HVSnowLover Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not one model has this as a pure rain event for NYC Until the 12Z GFS came and has NYC pouring at 12Z on Friday but the GFS has been attrocious model with this storm so take it for what its worth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Until the 12Z GFS came and has NYC pouring at 12Z on Friday but the GFS has been attrocious model with this storm so take it for what its worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Referring to this, not saying it's right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Until the 12Z GFS came and has NYC pouring at 12Z on Friday but the GFS has been attrocious model with this storm so take it for what its worth. Its very close.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Its very close.... Yea GFS is not the model i'd use to forecast precip types anyway I'm just being fair to show all the different possibilites here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea GFS is not the model i'd use to forecast precip types anyway I'm just being fair to show all the different possibilites here. THE GFS has a colder look early on but the primary made in father north before the weak coastal. All comes down to where coastal pops up (delmarva or LI)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 For mid level temps I’d use the NAM or other meso models. GFS is normally too cold there. And as others pointed out the warm layer in these events is often above 850mb so you can’t rely on that for snow/sleet line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 28 minutes ago, jm1220 said: For mid level temps I’d use the NAM or other meso models. GFS is normally too cold there. And as others pointed out the warm layer in these events is often above 850mb so you can’t rely on that for snow/sleet line. This is working out exactly as it looked days ago…..a non event for snow and big ping fest going to all rain south of I-84. The GFS is trash, too cold as usual, I think the ICON is actually better. The NAM is the way to go. This one is going to continue to trend north and warmer in the midlevels right up until tomorrow afternoon 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This is working out exactly as it looked days ago…..a non event for snow and big ping fest going to all rain south of I-84. The GFS is trash, too cold as usual, I think the ICON is actually better. The NAM and RGEM are the way to go. This one is going to continue to trend north and warmer in the midlevels right up until tomorrow afternoon They are wrong then? https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ070&warncounty=NYC119&firewxzone=NYZ070&local_place1=2 Miles NNW Maryknoll NY&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=41.2118&lon=-73.842#.YhZgyZPMKEI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Good, models are trending warmer. No icy mess to deal with. HRRR takes low to buffalo Don’t worry, given the setup this will certainly continue to bump north right up until tomorrow afternoon. Would not be at all surprised to see the NAM being the closest to reality 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: They are wrong then? https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ070&warncounty=NYC119&firewxzone=NYZ070&local_place1=2 Miles NNW Maryknoll NY&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=41.2118&lon=-73.842#.YhZgyZPMKEI That forecast will change :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Ukie bumped north and really backed off on totals. CMC came south though Maybe snowman will be right or maybe not. Models may be meeting more in the middle as opposed to a big trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022022312&fh=60&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc&m=ukmet https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022022312&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I agree with uptons watch area, a significantly impactful frozen event is likely in that zone regardless of precip type. South of there it still seems more iffy and we'll have to watch the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, bluewave said: Impressive warm tongue on the CMC above 850 mb. 12z Friday NYC That warm tongue is almost certainly being under modeled right now, as is typical. I can easily see this event start as sleet instead of snow and go over to all rain south of I-84 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: That warm tongue is almost certainly being under modeled right now, as is typical. I can easily see this event start as sleet instead of snow and go over to all rain south of I-84 How is it going to plain rain up to I84 with a strong high to the north? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: That warm tongue is almost certainly being under modeled right now, as is typical. I can easily see this event start as sleet instead of snow and go over to all rain south of I-84 Yeah but just as easily the cold air at the surface maybe under modeled as well. We’ll see though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 25 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: I agree with uptons watch area, a significantly impactful frozen event is likely in that zone regardless of precip type. South of there it still seems more iffy and we'll have to watch the trends. Upton seems to have 2-5" outside the watch area which might be a little aggressive. I don't see anyone south of I-84 getting over 5" but the watch extends down to just N of NYC and the immediate CT coast. Where I am and most of NYC it'll probably be 2-3" of crud partly washed away at the end and the south shore/I-78 an inch or two that gets washed away at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Upton seems to have 2-5" outside the watch area which might be a little aggressive. I don't see anyone south of I-84 getting over 5" but the watch extends down to just N of NYC and the immediate CT coast. Where I am and most of NYC it'll probably be 2-3" of crud partly washed away at the end and the south shore/I-78 an inch or two that gets washed away at the end. Still counts for snow totals. Although some prolly don't care about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Still counts for snow totals. Although some prolly don't care about that It will be a winter wonderland Friday right to the northern part of the city. Sleet is incredibly hard to melt so even if we go to a period of rain then dry slot your just not melting that. As I have said all along this is a northern part of the city, extreme north shore of Li north ping fest. South shore, and southern part of the city will quickly go to rain with an east wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Haha, yeah hug the one model that gives Albany 4 inches. Such a I don’t know. I’m chasing with Albany as my spot. Latest has me thinking I might head further north. In a chase; I have zero tolerance for pingers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: Until the 12Z GFS came and has NYC pouring at 12Z on Friday but the GFS has been attrocious model with this storm so take it for what its worth. The 12z GFS soundings show NYC sitting at 32 degrees at 12z Friday. Even at 18z NYC is only at 33 degrees and by then the storm is history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: I don’t know. I’m chasing with Albany as my spot. Latest has me thinking I might head further north. In a chase; I have zero tolerance for pingers. You’re fine at Albany. Nam is wrong. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Quickly looked at the 12z guidance so far. The GFS has a lot of sleet for NYC and freezing rain for the interior after some sleet and snow to start. The GGEM which I give very low value has some impressive ice numbers near I-78 and then an impressive amount of sleet over the interior. It has surface temps is the lower to mid 20's when the precipitation is coldest. Upper 20's even at the coast. The RGEM is a lot like the GGEM. Big time sleet fest for most of the area and a little ice at the end. The NAM brings the mid level lows too far North and is an outlier. We get some sleet and then dry slot till the cold front comes through. Tossing. The Euro is probably the best case scenario if you're looking for snow but it still pretty much limits things to areas North of 287/87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 11 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: You’re fine at Albany. Nam is wrong. The NAM is a northern outlier and it's not even close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 It's kind of disappointing that this storm starts so late on Thursday night and is pretty much over by 9AM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Euro is really nice for the interior 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Euro is really nice for the interior If you're talking the Poconos and up around I-84 then yes. It has a lot of sleet and ice for areas further South. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 13 hours ago, RU848789 said: For what it's worth, Lee Goldberg was just on and showing a futurecast that looked a lot like the GFS/NAM, i.e., a bit of snow (an inch or two for NYC), then a fair amount of sleet, then maybe a bit of ZR and then rain, but not rain until 8-9 am, which would mean a real mess on even NYC streets with temps around 32F and 1-2" of snow and 2-3" of sleet (which is 6-9" of snow equivalent) for 7-11" of snow equivalent, which makes sense as those two models are showing nearly 1" of LE by 7 am before any rain. I don't think anyone is thinking this storm will be as impactful as the GFS/NAM are showing right now for the immediate NYC/NENJ/LI area (and maybe even down into CNJ north of the Raritan/202, which would include me). Those Tidbits maps show a ton of sleet. And the CMC got "snowier" vs. 12Z, according to the Pivotal snow depth map, which I believe is mostly sleet and which I don't believe is at 3:1 ratios (maybe 5:1, since it's probably some snow and sleet); Tidbits doesn't show sleet as snow on the CMC. Hey @MGorse- you were very helpful answering my questions about how the NWS does take into account snow/liquid ratios in their snowfall forecasts a few weeks ago (as per internal calcs, not Kuchera), so thought I'd throw out another question. Does the NWS ever put out sleet accumulation forecasts or are they just folded into the snowfall forecasts at maybe 3:1 sleet:liquid ratios? I've never seen any, but maybe I've missed it. IMO, sleet is greatly underestimated by most with regard to impact, as 3" of sleet is roughly the same frozen mass as 10" of snow, both of which have about the same impact on driving (apart from visibility impacts) and snow removal - so it would be nice to have sleet maps or somehow factored in better in the snow maps. Thanks, in advance, for any insights. Sleet is included with snow regarding accumulations. Sleet can be messaged separately if significant but otherwise it is combined. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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