jm1220 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 52 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: I don’t know. I’m chasing with Albany as my spot. Latest has me thinking I might head further north. In a chase; I have zero tolerance for pingers. Pretty much anyone along I-90 should be good for well over 6”. The best place to be may be eastern Mass since they could get some enhancement from the Atlantic. This is a Boston bread and butter storm where it could mix with a little sleet at the end but by then damage is more than done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 29 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: If you're talking the Poconos and up around I-84 then yes. It has a lot of sleet and ice for areas further South. It also has decent snows in lower Hudson valley in your backyard before the sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It also has decent snows in lower Hudson valley in your backyard before the sleet. Not really. The snowfall maps don't match what it's depicting at the surface. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Not really. The snowfall maps don't match what it's depicting at the surface. Yes they do. Your snow is going to fall generally between 6z and 12z. I could see the 3-5 there. Isn’t NWS calling for 4-6? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Ignore what I posted that was blooper from 00z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 INCLUDES SLEET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Yes they do. Your snow is going to fall generally between 6z and 12z. I could see the 3-5 there. Isn’t NWS calling for 4-6? Would need to see the soundings to confirm this but the surface map shows the mixing line to the Bergen/Rockland line by 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Would need to see the soundings to confirm this but the surface map shows the mixing line to the Bergen/Rockland line by 06z. I'm not sure I clicked it exactly but it's close to it at 6z. The run you posted versus the one I posted look a bit different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: INCLUDES SLEET Do you what ratios they are using to calculate these amounts? These amounts seem high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Tatamy said: Do you what ratios they are using to calculate these amounts? These amounts seem high. They have an entire 2 page explanation on how they come up with amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 https://www.weathernerds.org/models/field_definitions/get_field_definition.html?doc=Snowfall.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 15 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Do you what ratios they are using to calculate these amounts? These amounts seem high. Don't forget per how the radar is being depicted, looks like when it shows its going snow, it's pretty hard which could add up quickly. That's probably the only way I see how that matches. 12z radar depiction has snow still falling for long Island jfk north, 15z mixing shows up. Total precip amounts up to 15z is about 0.60+ area wide 12z is about 0.40+/- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Obviously that's not the entire picture either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 As with every storm this winter it seems it’s going to boil down to nowcasting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 18Z HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: This is working out exactly as it looked days ago…..a non event for snow and big ping fest going to all rain south of I-84. The GFS is trash, too cold as usual, I think the ICON is actually better. The NAM is the way to go. This one is going to continue to trend north and warmer in the midlevels right up until tomorrow afternoon Enjoy your foot. 2 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 18z NAM looks further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: 18z NAM looks further south Sleet to ZR for the interior and sleet to rain for the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 This could be a really ugly storm for northern NJ, especially since cold level cold is often undermodeled. I doubt anyone north of I-80 even touches freezing before meaningful precipitation moves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Sleet to ZR for the interior and sleet to rain for the coastal plain. Its still insanely far north compared to everything else. I'd bet the house its likely wrong but you can toss any model showing long periods of snow at the coast...the NAM is likely way too early though flipping NE NJ/NYC to rain...I think its very possible those places never totally switch to RA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its still insanely far north compared to everything else. I'd bet the house its likely wrong but you can toss any model showing long periods of snow at the coast...the NAM is likely way too early though flipping NE NJ/NYC to rain...I think its very possible those places never totally switch to RA Guess we'll just have to look outside at this point Friday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its still insanely far north compared to everything else. I'd bet the house its likely wrong but you can toss any model showing long periods of snow at the coast...the NAM is likely way too early though flipping NE NJ/NYC to rain...I think its very possible those places never totally switch to RA 3k NAM has some icing in interior sections, 0.25"+ for places like Western Rockland, upper Bergen and Western Passaic, but it's mostly after 12z. Precip by then is lighter and temps are borderline. Again that's taking it verbatim. I want to see what the RGEM says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Upton will be lowering totals if my zone forecast is a hint at what there to say shortly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Slightly colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Slightly colder That may be too cold....I do not think JFK/CNJ are seeing a full blown all frozen event or ice storm but certainly LGA/EWR/NYC may Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That may be too cold....I do not think JFK/CNJ are seeing a full blown all frozen event or ice storm but certainly LGA/EWR/NYC may It changes to rain at the end. The nam is an outlier with the primary that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That may be too cold....I do not think JFK/CNJ are seeing a full blown all frozen event or ice storm but certainly LGA/EWR/NYC may But being how the years been wacky up to now, it could be a possible outcome though very very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It changes to rain at the end. The nam is an outlier with the primary that far north. It’s a huge warm outlier and anybody with a brain knows this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Rgem would make for a very messy Friday commute. That's something to watch as it's usually the more amped/warmer model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now