binbisso Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Models trended colder On the overnight runs. Picking up on the low level cold air and high pressure now Is closer to northern New England. not sure how much snow falls but it looks mainly frozen from the city North and West the 6Z RGEM Has 1" LE falling as all sleet from the city North 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 think about what it would've been like on this forum in 1993-94 from December thru March lol 2 storms every week 30 total storms It would have been batshit insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Pretty unlikely it plays out that way this is one of those setups you do not want to be on the south shore, despite the colder water temps. This has been and always will be a city Nw storm. The northern parts of the city and the extreme north shore of the island are the big question, could be pretty high impact Yep, starting to look like it could be pretty dicey especially the northern half of the city and LI north of the LIE. I’m still not expecting much snow but could be prolonged sleet instead if the surface front can stay offshore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Anyone have 6z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Anyone have 6z Euro? Slightly warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Slightly warmer That stinks. I mean these types of systems typically move north over time. Still sticking with 1 to 3 LI to 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: That stinks. I mean these types of systems typically move north over time. Still sticking with 1 to 3 LI to 84. The best we can hope for is a few hours or frozen precip near the coast . It sucks because this storm will be loaded with moisture. This would have been another outcome with blocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 31 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Hopefully colder trends prevail today. I hate wasting storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 26 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Hopefully colder trends prevail today. I hate wasting storms. The is high is leaving. No blocking to keep it in place. And the air mass isn’t that cold to begin with. If this was a month ago it could have been different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Strange distribution on the island on east winds. It’s hard for it to snow more in MTK then the north shore of Nassau on that wind direction. I think that’s too close to model output vs reality 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: That is only through 7am Friday...probably doesn't matter for NYC proper but for northern areas there may be additional beyond this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 33 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Strange distribution on the island on east winds. It’s hard for it to snow more in MTK then the north shore of Nassau on that wind direction. I think that’s too close to model output vs reality It’s at the time of year where urban heat island will hurt, and the cold air is generally coming from the NE, so this is a rare setup where it can snow more on the Forks than NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 A lot depends on how the storm tonight winds up into Canada and where it ends up bringing the confluence down into.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: That’s only till 7am.. tack on additional for northern areas (Orange,Putnam) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 32 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It’s at the time of year where urban heat island will hurt, and the cold air is generally coming from the NE, so this is a rare setup where it can snow more on the Forks than NYC. It's still kind of early i think for the noted March urban heat island effect on winter storms so to speak but I think in this case its primarily due to the fact the mid and upper levels are warming from the SW so further east may benefit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: That stinks. I mean these types of systems typically move north over time. Still sticking with 1 to 3 LI to 84. I said I hoped the south trend would continue because they usually bump north. If the 12z runs go back north it's not a good sign at all for south of I84. For any kind of real snow we need them to at least stay the same or go even further south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Strange distribution on the island on east winds. It’s hard for it to snow more in MTK then the north shore of Nassau on that wind direction. I think that’s too close to model output vs reality Probably there expecting a heavy burst of snow before any change over no? Or cold air damming/ funneling down the rivers up north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Long Island is not getting 6 inches like the gfs shows but I could see 2 inches on north shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Long Island is not getting 6 inches like the gfs shows but I could see 2 inches on north shore. It's snow and sleet but they do get a few inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's snow and sleet but they do get a few inches of snow I don't know. Pivotal weather maps generally do a good job with the sleet unlike TT. GFS has Long Island snowing for 6 hours before changeover. I don't think that is going to happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 No significant changes so far on 12z suites, GFS snow distribution still looks weird and CMC still torching the mid levels for everyone in the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Northern long Island fairs far better at marginal winter time events and holding onto frozen precip a little longer versus south lie. Will all depend on on fast temps rise I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: No significant changes so far on 12z suites, GFS snow distribution still looks weird and CMC still torching the mid levels for everyone in the subforum. Nam, while still out of range, the 12k looks Colder then 6z at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I don't know. Pivotal weather maps generally do a good job with the sleet unlike TT. GFS has Long Island snowing for 6 hours before changeover. I don't think that is going to happen though. Models still struggling with this, CMC and GFS look nothing like each other for NYC/LI. Your area there is pretty solid agreement because I think CMC is overdoing the mid level warmth a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: The is high is leaving. No blocking to keep it in place. And the air mass isn’t that cold to begin with. If this was a month ago it could have been different. Agreed here. The GFS is still the cold outlier. That model is just a really horrible anymore. None of the other models, RGEM, CMC, NAM, UKMET, ICON, Euro/EPS look anything like it. There’s a reason why it’s ranked at #4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Northern long Island fairs far better at marginal winter time events and holding onto frozen precip a little longer versus south lie. Will all depend on on fast temps rise I guess. Agree There microclimate is like SNE They get more snow than the rest of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Agreed here. The GFS is still the cold outlier. That model is just a really horrible anymore. None of the other models, RGEM, CMC, NAM, UKMET, ICON, Euro/EPS look anything like it. There’s a reason why it’s ranked at #4 You do realize all the models have trended colder. We all know you hate snow I do agree about the high but it's still a strong high and this is still winter so I don't know what NJ is talking about. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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