Radtechwxman Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 We creating a 2nd thread for part 2 Thurs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 We creating a 2nd thread for part 2 Thurs? if you insist.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 19, 2022 Author Share Posted February 19, 2022 welp. I may have ended the SE trend with this thread: TO SUM UP THIS STORM, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING THE HIGHEST (4-8") OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-90, WITH LESSER SNOW AMOUNTS BUT AN INCREASING ICE POTENTIAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE. GIVEN THE RECENT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE MODEL PROGS OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS STILL A MODEST DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THIS FORECAST.- Lacrosse, WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 06z NAM gives us about 18 straight hours of sleet, with it still going at the end of the run. Only about .2 of liquid equivalent accumulation so would be light overall better than freezing rain I'd say 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 12 minutes ago, madwx said: 06z NAM gives us about 18 straight hours of sleet, with it still going at the end of the run. Only about .2 of liquid equivalent accumulation so would be light overall better than freezing rain I'd say That’s a lot of sleet time but yes better then ice. I’m actually happy for a rain event definitely better then ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Looks like we finally get our north trend. Enjoy the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Pretty cool pic from last storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 19, 2022 Author Share Posted February 19, 2022 11 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Looks like we finally get our north trend. Enjoy the rain. wait until Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Baum said: wait until Thursday. When it’s goes south!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 17 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: When it’s goes south!!! If there is a huge arctic push of cold air behind the first storm it may trend south like the others. Obviously not the only factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 It’s still 3 days or so away. The SE and weaker runs should start anytime. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 hour ago, roardog said: It’s still 3 days or so away. The SE and weaker runs should start anytime. lol It's already weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 12z Euro has a siggy ice storm in a band from NE Iowa through southern Wisconsin and northern Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Haven't looked into it too much but probably because recent runs seem to have trended toward a more robust sfc low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 I will be in the UP for this one so should get some snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 This might be another ice jam producer on Tuesday but that's about it. Storm later in the week is the one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 DVN AFD mentions possible ice storm on Tuesday. TUESDAY COULD BE MESSY, WITH A SCENARIO OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE SFC LOW, UPPER TROF MIGRATION AND POSSIBLE IN-WRAPPING DRY SLOT, MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE MOVING OUT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BY TUE EVENING. CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE THAT MOST OF THE DVN CWA MAY GET A RANGE OF 0.05 TO 0.18 INCH OF ICE, ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SLEET ACCUMS AND UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF THE WETTER AND MORE DEVELOPED/DEEPER SFC LOW MODELS VERIFY THAT WOULD PRODUCE HIGH ICE AMOUNTS, AND POSSIBLY QUICKER TOP-DOWN DYNAMICAL COOLING FOR HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS TUE AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A IOWA CITY TO WEST OF DUBUQUE LINE. THE WETTER ECMWF EVEN IF IT HOLDS ON RAIN LONGER, MAY PRODUCE OVER A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IN SPOTS ON FROZEN GROUND PRODUCING PONDING AND RUN-OFF. THE EURO WOULD ALSO PRODUCE A LOCALIZED SWATH OF HIGHER ICE AMOUNTS OF ICE STORM WARNING CRITERIA GENERALLY WEST OF A DUBUQUE TO ANAMOSA IA LINE. TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS A CHALLENGE WITH CLOUDS, PRECIP AND BOUNDARY MOVEMENT ALL AFFECTING VALUES, RANGES COULD BE FROM THE 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 This what DLH is showing in their weather story boards today. North trend of snow axis setting up a swath of snow between the Twin Cities and DLH. Looking at a mix of synoptic, and LES for the head of the lake across the south shore. Gusty ENE to NE winds should make this a little interesting, but I'm not expecting much more than 3-6" here in town blowing all over the place. Depends on what the lake has to offer, overall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Winter Storm watching hoisted for Minneapolis. 6-9” we are riding the southern edge of the best totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 I’m quite pleased with the potential for mid 50s here around DTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 The wild card for me is the lake ice situation. Quite a bit out there, but the middle of the lake is still open. With a long fetch expected from the ENE (pretty much the whole lake), that will bring in more moisture that will overrun the ice here on the west side. Essentially the lake forms its own WAA situation as the milder, moister air overruns the colder icy surface. That usually means I end up doing pretty well on the shore for LES than I would typically see when there is no, or limited ice. Even under this scenario, not expecting much anyway, like I stated above. But the lake being what it is, anything can happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Euro ice for Wisconsin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 43 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Euro ice for Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 54 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Euro ice for Wisconsin That is alot more ice than what Weathernerds was showing. Would be catastrophic for the power grid if that verifies, especially with the 35-40 mph wind gusts Tuesday afternoon. Good news here is that the euro and the UKMET have Cedar Rapids above freezing when the main show starts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 0z RGEM alot drier for the Tuesday part of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Looks like a nice long duration snowstorm in the UP. I will be in a cabin in the Hiawatha national forest. That will be my 3rd 6"+ snowstorm in 3 weeks! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 would do anything to avoid that euro solution in terms of freezing rain. The GFS still has lower precip amounts and more sleet in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 20, 2022 Author Share Posted February 20, 2022 fixed the SE trend problems here: "WITH THE FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAN 24 HOURS AGO" even got a Thorm mention in the forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 39 minutes ago, Baum said: fixed the SE trend problems here: "WITH THE FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAN 24 HOURS AGO" even got a Thorm mention in the forecast. Rain over ice anytime 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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