients on the city when the Atlantic is 55 degrees...

 

Honestly that one probably was a fail even in February, it was similar to December 9 1995 and January 17 94 in that the 850s barely went above 0C but surface flow was S'ly so that coastal areas torched while 5-10 miles inland was cold enough to stay all snow

[mikem81]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Honestly that one probably was a fail even in February, it was similar to December 9 1995 and January 17 94 in that the 850s barely went above 0C but surface flow was S'ly so that coastal areas torched while 5-10 miles inland was cold enough to stay all snow

[HeadInTheClouds]

So lets see. 18z Euro gives me 12, 18z RGEM 10, 18z GFS 10, plus other mesos who are a bit out of their range give me similar numbers but I'm supposed to believe that Nam actually has a clue with it's 1.5 IMBY and 3 up in Albany and takes the primary well north and develops the secondary over cape cod. Well, I don't. 

[Snowlover11]

in the euro we trust  too bad its been horrible all year.

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

in the euro we trust  too bad its been horrible all year.

So has every model quite frankly. We just don't have a go to model anymore. Precip starts in under 36 hours and still a lot of possible solutions on the table as far as the thermals are concerned. 

[Rjay]

17 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

So lets see. 18z Euro gives me 12, 18z RGEM 10, 18z GFS 10, plus other mesos who are a bit out of their range give me similar numbers but I'm supposed to believe that Nam actually has a clue with it's 1.5 IMBY and 3 up in Albany and takes the primary well north and develops the secondary over cape cod. Well, I don't. 

You're likely not getting 1.5".  That part can be tossed but to discount the nam completely is not a wise move in this setup.   It's well-known I am not a fan of the NAM but it does well keying in on midlevel warming.  Yes, it kills the primary off further north which is not out of the realm of possibilities.  I have no dog in this fight.  

[wthrmn654]

I've never seen a worse winter season where models have not been in better agreement sooner to the event like 12hrs or less. Majority of the storms have been horrible to forecast... 

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

I've never seen a worse winter season where models have not been in better agreement sooner to the event like 12hrs or less. Majority of the storms have been horrible to forecast... 

Every winter is like this especially for coastal storms or challenging precip type events.   

[Doorman]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

I've never seen a worse winter season where models have not been in better agreement sooner to the event like 12hrs or less. Majority of the storms have been horrible to forecast... 

not for snow-bunny 19  

nowcast banding  ftw  

 

[wthrmn654]

6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Every winter is like this especially for coastal storms or challenging precip type events.   

Not like this year for models to go on different  directions day before storm for several storms, that's highly unusual or for gfs and euro to be stubborn in 2 different solutions, a few storms ago.  Nearly 12 hours to game time.  

[Brasiluvsnow]

Just now, Doorman said:

not for snow-bunny 19  

nowcast banding  ftw  

 

If this could shift ever so slightly south I would sign up for it as it would make me very happy and Sloatsburg Snowy unhappy that would be a win win 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

Not like this year for models to go on different  directions day before storm for several storms, that's highly unusual or for gfs abs euro to be stubborn in 2 different solutions, a few storms ago.  

The models aren't really going in different directions, theyll all either basically stayed the same or trended a bit south except the NAM is a whacky model that can't be trusted at all this winter. We didn't get 30 inches of snow on 1/29 and it was also way too warm for the 1/16 event.