mikem81 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Starting new thread to track. For now EURO amped/ GFS middle/ CMS south 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 It seems like these overrunning storms don't result in much snow for NYC. Hudson Valley and New England do well...sometimes the Mid-Atlantic. Hopefully we all do well...if that's even possible with such a storm 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 18, 2022 Author Share Posted February 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: It seems like these overrunning storms don't result in much snow for NYC. Hudson Valley and New England do well...sometimes the Mid-Atlantic. Hopefully we all do well...if that's even possible with such a storm I think water temp this time of year make SWFE better than if it were December. Ocean is at 40 instead of 55 so the SW wind is less of an issue but it can still get ugly at 850 and sleet... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 18, 2022 Author Share Posted February 18, 2022 Pretty consistent ensemble support a week out. Need earlier coastal and weaker primary. EURO known to hold that primary into the lakes the longest at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 14 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: It seems like these overrunning storms don't result in much snow for NYC. Hudson Valley and New England do well...sometimes the Mid-Atlantic. Hopefully we all do well...if that's even possible with such a storm Consensus of the models so far is that this event would be primarily a sleet/ice event going over to rain for most in the metro. Better chances of accumulating snow would be north of I287. Of course a lot can and will change. As always be very careful with clown maps with this type of setup as they will overstate snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 I misplaced my Etch A Sketch......... Big picture .......old man winter has some cards on the table---or up his sleeve???? 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 My money is on Doorman 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 18, 2022 Author Share Posted February 18, 2022 34 minutes ago, Doorman said: I misplaced my Etch A Sketch......... Big picture .......old man winter has some cards on the table---or up his sleeve???? Need the Tuesday storm to form a 50/50 low to create some sort of block and lock in the HP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Metasequoia said: It seems like these overrunning storms don't result in much snow for NYC. Hudson Valley and New England do well...sometimes the Mid-Atlantic. Hopefully we all do well...if that's even possible with such a storm They always favor those areas, however NYC can easily pick up 4 to 8 before mixing in these type of events. November 2018 NYC had 6.5 before changeover. March 2011 had 4.5 I am missing a thousand. But yes generally the city gets 1 to 3 before a changeover. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 lets take a southern slider track out of the mix (ATM) crazy azz west coast ridge is a solid bet for starters-imho 96 hr OPC (four day) prog clues us in with some validity 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 47 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: My money is on Doorman My money right now is on this "potential whatever" being mainly liquid south of I-80...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 2 hours ago, Metasequoia said: It seems like these overrunning storms don't result in much snow for NYC. Hudson Valley and New England do well...sometimes the Mid-Atlantic. Hopefully we all do well...if that's even possible with such a storm In March 2015 we did well but that was an abnormally cold winter overall. 1993-94 was another example....but again a much colder winter than this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 30 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: They always favor those areas, however NYC can easily pick up 4 to 8 before mixing in these type of events. November 2018 NYC had 6.5 before changeover. March 2011 had 4.5 I am missing a thousand. But yes generally the city gets 1 to 3 before a changeover. these storms generally suck unless you're extremely cold beforehand as in the winters above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Tatamy said: Consensus of the models so far is that this event would be primarily a sleet/ice event going over to rain for most in the metro. Better chances of accumulating snow would be north of I287. Of course a lot can and will change. As always be very careful with clown maps with this type of setup as they will overstate snow amounts. I haven't seen the longer range but is this first storm just supposed to be the doorway into a much colder and possibly snowier pattern? Something to look forward to in case this first one doesn't pan out. I think the March 2nd possible storm might have the highest potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 21 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: My money right now is on this "potential whatever" being mainly liquid south of I-80...... Im not so sure about that but too early for those details. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 I love the tea leave and crystal ball forecasts (already) but let me hand pick one frame of the latest EPS ------just for the sake of argument careful what you hug 7 days out blend and balance...balance and blend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 big thump for pretty much everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: big thump for pretty much everyone the position of the HP to the north - the timing of the system coming from the southwest and whether or not there is some sort of blocking to keep the HP in place longer will determine the track of the storm -MAYBE A REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE COAST ? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: the position of the HP to the north - the timing of the system coming from the southwest and whether or not there is some sort of blocking to keep the HP in place longer will determine the track of the storm -MAYBE A REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE COAST ? This is a case where we snow MORE the longer the primary stays west due to strong CAD. This is why even though the storm cut more this run we still ended up snowier. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Nice 4 to 8 thumper even down to Philly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Battle Zone .....ATM not a bad start for the hard core trackers 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, Doorman said: Battle Zone .....ATM not a bad start for the hard core trackers Actually trended warmer from 12 Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 5 hours ago, Tatamy said: Consensus of the models so far is that this event would be primarily a sleet/ice event going over to rain for most in the metro. Better chances of accumulating snow would be north of I287. Of course a lot can and will change. As always be very careful with clown maps with this type of setup as they will overstate snow amounts. "Be careful with clown maps" here is like saying don't do drugs to an addict. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Meh wake me up in a week when the threat is at our doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Ukie and CMC are much warmer All depends on the high up north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Ukie and CMC are much warmer All depends on the high up north a best case scenario for this kind of storm is what happened in late February 2008. Look up that storm, an SWFE in a mild pattern occurred mainly at night and into the morning, a surprise 6-8 inches that didn't change over until the very end of the storm, and then it went to drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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