EasternLI Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Here's the 12z euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Didn't realize it flipped back to snow at the end, full run totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Euro is 1.1 qpf all frozen for northern parts of NYC wow. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Didn't realize it flipped back to snow at the end, full run totals Do u have a Kutchera 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Do u have a Kutchera Unfortunately I don't have paid site for Euro so no. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Anybody who sees no difference in the models in the last 24 hours isn't paying attention. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: Anybody who sees no difference in the models in the last 24 hours isn't paying attention. As they say in the SNE forum we snow and ice. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Do u have a Kutchera It's best to use 10:1 in this situation. Kutchera may not be accurate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 I wonder if this storm being more SE is shunting the Sunday storm more SE, either way I'd take the trade off because who knows what would have happened with that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 15 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Anybody who sees no difference in the models in the last 24 hours isn't paying attention. The 12Z Euro is probably the best case scenario you're getting for NYC with this setup. I guess it could trend better but hard to see it unless the primary dies even quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 When you look at the wind directions on all models you can actually see the CAD signature develops as the surface low strengthens and approaches from the SRN Ohio Valley. Both GFS/NAM show winds 21-00Z try to go light 09-130...the GFS obviously turns them SE as it cannot resolve even the weak damming signature at this range...then past 02Z they back towards 040-060 again. I still question whether this is a snow event for more than an hour at the coast...its much safer to lean mainly sleet at this time 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: When you look at the wind directions on all models you can actually see the CAD signature develops as the surface low strengthens and approaches from the SRN Ohio Valley. Both GFS/NAM show winds 21-00Z try to go light 09-130...the GFS obviously turns them SE as it cannot resolve even the weak damming signature at this range...then past 02Z they back towards 040-060 again. I still question whether this is a snow event for more than an hour at the coast...its much safer to lean mainly sleet at this time If it's mainly sleet thats going to be a lot of sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 17 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: I wonder if this storm being more SE is shunting the Sunday storm more SE, either way I'd take the trade off because who knows what would have happened with that one. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: If it's mainly sleet thats going to be a lot of sleet! If there’s no mechanism to bring warm surface air in from the ocean, from an E or SE wind, it’s hard to see how we go above freezing. If the cold NE wind stays for the storm I think most of us would stay sleet or go to sleet/ZR. For snow though since the mid levels usually warm up faster than modeled at this stage and the tracks are lousy for us, you’d want to be north of I-84 or preferably along I-90. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 And before we get any sun angle posts the bulk of the heavy stuff falls between 1 am and 7 am so no concerns about that with this one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Some models are showing a heavy ZR area near the city and north shore especially. RGEM would be an ice storm warning level event. Learning my lesson from the last potential ice storm. Completely different setup but we need to wait for the high resolution mesoscale models to come into better range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Eps snow mean 4 nyc 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 there was a storm on February 12-13th 1993 that looks like what's forecast for Thur/Fri...3" of snow and ice changing to rain after hours of sleet... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 21 minutes ago, uncle W said: there was a storm on February 12-13th 1993 that looks like what's forecast for Thur/Fri...3" of snow and ice changing to rain after hours of sleet... Cancelled my V-Day dance, I was a very upset teen....setup was not bad, cold air was majorly lacking though...could have easily been all snow with a good air mass http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0212.php 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 38 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If there’s no mechanism to bring warm surface air in from the ocean, from an E or SE wind, it’s hard to see how we go above freezing. If the cold NE wind stays for the storm I think most of us would stay sleet or go to sleet/ZR. For snow though since the mid levels usually warm up faster than modeled at this stage and the tracks are lousy for us, you’d want to be north of I-84 or preferably along I-90. On the flip side models have trended colder the last 24 hours at surface and aloft. Models also underestimate cold air to the north. A well respected poster on another board quoting a well respected met said "we never close off at 850 or 700 and 850's have multi focal vort max's. The front end thump you have 700 screaming out of the west and 850 out of the SW and not S, SE or E like when you get that close 850 low. A well respected met taught me a long time ago that when you see 700mb out of the west with an over running event without any of the mid levels closing off it screams of correcting colder and snowier. It would not surprise me if the mid level trends cont we get colder and snowier down to the coast." 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 I wouldn't get my hopes up if you're expecting snow. I'm thinking ZR/Sleet to rain for anyone south of I-78 including the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: I wouldn't get my hopes up if you're expecting snow. I'm thinking ZR/Sleet to rain for anyone south of I-78 including the city. I think you're wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I wouldn't get my hopes up if you're expecting snow. I'm thinking ZR/Sleet to rain for anyone south of I-78 including the city. I agree - first of all the EURO is wrong on Pivitol weather with its snow accumulations south of I-78 take a closer look at the precip types........ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I wouldn't get my hopes up if you're expecting snow. I'm thinking ZR/Sleet to rain for anyone south of I-78 including the city. Usually a HP sliding east of Maine into the Atlantic is the sign of no snow. I see a HP in perfect position on all the models here and hints at earlier coastal development... 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 6 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: lol how does FOK get over 2" when it's right on the beach basically and sticking out into the ocean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Strange distribution on the island on east winds. It’s hard for it to snow more in MTK then the north shore of Nassau on that wind direction. I think that’s too close to model output vs reality and how does FOK have so much more than JFK? JFK is further west, we're usually colder than FOK on east winds. I do know our ZR and snow lasts longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 5 hours ago, jm1220 said: It’s at the time of year where urban heat island will hurt, and the cold air is generally coming from the NE, so this is a rare setup where it can snow more on the Forks than NYC. but we have scenarios like Jan 1994 and VD 2007 where JFK stays below freezing and east of Oceanside goes above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I agree - first of all the EURO is wrong on Pivitol weather with its snow accumulations south of I-78 take a closer look at the precip types........ NYC will get snow in the beginning, 1-2, and then a lot of sleet/zr. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 4 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said: this is a very 1993-94 esque storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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