February 24/25 Potential Winter Storm

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Doorman said:

and at the benchmark the next run???? 

Hopefully 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hopefully 

As you said this morning not getting a snowstorm in NYC with a primary going into PA no matter what happens with secondary. However some snow with a wintry mix definitely still on the table. Looking decent for HV and SNE.   

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

As you said this morning not getting a snowstorm in NYC with a primary going into PA no matter what happens with secondary. However some snow with a wintry mix definitely still on the table. Looking decent for HV and SNE.   

Euro has been deamplifying the primary 

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, Doorman said:

and at the benchmark the next run???? 

what evidence do you have that this will all shift south ? 

[HVSnowLover]

At hour 96 (height of precip) 850/925 temps below freezing on Euro for parts of the city. Thats a frozen precip signal to me.  

[HVSnowLover]

Pretty much every model now spitting out over 1 inch liquid so difference between 31 and 33 will be big with this storm from a washout to a giant mess.   

[Doorman]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

what evidence do you have that this will all shift south ? 

https://psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/spag_f120_us.html

Persistence Forecasting----

[Rjay]

15 minutes ago, Doorman said:

euro pops a coastal low ......more changes ahead

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

I'd say there is little chance if any this can evolve to be more than 1-3 hours of snow to start in NYC but it sure could evolve to be 80% frozen..rarely will a SWFE be 100% frozen in NYC...especially if its not predominantly snow...there has been only 1-2 SWFE events I remember which were predominantly ZR or P which stayed all frozen near the city 

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'd say there is little chance if any this can evolve to be more than 1-3 hours of snow to start in NYC but it sure could evolve to be 80% frozen..rarely will a SWFE be 100% frozen in NYC...especially if its not predominantly snow...there has been only 1-2 SWFE events I remember which were predominantly ZR or P which stayed all frozen near the city 

If it does end up 80% frozen it will probably be mostly sleet changing to a little rain at the end. ZR unlikely in NYC and also the antecedent airmass is not that cold. 

[HVSnowLover]

2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Looked at the 12z GFS very quickly.

The primary makes it to around Albany before transferring to the coast. Seems like a classic late developing miller B.

Coastal develops so late that really only Central and Northern New England cash in.

The ice threat looks minimal as unlike the last storm, temperatures are warming at the surface.

You do have that 1036mb high over SE Canada but it's retreating and not far enough South. We would have wanted it over Northern New England.

850mb freezing line moves well North after 12z Friday.

Anyone North of the 0c line on this frame is good for about a 6 hour period of Snow changing to sleet and then some freezing rain before everyone flips over to plain rain. South of this is mostly sleet/ice changing to plain rain.

Even over Rockland sounding show the surface around 30 which won't be cold enough to cause significant icing issues, especially since it will be short lived.

If you look at the trend for the last four runs, it did actually hang onto the cold air longer after trending warmer the last two runs. 

Still time to go but we're a long way away from a big snow storm South of I-84.

 

 

I don't think anyone is calling for a big snowstorm south of I84. A sloppy mess is most likely with maybe a few inches of snow at the start. We still have about another 24 hour window for any meaningful changes. 

[snowman19]

22 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

what evidence do you have that this will all shift south ? 

His wishes, hopes and prayers. I don’t know why he’s persistently trying to wishcast this into a NYC metro area snowstorm. It’s not happening 

[HeadInTheClouds]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

His wishes, hopes and prayers. I don’t know why he’s persistently trying to wishcast this into a NYC metro area snowstorm. It’s not happening 

Nobody ever said this was going to be a NYC metro snowstorm but they can get maybe an inch or 2 on the front end and most of precip may fall as frozen. Go back to hugging the cmc. 

[White Gorilla]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

His wishes, hopes and prayers. I don’t know why he’s persistently trying to wishcast this into a NYC metro area snowstorm. It’s not happening 

Oh you mean just like you wishcast every potential snow event as a non event?  I see.  

[LibertyBell]

57 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'd say there is little chance if any this can evolve to be more than 1-3 hours of snow to start in NYC but it sure could evolve to be 80% frozen..rarely will a SWFE be 100% frozen in NYC...especially if its not predominantly snow...there has been only 1-2 SWFE events I remember which were predominantly ZR or P which stayed all frozen near the city 

and most of those were in 06-07 and 07-08

 

[romba]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what is he chasing?

 

What else? A succulent, plump fire roasted weenie.

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

So close

But so far. It’s the story with 90% of SWFEs here. I-90 is the spot for this one. The real questions for us are how much is sleet vs rain and can we get an hour or so good snow to start. 

[romba]

I get the stat-padder folks who want that initial snow thump to add to their totals, but for my neck of the woods it's the potentially hefty sleet amount, and whether it will accumulate or not...

[HVSnowLover]

10 minutes ago, romba said:

I get the stat-padder folks who want that initial snow thump to add to their totals, but for my neck of the woods it's the potentially hefty sleet amount, and whether it will accumulate or not...

I agree the sleet is the real story here for the metro area. Probably have a better idea by late tomorrow if the storm will be mostly wet or icy.  

[weathermedic]

From the afternoon OKX forecast discussion:

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Canadian high pressure builds in Wednesday night into Thursday,
bringing a return to cooler temperatures. Lows should be at or below
freezing everywhere across the forecast area, with highs on Thursday
in the 30s to around 40.

