rgwp96 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Nam still showing zero snow for all of nj and nyc area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 30 minutes ago, romba said: This overall looks pretty significant regarding activities impacted, but hard to get a read in here...is this a grass and cartopper event for the front end and nudge and sleet, or can I assume roads will be heavily impacted where the models show a bit of snow followed by lots of sleet? With temps below 32F before the event starts, for most (at least north of the Raritan/202), any snow/sleet that fall should accumulate, especially at night. Also, from an impact perspective, 1" of sleet has the same frozen mass as 3" of snow, meaning it will be just as hard to drive in (apart from not having visibility issues) and remove, so I would expect significant travel impacts for anywhere that gets at least 1" of sleet (and then maybe up to 0.1" of freezing rain) - and with temps for most of NYC metro not getting above 32F until 7-9 am, the rush hour could be impacted significantly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: Nam still showing zero snow for all of nj and nyc area Probably showing a shit ton of sleet and freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 13 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: Nam still showing zero snow for all of nj and nyc area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 let's keep bumping this north so we whittle this down to a few hours of sleet followed by rain 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 SWFE type event and no blocking-this will jump north right up to go time..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Good, models are trending warmer. No icy mess to deal with. HRRR takes low to buffalo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Wow people really hate this event lol. I really don't think its that bad to get sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: SWFE type event and no blocking-this will jump north right up to go time..... This winter has highlighted the importance of -NAO/AO blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Wow people really hate this event lol. I really don't think its that bad to get sleet. Snow or bust for them. I'm with you, sleet is a pain to clear out and while I clearly enjoy it less than snow I definitely appreciate it more than cold rain (unless I have somewhere I need to be) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I don't think we want it bumping north with that high in place, it will just be more ZR and less snow/sleet especially for Northern NJ/Northern NYC/North shore of LI....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 The ely component llvl flow will aid in changing LI and NYC to rain during the day on Fri. A significant concern on the mesoscale is whether a strong cstl front develops, particularly with low pres deepening s of LI, allowing winds to stay backed more to the n, locking in the cold air at least at the sfc. Unless there is a big change in track however, the mid lvls should warm up enough for a changeover from snow for all of the area. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the nrn tier for roughly 4- 8 inches of snow. Elsewhere, the event looks advy lvl, but there is some wiggle room if the storm tracks a little further south. Will include the non-watch areas in the hwo for now. The amount of icing/sleet looks to remain blw warning lvls regardless of any change in track or the cstl front, so the main challenge for headlines is how much snow falls on the front end. In addition, parts of LI, especially the forks, could forgo most of the sleet and fzra and go directly over to rain with the ely flow off the ocean warming the bl. spot check guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 24 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow, poor Boston if this becomes mainly NNE for snow. Some sleet would be good I guess but I’m fine with a washout if it means no ice storm and snow is out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I guess Upton has a different feeling than many on here since they have a winter storm watch 30 miles north of the city. This will be my last slight vent post but just because it's not a blizzard for NYC/LI doesn't make it a non significant event for much of the subforum including possibly parts of NYC/LI 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Nam is off it's rocker. It gives Albany 4 inches. Yeah ok. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Nam is off it's rocker. It gives Albany 4 inches. Yeah ok. The NAM always does this, overamps and then adjusts. Not really considering this a true north trend until globals come north or NAM is still showing this inside 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, HVSnowLover said: The NAM always does this, overamps and then adjusts. Not really considering this a true north trend until globals come north or NAM is still showing this inside 36 hours. Exactly. I see people talking about the hrrr at 48 hours. Good Lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Nam is off it's rocker. It gives Albany 4 inches. Yeah ok. NAM is still synoptically very different from other guidance...it is tracking that vortmax NORTH of Lake Ontario....nevermind over it. If it is wrong with that, then it's going to bust too warm. It's not "Sniffing out a warm layer" like we sometimes see in these events when they all agree on the synoptics. The NAM is literally about 75-100 miles north of other guidance on the vort track and that makes a huge difference. ORH_wxman Moderator Meteorologist 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Although RGEM is out of range since we are looking at all models it actually nudged a bit south with snow this run from 6Z. It has also has over an inch of precip of almost entirely Sleet/ZR for NYC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Although RGEM is out of range since we are looking at all models it actually nudged a bit south with snow this run from 6Z. It has also has over an inch of precip of almost entirely Sleet/ZR for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Although RGEM is out of range since we are looking at all models it actually nudged a bit south this run from 6Z. I saw that. It's still in it's longer range but did tick a little south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 The window for NYC going above freezing seems to be about 10 am to 4 pm but by then most precip is gone with this one. Central and Eastern LI would probably see a period of plain rain after 10 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Thats looks like intense sleet for the metro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 RGEM has been steady showing a significant sleet storm for the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 versus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, mikem81 said: versus You can see how shallow the warm layer, would not be surprised at all if snow mixes in with the sleet during the heavier precip. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Because it isnt an event for NYC metro. Never was. It is a rain event with some sleet possible at the beginning Everything else is manufactured hype Not one model has this as a pure rain event for NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Not one model has this as a pure rain event for NYC I deleted my post. Not worth getting into it. Enjoy whatever it is 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: You can see how shallow the warm layer, would not be surprised at all if snow mixes in with the sleet during the heavier precip. You can't tell that from the 850mb layer. The core of the warm tongue is quite a bit higher in the column, somewhere between 750 and 800. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpsnavigator Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I teach, and I hear a lot of co-workers convinced we're getting a big one from reading TWC and Accuweather. We're in central Sussex County, NJ, so I guess it could go either way. Campus here sits in a bit of a geographic bowl, so I've seen colder air get trapped here, whereas two miles up the road it's 5 degrees warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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