HeadInTheClouds Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: Almost the entire state of MA is 6+ (10:1) on every model. So jealous. It's been almost 13 months since I saw 6" of snow here in Morris County. For some areas this will be #3 or 4 this winter alone. Spoiled fckers. Im only at 15.5 up here north of 84 but this one will help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: 13 months ? Jeez I saw 2 storms 6+ this winter It's not like it hasn't snowed. There have been a good number of 1-2" events. But we always want more and bigger. I know you enjoyed your two solid events, but I bet you were still a little jealous of LI, SE CT, and SNJ when they got 12+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 For what it's worth, Lee Goldberg was just on and showing a futurecast that looked a lot like the GFS/NAM, i.e., a bit of snow (an inch or two for NYC), then a fair amount of sleet, then maybe a bit of ZR and then rain, but not rain until 8-9 am, which would mean a real mess on even NYC streets with temps around 32F and 1-2" of snow and 2-3" of sleet (which is 6-9" of snow equivalent) for 7-11" of snow equivalent, which makes sense as those two models are showing nearly 1" of LE by 7 am before any rain. I don't think anyone is thinking this storm will be as impactful as the GFS/NAM are showing right now for the immediate NYC/NENJ/LI area (and maybe even down into CNJ north of the Raritan/202, which would include me). Those Tidbits maps show a ton of sleet. And the CMC got "snowier" vs. 12Z, according to the Pivotal snow depth map, which I believe is mostly sleet and which I don't believe is at 3:1 ratios (maybe 5:1, since it's probably some snow and sleet); Tidbits doesn't show sleet as snow on the CMC. Hey @MGorse- you were very helpful answering my questions about how the NWS does take into account snow/liquid ratios in their snowfall forecasts a few weeks ago (as per internal calcs, not Kuchera), so thought I'd throw out another question. Does the NWS ever put out sleet accumulation forecasts or are they just folded into the snowfall forecasts at maybe 3:1 sleet:liquid ratios? I've never seen any, but maybe I've missed it. IMO, sleet is greatly underestimated by most with regard to impact, as 3" of sleet is roughly the same frozen mass as 10" of snow, both of which have about the same impact on driving (apart from visibility impacts) and snow removal - so it would be nice to have sleet maps or somehow factored in better in the snow maps. Thanks, in advance, for any insights. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 10 minutes ago, eduggs said: It's not like it hasn't snowed. There have been a good number of 1-2" events. But we always want more and bigger. I know you enjoyed your two solid events, but I bet you were still a little jealous of LI, SE CT, and SNJ when they got 12+. Of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Im only at 15.5 up here north of 84 but this one will help. I like the southern Catskills to the CT-MA border for the jackpot zone. But if the model consensus is a hair too warm, you might be golden where you're at. Max QPF may end up just south of where the max snow is currently forecasted. If that lines up with a snow column it's double digits. I'm rooting for you because your area is due. If and when you mix with sleet you may not change over completely since mid-level warming will be weakening over time and there may be a dynamical cooling element to ptype with a shallow layer above freezing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Rgem was one huge mess Friday morning. Hope that's wrong and we just rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Rgem was one huge mess Friday morning. Hope that's wrong and we just rain. Anything is better than rain 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I am a little surprised that this thread is not more active,,,,I mean it is not as if this event is a week away as we are now looking at 48 hours away. There is a good amount of moisture and some good trends thus far and the models are not light years apart 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: I am a little surprised that this thread is not more active,,,,I mean it is not as if this event is a week away as we are now looking at 48 hours away. There is a good amount of moisture and some good trends thus far and the models are not light years apart People don't really care about a slop event. You have to go to SNE to get a snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Anything is better than rain I agree Ant BUT I hate freezing rain / ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Anything is better than rain I'll take rain over an icy slop any day. The only time I don't mind sleet and ZR is if it's on top of a few inches of snow. It's good for snowpacks and that's about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: I'll take rain over an icy slop any day. The only time I don't mind sleet and ZR is if it's on top of a few inches of snow. It's good for snowpacks and that's about it. Nope, I'll take a bit of snow, some sleet and a little ZR (which is much less impactful on top of snow/sleet) over rain any day... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: People don't really care about a slop event. You have to go to SNE to get a snowfall. No you don't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: No you don't. I'm talking about a good snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I'm talking about a good snowfall Drive right up the hudson. You won't have to go too far for some decent snows. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 9 hours ago, bluewave said: 2003 to 2022 Coating to 6…Light 6-12…………Moderate 12-24………Heavy 24-36………Real Accumulations 1979 to 1993 Coating to 3….Light 3-6…………Moderate 6-12…….…Heavy 12-24……..Real Accumulations lol I have my own definitions under 1" coating 1-3" light 3-6" moderate 6-10" significant 10-20" major 20"+ historic 30"+ biblical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 hours ago, eduggs said: It's not like it hasn't snowed. There have been a good number of 1-2" events. But we always want more and bigger. I know you enjoyed your two solid events, but I bet you were still a little jealous of LI, SE CT, and SNJ when they got 12+. Brooklyn and Queens are actually part of Long Island and they got similar totals in those storms to what Nassau County got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 6 hours ago, SRRTA22 said: We sleet. In these type of set ups i find that the changeover line likes to hover around S.I while areas just N sleets Exactly. It’s always good to throw in a little historical precedent. I have been doing snow removal on the far uws while living on the south shore for about a decade. I have experienced many events with similar setups where we have significantly more frozen on the uws then the south shore. There have even been several events with plowable snow/ice on the uws where it’s mainly rain on the SS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Almost the entire state of MA is 6+ (10:1) on every model. So jealous. It's been almost 13 months since I saw 6" of snow here in Morris County. For some areas this will be #3 or 4 this winter alone. Spoiled fckers. Dude, sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you. I live here, too, and we got hammered last year. You’re not going win them all. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Albany issues Winter Sturm Watch for Eastern New York into Western New England for tomorrow, 6-12 inches. Our area obviously closer to 6, Massachusetts closer to 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Here's this morning’s blend of models snowfall for this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Typical LA Nina with SNE getting the goods 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Why did I get a weenie for that ? It's the truth about La Nina's. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Typical LA Nina with SNE getting the goods Eh, of course we love snow, but even my sixth grader doesn’t want another snow day and doesn’t want his baseball fields muddied up. We’re getting into that time of winter for a very wet snow that melts into a field soaking mess.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, North and West said: Eh, of course we love snow, but even my sixth grader doesn’t want another snow day and doesn’t want his baseball fields muddied up. We’re getting into that time of winter for a very wet snow that melts into a field soaking mess. . This is what I hated when I played little league. We should be expecting this every year. Spring sucks in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Grann Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This is what I hated when I played little league. We should be expecting this every year. Spring sucks in our area Spring is a month away. When I grew up on SI in the 70's,nobody was worried about baseball field conditions In February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 This is what I hated when I played little league. We should be expecting this every year. Spring sucks in our areaCorrect. He plays Fall Ball and it’s much more pleasant, since September and October are historically the driest times of year here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Spring is a month away. When I grew up on SI in the 70's,nobody was worried about baseball field conditions In February That was fifty years ago, sooo… . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 35 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Why did I get a weenie for that ? It's the truth about La Nina's. No it's not...it's the truth about LATITUDE! The further north you are the more snow you will normally get lol. I can't believe you would be surprised by this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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