Long wave trough over the western US Wednesday night will slowly
induce a broad area of low pressure over the southern states along a
frontal boundary well to our south. This low will northeast Thursday
night, with a secondary low developing off the Delmarva Peninsula
late Thursday night. This low will then become the primary low and
track just south or over Long Island by late Friday into Friday
afternoon, then pull away from the areas by Friday night.

There are still some uncertainty with the track. However, most
ensemble members in the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble take the low well
west of the 40/70 benchmark. This track would indicate a snow to
rain scenario for much of the area.

Looking at forecast soundings and ensemble probabilities of
precipitation types, thinking that much, if not all the area starts
off as snow or rain/snow mix for New York City and Long Island.
However, do expect to wetbulb and at some point a majority of the
area will be snow, at least for a few hours. Then, as warmer air
works into the area, a wintry mix of snow and sleet, then rain and
sleet is possible along the coast Thursday night, before changing
over to plain rain early Friday morning. There is high confidence of
a change over to plain rain along these areas, uncertainty exists as
to when.

Things get more complicated and thus more uncertain as you head
farther north in regards to whether there will be a changeover to
plain rain or not. Northeast New Jersey and southern Connecticut
will likely see snow Friday morning, but there is a chance of sleet
mixing in , and an even lesser chance of freezing rain. This wintry
mix line will head north in the afternoon and all but the interior
will change over to all rain. There is moderate confidence that
southern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and coastal Connecticut
change over, with low confidence of areas farther north.

A period of moderate to heavy precipitation is possible late
Thursday night into Friday morning as the low makes its closest
approach. This could bring significant snow accumulations for the
interior, but that all depends on the timing of any changeover, but
the potential is there. Though its worth noting that NBM is only
giving about a 20% chance of seeing greater than 6" at KSWF.

High pressure builds in for Friday night, with cold conditions for
Saturday. There is the potential for another coastal storm to impact
the region Sunday into Sunday night.

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

From the afternoon OKX forecast discussion:

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Canadian high pressure builds in Wednesday night into Thursday,
bringing a return to cooler temperatures. Lows should be at or below
freezing everywhere across the forecast area, with highs on Thursday
in the 30s to around 40.

Long wave trough over the western US Wednesday night will slowly
induce a broad area of low pressure over the southern states along a
frontal boundary well to our south. This low will northeast Thursday
night, with a secondary low developing off the Delmarva Peninsula
late Thursday night. This low will then become the primary low and
track just south or over Long Island by late Friday into Friday
afternoon, then pull away from the areas by Friday night.

There are still some uncertainty with the track. However, most
ensemble members in the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble take the low well
west of the 40/70 benchmark. This track would indicate a snow to
rain scenario for much of the area.

Looking at forecast soundings and ensemble probabilities of
precipitation types, thinking that much, if not all the area starts
off as snow or rain/snow mix for New York City and Long Island.
However, do expect to wetbulb and at some point a majority of the
area will be snow, at least for a few hours. Then, as warmer air
works into the area, a wintry mix of snow and sleet, then rain and
sleet is possible along the coast Thursday night, before changing
over to plain rain early Friday morning. There is high confidence of
a change over to plain rain along these areas, uncertainty exists as
to when.

Things get more complicated and thus more uncertain as you head
farther north in regards to whether there will be a changeover to
plain rain or not. Northeast New Jersey and southern Connecticut
will likely see snow Friday morning, but there is a chance of sleet
mixing in , and an even lesser chance of freezing rain. This wintry
mix line will head north in the afternoon and all but the interior
will change over to all rain. There is moderate confidence that
southern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and coastal Connecticut
change over, with low confidence of areas farther north.

A period of moderate to heavy precipitation is possible late
Thursday night into Friday morning as the low makes its closest
approach. This could bring significant snow accumulations for the
interior, but that all depends on the timing of any changeover, but
the potential is there. Though its worth noting that NBM is only
giving about a 20% chance of seeing greater than 6" at KSWF.

High pressure builds in for Friday night, with cold conditions for
Saturday. There is the potential for another coastal storm to impact
the region Sunday into Sunday night.

Very detailed, like it. 

[HVSnowLover]

GFS has gone from the cold outlier to one of the warmer models now in the mid levels. 

[brooklynwx99]

GFS going to be colder... more confluence in SE Canada

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

GFS has gone from the cold outlier to one of the warmer models now in the mid levels. 

Yep very weird

[HVSnowLover]

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GFS going to be colder... more confluence in SE Canada

It started off improved but then got kind of messy and ugly. Still time to go with this.  

[HeadInTheClouds]

A little wonky but does give metro area some snow. 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said:

Very detailed, like it. 

I love the implications for Sunday into Sunday night

[Brasiluvsnow]

4 hours ago, Doorman said:

and at the benchmark the next run???? 

From your keyboard to mother natures ears

[Brasiluvsnow]

3 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

Oh you mean just like you wishcast every potential snow event as a non event?  I see.  

if the previous 2 events were any indication than all I can add that this would make snowy a 3peat offender

[NJwx85]

We could definitely get a good 3-6 hour front end dump before the changeover for inland areas. Problem is the high is retreating and the air mass is stale.