snywx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4-6” seems to be a good early call for us right along I-84. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 49 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Simply not true. There will be 1-4 inches from NYC up to Putnam county and some 1-2 inch type numbers on north shore as well. Now if you mean 6+ then I agree. There might be a little snow for NENJ, Putnam, Westchester etc. But will anybody be awake to see it? Sure looks like IP or ZR by daybreak except well north of the metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 12 minutes ago, eduggs said: There might be a little snow for NENJ, Putnam, Westchester etc. But will anybody be awake to see it? Sure looks like IP or ZR by daybreak except well north of the metro. Im not familiar with anybody's sleep patterns. I'm just saying there will be some snow and putnam could get 4 inches or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Im not familiar with anybody sleep patterns. I'm just saying there will be some snow and putnam could get 4 inches or so. That's a little disingenuous. You know as well as anybody else that most people are asleep at 4am. I agree parts of Putnam could get something like 4 inches of snow. If I had to choose right now I would take the under. But I'm hoping that area gets hammered so I can get 4" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, eduggs said: That's a little disingenuous. You know as well as anybody else that most people are asleep at 4am. I agree parts of Putnam could get something like 4 inches of snow. If I had to choose right now I would take the under. But I'm hoping that area gets hammered so I can get 4" What does it matter if people are asleep? Does that not mean it won't snow? I have missed 8 inches of snow when it snowed at night. It will still be snowing north of city at 7am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 28 minutes ago, snywx said: 4-6” seems to be a good early call for us right along I-84. Toss on sleet and a coating of ZR = right back to bulletproof pack. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: What does it matter if people are asleep? Does that not mean it won't snow? I have missed 8 inches of snow when it snowed at night. It will still be snowing north of city at 7am. Falling snow that can be walked and played in is obviously more fun than previously fallen, ice-encrusted snow. We're all hoping the snow line isn't too far north. But there is not currently a lot of guidance that doesn't have it pretty far north by daybreak. Fingers crossed for a cold-south trend. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 This thread is underrated right now. The whole 'if a snowflake falls in the woods but no one is awake to see it' riff is pretty funny. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 hours ago, bluewave said: 2003 to 2022 Coating to 6…Light 6-12…………Moderate 12-24………Heavy 24-36………Real Accumulations 1979 to 1993 Coating to 3….Light 3-6…………Moderate 6-12…….…Heavy 12-24……..Real Accumulations Good analogy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 30 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: What does it matter if people are asleep? Does that not mean it won't snow? I have missed 8 inches of snow when it snowed at night. It will still be snowing north of city at 7am. Don't think I've ever missed any snow at any time of the day or night in at least 35 years, lol. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Nam coming in slightly colder through 60 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 NAM is notably lower with heights. always a bit hesitant to believe a warmer solution given a strong HP in an ideal location 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nam coming in slightly colder through 60 Defintely but it's still the long term Nam. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Nam 00z vs 18z. Still out of it's range but looks better. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: NAM is notably lower with heights. always a bit hesitant to believe a warmer solution given a strong HP in an ideal location Yeah, I've said this elsewhere. Models tend to erode surface cold too quickly and not quickly enough for upper levels. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Rgem coming in 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 We sleet. In these type of set ups i find that the changeover line likes to hover around S.I while areas just N sleets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Rgem coming in YUCK that would be ICE for many of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: NAM is notably lower with heights. always a bit hesitant to believe a warmer solution given a strong HP in an ideal location Kind of a chicken or egg thing, no? The strength and position of the high is dictated by the upper levels. So a model will tend to show shifts in height field that correspond to changes in surface pressure. But that doesn't mean that the high is causing the change - just that the surface features are happening in tandem with changes in the other surface and upper level features. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 The RGEM actually cools the mid-level during the event Thurs morning as the event progresses and a SLP develops well south of LI. The strengthening damning signature is evident. But by the time the column is below freezing, the dendritic growth zone is unsaturated and we are left with freezing drizzle. It looks like the RGEM goes to +3 or +4 at the warmest. If that were closer to +1 or even +2, I would have more confidence this ends up isothermal. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Interesting trends so far tonight. Hopefully the colder outcomes happen and we don't see the usual bump north with SWFEs at the end. I don't buy it being more than 2-3" of snow to start around the city but it can be that to a ton of sleet and then a drizzly dry slot. If you're north of 84 you're still in a good shot at 6+. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 The GFS at 0z looks a lot like 18z. There are the usual minor localized differences, but that's mostly noise. I'm happy it didn't trend worse. This can still shift more wintry. Model consensus has NYC right on the threshold... a shift colder and this is a significant wintry event. A shift warmer, and it's a minor nuisance event. The question for the northern suburbs is does this become a major snow event or mostly mix? And the question for the southern burbs is whether there is any impactful wintry precip. at all. There's not much sense in guessing, but I'll do it anyway. I think warning snows stay north of I-84 with a lot of sleet between there and I-80. I think frozen accumulations decrease rapidly south of there with minimal impact south of the latitude of Raritan Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 UKIE 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 26 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Interesting trends so far tonight. Hopefully the colder outcomes happen and we don't see the usual bump north with SWFEs at the end. I don't buy it being more than 2-3" of snow to start around the city but it can be that to a ton of sleet and then a drizzly dry slot. If you're north of 84 you're still in a good shot at 6+. The NAM idea of starting as sleet and then flipping to snow for a time is not very realistic...the RGEM going sleet/freezing rain most of the event makes more sense 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 So the GFS and UK were essentially unchanged from 18z and 12z respectively and the CMC ticked south relative to 12z. Not a lot of movement overall. A model blend seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Almost the entire state of MA is 6+ (10:1) on every model. So jealous. It's been almost 13 months since I saw 6" of snow here in Morris County. For some areas this will be #3 or 4 this winter alone. Spoiled fckers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: Almost the entire state of MA is 6+ (10:1) on every model. So jealous. It's been almost 13 months since I saw 6" of snow here in Morris County. For some areas this will be #3 or 4 this winter alone. Spoiled fckers. 13 months ? Jeez I saw 2 storms 6+ this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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