White Gorilla Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It’s a huge warm outlier and anybody with a brain knows this. Someone on here thinks it's the gospel right now it could very well score a coup, so let's see how the rest of guidance trends tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Someone on here thinks it's the gospel right now it could very well score a coup, so let's see how the rest of guidance trends tonight It’s wrong and not even close to any other guidance. Just the nam being the nam. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It’s wrong and not even close to any other guidance. Just the nam being the nam. Soon, time to look at the mesos and see what they got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Ice amounts went up, snow amounts went down for areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 it's possible to get both warmer trends aloft and colder trends at the surface 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Ice amounts went up, snow amounts went down for areas. Par for the course where I live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: It’s wrong and not even close to any other guidance. Just the nam being the nam. The NAM in this case has the track of all the lows way north of everything else. Sometimes it has more or less similar tracks to everything else and is more sleety/mixed...in those cases take it and run with it every time. It is definitely correct on the fact the metro starts as sleet...it may be PLSN for like 40 minutes but even the Euro now seems to be indicating the 5 boroughs area is 80% sleet as far as the frozen precip goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: it's possible to get both warmer trends aloft and colder trends at the surface Yaaay! Sleet!!! Notttttttt! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, White Gorilla said: Yaaay! Sleet!!! Notttttttt! Warmer aloft and colder at the surface = freezing rain, not sleet. For more sleet vs freezing rain you would want it colder aloft, assuming you're looking to avoid an ice storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: Yaaay! Sleet!!! Notttttttt! once you start getting over an inch it's kind of cool 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The NAM in this case has the track of all the lows way north of everything else. Sometimes it has more or less similar tracks to everything else and is more sleety/mixed...in those cases take it and run with it every time. It is definitely correct on the fact the metro starts as sleet...it may be PLSN for like 40 minutes but even the Euro now seems to be indicating the 5 boroughs area is 80% sleet as far as the frozen precip goes It’s still ridiculous with the northern extent of the sleet. I have no problem with the 5 boroughs being mostly sleet but it’s out to lunch further north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Upton pissing in everyone's tea. Snow/sleet amounts have been adjusted down a bit given today`s model trends and potential for the warm nose to be quicker than originally anticipated. Within the watch area, 3 to 6 inches of snow/sleet is forecast with one to two tenths of ice accretion possible. Around an inch of snow/sleet across NYC metro and Long Island and potentially up to 2 inches across coastal CT is forecast into early Friday morning before changing over to plain rain. Any freezing rain looks brief across these areas with a brief glaze of ice possible. Again as mentioned above, the winter storm watch remains in effect Thursday evening into Friday. It may eventually be converted to an advisory given ongoing model trends continue. An advisory may also be needed at the coast largely due to some light icing before the changeover to plain rain around or shortly after daybreak Friday. It should be noted that the overall large scale pattern with strong warm advection aloft argues for a mixed PTYPE well into the interior. The main uncertainty is how quickly this warm air will move from south to north across the area. While the NAM may be too aggressive, its past performance in similar situations supports a trend down in snow/sleet amounts, with potential for adjustments down in subsequent forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Those snow numbers look about the same to me. Maybe a tad less but not by much. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Those snow numbers look about the same to me. Maybe a tad less but not by much. They're down several inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Still think precipitation will develop across the region from southwest to northeast Thursday night, mainly after midnight. Strong warm advection ahead of the system is going to pump warm and moist air up and over the colder and drier air that will be in place from the high to the north. How quickly a warm nose develops between about 850 mb and 700 mb will ultimately determine precipitation types and amounts across the region. The GFS and ECMWF are colder than the NAM and NAM3km at the onset, leading to a bit more snow before any changeover. Do not want to completely discount a colder solution, but there is increasing concerns that the global models are underestimating the strength of the warm nose. The NAM in the past has done a good job at picking up on warm noses as well as the speed and intensity of them. The latest forecast includes a bit more of the NAM solution as well as the HREF, but still gives some potential for the colder profiles to hold on a bit longer into early Friday morning. A brief period of snow is expected across the NYC metro and Long Island before a transition to sleet and then freezing rain and/or rain. Any freezing rain looks brief as increasing easterly flow should help boost surface temperatures above freezing around or during the morning commute changing the precip to plain rain. Further inland becomes a bit more problematic regarding PTYPE. Snow should also quickly develop north and west of the NYC metro early Friday morning. If warming aloft is not as aggressive, there could be several hours of snow across interior NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, and interior southern CT. However, if the warm nose is quick to move overhead, then snow will transition to a mixture of snow and sleet or predominately sleet quicker around or during the morning commute. The coastal CT area may also begin as a period of snow before transitioning to sleet and then some freezing rain and/or rain during the morning commute. The other uncertainty is whether or not the surface flow from the secondary flow helps keep surface temperature at or below freezing later Friday morning, which would bring freezing rain away from the immediate coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Nyc doesn't see rain on the rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Weird to see the low center jump to the coast that dramatically. Should be a fun slop-fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nyc doesn't see rain on the rgem Yeah I would be shocked in this setup if that happened unless we got a decent shift S of 30-40 miles from the overall consensus now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 who says you can't be in two places at one time..... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 What a whacky forecast they made for my zone.. Thursday Night Snow and sleet before 4am, then sleet between 4am and 5am, then snow and sleet after 5am. Low around 31. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. East wind 7 to 12 mph increasing to 13 to 18 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Friday Rain and sleet before 4pm, then a chance of rain between 4pm and 5pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 5pm. High near 38. Wind chill values between 20 and 30. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 23 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Night A chance of rain and snow before 9pm, then a slight chance of snow between 9pm and 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I feel bad for the person who wrote that, if it was in fact a person lmfao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 54 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Someone on here thinks it's the gospel right now it could very well score a coup, so let's see how the rest of guidance trends tonight The NAM is so far off from the other models it's not even funny right now and it hasn't exactly been scoring coups this winter..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 One of these is not like the other. I'm guessing you can figure out which one is wrong. vs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 What a gradient, 9.4" in Warwick and 0.7" in Morristown. Almost all sleet in between the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 39 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah I would be shocked in this setup if that happened unless we got a decent shift S of 30-40 miles from the overall consensus now I love your posts and analysis but in this case I disagree if you are implying NYC is likely to change to meaningful rain. Almost every model is keeping NYC mainly frozen except the NAM, I think it's at least 75% frozen for everyone in the metro area except maybe eastern LI/South shore beaches. NVM I think I took your post out of context and saw your previous post about EWR/NYC/LGA so I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: What a gradient, 9.4" in Warwick and 0.7" in Morristown. Almost all sleet in between the ice. That area from BDL-POU south to HPN-BDR is probably overdone on snow on most models...thats the corridor I feel where sleet will be more than expected probably athough BDL and POU themselves will do well its those places between where I just doubt anyone sees over 4-5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 34 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: What a whacky forecast they made for my zone.. Thursday Night Snow and sleet before 4am, then sleet between 4am and 5am, then snow and sleet after 5am. Low around 31. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. East wind 7 to 12 mph increasing to 13 to 18 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Friday Rain and sleet before 4pm, then a chance of rain between 4pm and 5pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 5pm. High near 38. Wind chill values between 20 and 30. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 23 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Night A chance of rain and snow before 9pm, then a slight chance of snow between 9pm and 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Don’t forget to wear a watch! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 What is criteria for an ice storm warning? It seems like it's just based on ZR but in this case it seems like it will be heavy sleet and maybe some ZR so that we more a winter storm warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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