wthrmn654 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Agree There microclimate is like SNE They get more snow than the rest of the area Thank you, we try lol haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Nam, while still out of range, the 12k looks Colder then 6z at 12z. It doesn’t look colder in the midlevels, they are torched, that’s why it barely has any snow at all south of I-84 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Northern long Island fairs far better at marginal winter time events and holding onto frozen precip a little longer versus south lie. Will all depend on on fast temps rise I guess. Same with Northern NYC vs Southern NYC, wouldn't be surprised if north of the Cross Bronx is pingling for hours while JFK is pouring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Agreed here. The GFS is still the cold outlier. That model is just a really horrible anymore. None of the other models, RGEM, CMC, NAM, UKMET, ICON, Euro/EPS look anything like it. There’s a reason why it’s ranked at #4 Didn't both the Ukie and Euro show over 4 inches of snow for your area at 0Z lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Agreed here. The GFS is still the cold outlier. That model is just a really horrible anymore. None of the other models, RGEM, CMC, NAM, UKMET, ICON, Euro/EPS look anything like it. There’s a reason why it’s ranked at #4 BS. The Euro and Ukie looked similar except for Long Island where they had a few inches. You still think no snow south of 84? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 84, as in the one in Danbury CT?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Didn't both the Ukie and Euro show over 4 inches of snow for your area at 0Z lol. Unmmmm no the Ukie didn’t show that. Before you post, get your facts straight, those Ukie “snow” maps count sleet as snow and are therefore overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Unmmmm no the Ukie didn’t show that. Before you post, get your facts straight, those Ukie “snow” maps count sleet as snow and are therefore overdone It still showed snow from NYC on north. You didn't answer my question. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Is it true that the Ukie 10:1 pivotal maps count sleet as snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 11 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Didn't both the Ukie and Euro show over 4 inches of snow for your area at 0Z lol. I am not far from his area and yes they did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Ukie looks even further south of 0Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 17 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: 84, as in the one in Danbury CT?! Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Ukie looks even further south of 0Z It's slightly colder, yes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It's slightly colder, yes. Unfortunately it doesn't have precip type maps or soundings but at hour 72 looks like all layers above 700 feet are below freezing from Bronx/Manhattan northward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 10 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Ok looking at that map I think it trended a bit north actually but the sleet line trended south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Unfortunately it doesn't have precip type maps or soundings but at hour 72 looks like all layers above 700 feet are below freezing from Bronx/Manhattan northward. 850's were slightly colder and 2M temps were very similar though slightly colder north shore of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 43 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Is it true that the Ukie 10:1 pivotal maps count sleet as snow? Yes they do, that is not snow on that Ukie map, it’s grossly overdone, counting sleet as snow. I suspect the new Euro comes in warmer given what it did at 6z. Nothing at all has changed since yesterday, it is still a non event for snow south of I-84. It’s a ping-fest at best south of 84 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 The 12z GFS was actually very close to showing a lot more snow for places like NNJ. Where it's showing sleet at the surface, the soundings show that we do have a warm nose around 750mb but at best it might be +1C. More warm air arrives after 12z but a good 0.5"+ of liquid falls between 06z and 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, snowman19 said: Yes they do, that is not snow on that Ukie map, it’s grossly overdone, counting sleet as snow. I suspect the new Euro comes in warmer given what it did at 6z. Nothing at all has changed since yesterday, it is still a non event for snow south of I-84. It’s a ping-fest at best south of 84 A pingfest is still better than a washout IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 12z GFS was actually very close to showing a lot more snow for places like NNJ. Where it's showing sleet at the surface, the soundings show that we do have a warm nose around 750mb but at best it might be +1C. More warm air arrives after 12z but a good 0.5"+ of liquid falls between 06z and 12z. Hence the sleet and snow precip type description. The maps don't really depict mixing precip types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 49 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Is it true that the Ukie 10:1 pivotal maps count sleet as snow? Pivotal maps do not count sleet as snow. Take a look at the R GEM and the CMC. Mostly sleet for the sub forum and shows very little accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yes they do, that is not snow on that Ukie map, it’s grossly overdone, counting sleet as snow. I suspect the new Euro comes in warmer given what it did at 6z. Nothing at all has changed since yesterday, it is still a non event for snow south of I-84. It’s a ping-fest at best south of 84 Pivotal weather maps don't count sleet as snow for the most part with other models. Where are your sources about UKIE snow maps including sleet? Funny how the NWS has nearly 3 inches in Rockland by 12z Friday. You might want to give them a call and let them know your thoughts. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Some models are showing a heavy ZR area near the city and north shore especially. RGEM would be an ice storm warning level event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Some models are showing a heavy ZR area near the city and north shore especially. RGEM would be an ice storm warning level event. If the sleet before the ZR sticks at all things could get real hazardous. Hopefully the ZR ends up a minimal amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 13 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Some models are showing a heavy ZR area near the city and north shore especially. RGEM would be an ice storm warning level event. As with every setup like this it usually trends more so snow or sleet to rain near the coast. However we did already have one ZR event this winter and we have a 1040+ high so its possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Snowier 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Snowier https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022022212&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= YUP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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