A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Looking like a solid rainer on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 I am so glad that I went from almost a foot to 4 inches. Not from SE trend, but a N trend. F*** this winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Looking good here for decent snows with a synoptic/LES combo. Thinking DLH will do really well this time around. Monday will be the best day for me. NE surface flow with due E 850's will bring LES straight in to me together with the upper level energy moving through. DLH is thinking 2 waves, with the first one being the strongest. LES situation more favorable for DLH and south shore Tuesday than here along with the second, weaker upper wave. If the north bump is true, then my 3-6" thinking from yesterday is now more like 8" for here in town. This one is going to put TH seasonal snow right near average before Feb is even done. Lots of snow this year, with 2 months of potential left. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 I'm actually glad this one broke the trend and didn't trend southeast. Def don't want all that ice that southern WI/northeast IA appears will get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 With the north trend probably won’t see much more then an inch tomorrow, just thick overcast. Going to really need wave 2 on Tuesday to preform after the beating our snowpack is taking today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: I'm actually glad this one broke the trend and didn't trend southeast. Def don't want all that ice that southern WI/northeast IA appears will get. Counterpoint: jelly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Yeah ice is awesome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 18z HRRR freezing rain accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Ez toss here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 would like to have this as EZ toss as well (dont need ice) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: Ez toss here Seems like it's trying to use the cold lake to drop temps below freezing and produce ice. Would be a bit of an odd solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 hours ago, Natester said: 18z HRRR freezing rain accumulation. Lake effect ZR 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Assuming models are correct, this setup always delivers here. Expecting 15-24" by the time all is said and done and probably closer to the 24 inches. Made it to 31 today before the front arrived. Temp is now down to 19 with light nw flow lake effect trying to get going. Winds should begin to shift northerly and then north easterly by morning. If the snow unfolds as forecast, there's going to be some impressive depths up here. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Interestingly enough the two biggest storms of the season locally, (12/10 & now 2/21) have had northward shifts inside 24hrs. My 4-8 call is looking pretty solid for the metro, just north of here to Duluth will see double digit totals reign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 DLH really jacked up totals. We shall see. Seems the earlier totals were based on 15 & 18:1, but now its 18 & 20:1. Edit: Here's the discussion. the 2nd paragraph is what I've been mentioning earlier. Ice is a big factor here, and it was spread out yesterday with the strong SW winds. Nonetheless, a long fetch should help out, and let the precip be a little heavier than normal along the immediate shore. We are much closer to open water up here than DLH is, but the ice will help moisture precip out earlier than if it was open water right on shore like I mentioned earlier. Seen that many times over the years. The first feature will be an FGEN band that utilizes moisture from the Gulf of Mexico in the warm sector underneath a strong right entrance region of a 140kt 250mb jet on Monday morning. The second feature will be a developing low coming out of the Four Corners region that crosses the Midwest and drapes its deformation zone atop the baroclinic zone. PWATs with these features range from 0.25 to 0.40. A deep DGZ will be situated right over the Twin Ports for the majority of the event. This coupled with the upper level forcing provided by the eventual cyclogenetic system, ejecting out of the Four Corners region, should cause this event to be prolonged and last into late Tuesday. There will likely be a lull between these features where snowfall rates drop significantly on Tuesday morning before sunrise. The depth of the DGZ will be efficient in converting the relatively minimal amount of PWAT into fluffy snow with snow ratios of 18:1 and even as high as 20:1 expected. In the primary band of snow, the QPF with this system is expected to be around 0.75 to 1.00. So after putting this all together, we are expecting snowfall totals in excess of foot in the main band of snow that extends from St. Cloud into Ashland, WI and nicks the Twin Ports with around a foot of snow too. Other factors to watch for are lake enhancement due to the long fetch of northeasterly winds across Lake Superior. The last clear shot from satellite indicates that the vast majority of Lake Superior is unfrozen with one large island of ice extending from Superior to the Apostles. This ice flow was headed east; however, the northeasterly winds should bring that back to the western end of the lake. This has the potential to kill the lake enhancement, but when and to what degree is unknown and it may only dampen the effect. For this package, did up the snowfall amounts along the North Shore from Duluth to Silver Bay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 0z 3km NAM only putting out 0.2-0.3” of liquid equivalent for the cities. Really need a juiced storm to make its way here to ease the lingering drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Pretty significant differences in timing between the 00Z HRRR and 3KM NAM, with Madison continuing to accrue ZR through 20Z Tuesday afternoon the former; while the event