MJO812 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The GFS is an big outlier, none of the other models (Euro/EPS, CMC, Ukie, ICON) are showing anything close to this for the NYC metro area 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The GFS is an big outlier, none of the other models (Euro/EPS, CMC, Ukie, ICON) are showing anything close to this for the NYC metro area These tend to trend north but a front end thump isn't out of the question 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 25 minutes ago, MJO812 said: These tend to trend north but a front end thump isn't out of the question Why do you even bother responding. It's the same ole routine. Every model could show a snowstorm and he'll point to one model that shows the least. It's so tiresome. Given the extent of the high pressure and deep cold I'd say a front end thump of a few inches is very possible. The risk is the wave becoming too amplified but even then a front end thump could still happen before any changeover. Keep an eye on the storm ahead of it. If that trends stronger then the cold press will be stronger which would cause the next system to be further south aka colder/snowier. 6 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Why do you even bother responding. It's the same ole routine. Every model could show a snowstorm and he'll point to one model that shows the least. It's so tiresome. Given the extent of the high pressure and deep cold I'd say a front end thump of a few inches is very possible. The risk is the wave becoming too amplified but even then a front end thump could still happen before any changeover. Keep an eye on the storm ahead of it. If that trends stronger then the cold press will be stronger which would cause the next system to be further south aka colder/snowier. You haven’t a clue 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Why do you even bother responding. It's the same ole routine. Every model could show a snowstorm and he'll point to one model that shows the least. It's so tiresome. Given the extent of the high pressure and deep cold I'd say a front end thump of a few inches is very possible. The risk is the wave becoming too amplified but even then a front end thump could still happen before any changeover. Keep an eye on the storm ahead of it. If that trends stronger then the cold press will be stronger which would cause the next system to be further south aka colder/snowier. I have told him this more then once but he just refuses to listen. Just ignore him, all he wants is attention and he is getting it. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 enjoy the weekend ... don't put your shovels away just yet 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 I have told him this more then once but he just refuses to listen. Just ignore him, all he wants is attention and he is getting it. It’s like an old married sitcom couple routine from when I was a kid. We could write the scripts for this in under ten minutes for each and every potential storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, North and West said: It’s like an old married sitcom couple routine from when I was a kid. We could write the scripts for this in under ten minutes for each and every potential storm. . Yesterday's 6z run of the JMA says otherwise. The threat of writing a script in under 10 minutes is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Wow gfs 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 GFS not only didnt back down but actually went colder this run. Still very early with tracking this one, in my view we've moved from pregame to basically the first quarter at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 big hit here. wow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Its nice to have a model showing snow all the way down to SNJ because that means theres some wiggle room for the models to meet in the middle with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow gfs Snow porn, sorry for the useless post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 13 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Its nice to have a model showing snow all the way down to SNJ because that means theres some wiggle room for the models to meet in the middle with this. and don't be surprised when the GFS enters its "lose the storm completely" period.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Nice. But the gfs is completely on its own with that outcome and in this pattern you want it way south 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 12Z CMC is a big sleet/freezing rain storm for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Nothing can be discounted at this lead time. I think GFS is too cold but that arctic high and CAD cannot be discounted. I do think most people will see a front end dump of snow, changing to a mix, and then rain along the coast. The more north you are the more snow and many places well N and W may stay all frozen. Could be a real mess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: 12Z CMC is a big sleet/freezing rain storm for most Much colder than previous run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Northof78 said: Much colder than previous run The mid levels actually seem pretty warm but the surface is a lot colder, I guess picking up on strength of the high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: The mid levels actually seem pretty warm but the surface is a lot colder, I guess picking up on strength of the high? By 12z Friday it’s rain for nyc south. Frz rain north jersey. Gfs is on its own 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 CMC trended a BIT colder than 0z. Trend is important. GFS likely too weak and cold BUT CMC is probably too warm as well. Safe to go 1 to 3 from LI north to 84 this early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 28 minutes ago, Allsnow said: By 12z Friday it’s rain for nyc south. Frz rain north jersey. Gfs is on its own 100% The GFS is in a world all to its own. When no other models show what it is showing, something is wrong. In that setup, it’s only going to trend more north as we get closer 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: big hit here. wow Thanks for this. What are your thoughts? Do you believe the GFS or CMC at this juncture? Perhaps blend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 all rain plz 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 The GFS is wrong given the pattern but the CMC is probably wrong too...the air mass is likely going to be good enough for a good 4-6 hours of all snow for the entire area to start...the SNE thread comparing it to 2/2/15 may be a good similar example. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Ukmet 4/8 northern Pa into sne mainly rain for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 18 minutes ago, forkyfork said: all rain plz Can never tell if you are giving a forecast at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 UKMET is almost an inch for NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The GFS is wrong given the pattern but the CMC is probably wrong too...the air mass is likely going to be good enough for a good 4-6 hours of all snow for the entire area to start...the SNE thread comparing it to 2/2/15 may be a good similar example. you sure ??? February 2nd Winter Storm (weather.gov) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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