is essentially done by 09Z Tuesday morning on the latter. @madwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 0Z Model output wasn't friendly to my area. The goods are still delivered but it feels fringy. This might be Brian D's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Model outputs for southern WI have come down quite a bit in recent runs (what else is new, but it's ice, so I'm relatively OK with that). Looks like most significant icing will be over NE IL including the NW burbs; and northern Lower MI. 12Z HRRR has obscene totals in SE WI and far NE IL? Lake-effect ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Model outputs for southern WI have come down quite a bit in recent runs (what else is new, but it's ice, so I'm relatively OK with that). Looks like most significant icing will be over NE IL including the NW burbs; and northern Lower MI. 12Z HRRR has obscene totals in SE WI and far NE IL? Lake-effect ZR?At this point we’re definitely not looking at sig ice in the suburbs, and quite likely not in NE IL either.The HRRR struggles with the effects of lake ice and tries to alter the environment. It’s not realistic.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Moderate snow falling right now. Couple inches so far this morning. Winds are not bad, a little gusty, but they are supposed to pick up more later on. Snow is light, and dry, it blows around really easy. TH Live cam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Lake enhanced snow on the increase this morning with an almost due east flow off the lake. Forecast is for around 13" today/tonight and another 8" tomorrow. 12z model average for my area is 27". Was a little surprised to just see a WWA but in Marquette County, the forecast messaging leans heavy to the city. A few hi-res models really nail this area with 3 feet over 48 hours... something to watch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 20 minutes ago, weatherbo said: Lake enhanced snow on the increase this morning with an almost due east flow off the lake. Forecast is for around 13" today/tonight and another 8" tomorrow. 12z model average for my area is 27". Was a little surprised to just see a WWA but in Marquette County, the forecast messaging leans heavy to the city. A few hi-res models really nail this area with 3 feet over 48 hours... something to watch. One of my best events at MTU came from an east wind. 14" in 2 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Lots of dry air aloft and things looking a bit convective. Feel like this will end up as a long period of freezing drizzle with occasional sleet when the convective showers hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 21, 2022 Author Share Posted February 21, 2022 39 minutes ago, weatherbo said: Lake enhanced snow on the increase this morning with an almost due east flow off the lake. Forecast is for around 13" today/tonight and another 8" tomorrow. 12z model average for my area is 27". Was a little surprised to just see a WWA but in Marquette County, the forecast messaging leans heavy to the city. A few hi-res models really nail this area with 3 feet over 48 hours... something to watch. when i started this thread I was hoping to finally avoid a SE shift little did I know it was going to become a Superior Special 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 30 minutes ago, Lightning said: One of my best events at MTU came from an east wind. 14" in 2 hours. That's insane. The closest I've come to experiencing an event like that was the winter of 12-13 living in Antrim County, NW lower. 12 inches of snow fell in 3 1/2 hours when a dominant Lake Superior connected band parked itself over the western part of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Baum said: when i started this thread I was hoping to finally avoid a SE shift little did I know it was going to become a Superior Special Brian D should start the next thread. His original GHD 111 storm thread delivered for a lot of snow starved folks. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 This confirms what I said earlier about the ice causing the immediate shore to get good snows. DLH put up this storyboard showing the snow right along the shoreline, and current radar still shows the same. LES bands are getting stronger now for some north of me due to the 850 wind being due East, and N WI is getting hammered with synoptic, and lake enhanced lifted snows. A small LES band has been sitting just N of Ashland all morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 56 minutes ago, weatherbo said: That's insane. The closest I've come to experiencing an event like that was the winter of 12-13 living in Antrim County, NW lower. 12 inches of snow fell in 3 1/2 hours when a dominant Lake Superior connected band parked itself over the western part of the county. That is still a very cool event to get that much!! It actually happened twice when I was at Tech. Both ~2 hours long and both ended at 14". 1st one was in the middle of the night so I mostly missed it (I don't really count that one much). 2nd time was in the evening around 7-9. It was crazy as I took a nice long walk during it. The roads were basically at a stand still as I was walking faster than any vehicle moving on the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 43 minutes ago, Brian D said: This confirms what I said earlier about the ice causing the immediate shore to get good snows. DLH put up this storyboard showing the snow right along the shoreline, and current radar still shows the same. LES bands are getting stronger now for some north of me due to the 850 wind being due East, and N WI is getting hammered with synoptic, and lake enhanced lifted snows. A small LES band has been sitting just N of Ashland all morning. Yeah it will be interesting to see the totals at Washburn area as some models have that band there for several hours!! Wish I could drive there right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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