Baum Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 going to throw my hat in to the ring and start a thread. It's been a while. Also been awhile since we've seen a sw low eject and strengthen. Well. this ain't it either. Rather majority of models show an overrunning moisture feed over a decent baroclinic zone producing snow/mix/ and rain . As of now main focus on northern tier of forum, but let's see where it goes. Anything to bring an about face to the southeast and weaker games we've seen forever. Or as a pro who shall remain nameless puts it: "It’s not even all that much of an overrunning event, but more-so the development of an actual storm system due to the interaction of a wave ejecting from the Baja and another wave with the main trough coming through the West." either way, let's hope for a good outcome. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 feel like our better shot is with what comes after this one totally support the thread tho and send some first place all-star break vibes your way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 First potential is 21-22nd, not 22-23rd fyi.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 This one likely has the best shot of ending up further north to some degree when compared to GHD3 and the current storm system, given the setup and trough orientation on paper currently.It’s not even all that much of an overrunning event, but more-so the development of an actual storm system due to the interaction of a wave ejecting from the Baja and another wave with the main trough coming through the West.. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 36 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: feel like our better shot is with what comes after this one totally support the thread tho and send some first place all-star break vibes your way agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Models have been showing this for a while and they are all pretty consistent. Unfortunately, that means consistently showing mostly light mix around here with only a bit of light snow at the tail end. It's looking quite good for our Minneapolis area members. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Can't wait for this to end up weak and over Springfield as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 The strong banana high type signature to the north all but assures a messy/icy transition zone somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 euro going nw and stronger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Funny enough, it's the GFS that is not as amped this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 you mean I chose the cuttter we've all been expecting which will leave me with front end rain, a dry slot, and a back end snowshower? Well the goal was to break the SE trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Have this time period mentioned in the Holiday 2022 thread. Hope it works out for you guys. At least Feb is being a little kinder for the southern sub than the previous months of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Obviously will depend on details of how the upper air pattern evolves, but call this a gut feeling or whatever, I don't think it's going to be easy to get the front back north of here after it passes through around Monday. Regardless of what happens, hopefully somebody cashes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Fairly decent consistency on the GFS ens. Of course, we saw this movie last time so not getting too invested. Euro still onboard for late week potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 18, 2022 Author Share Posted February 18, 2022 this thread will be swallowed by the thread Chicago Storm is going to start for the late week event isn't it? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 GFS wants to clobber lower Michigan with ice from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 early signs are that we will be right on the line between snow and mixed precip with this one, really hoping it stays just snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 18, 2022 Author Share Posted February 18, 2022 where's the dam se trend when you need it? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 18, 2022 Author Share Posted February 18, 2022 5 hours ago, Baum said: this thread will be swallowed by the thread Chicago Storm is going to start for the late week event isn't it? than again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 5 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: GFS wants to clobber lower Michigan with ice from this Yeah let’s not have an ice storm. No fun for anyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomp2mp Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 59 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Yeah let’s not have an ice storm. No fun for anyone Especially this guy 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 The models have been consistently slamming Minneapolis run after run with a long duration snowfall. Trying not to get my hopes up to much, but at this point 4-8 seems like a reasonable call. Moisture connection to the Pacific and Gulf. Going to be a good weekend of model watching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 NWS thoughts… Monday-Wednesday...This portion of the forecast will be garner the most attention in the coming days as models have been rather consistent in bringing a prolonged appreciable snowfall to the Upper Midwest. A system still churning in the eastern Pacific will drop southeast along the Rockies Saturday through Sunday. Additional cyclogenesis will take place over WY/CO/KS Sunday night into Monday while enhanced isentropic lift broadly spreads east across the Northern Plains through the Great Lakes. This is likely to have snowfall develop Sunday night into Monday across MN and WI while the system slowly develops and lumbers east into the mid-Mississippi River Valley. This system looks to have two appreciable moisture sources: Pacific moisture being dragged along and in advance of the system and tapping Gulf of Mexico moisture northward towards the Upper Midwest. Given the strong dynamics of the system, its broad swath of moisture, and its slow forward speed within a pivoting H5 trough to enhance lift, there`s many ingredients in place to indicate that a prolonged event (early Monday through Tuesday evening) of accumulating snow is rather likely. There`s still plenty of model solutions out there with varying snowfall accumulations and also where those accumulations will be placed, in addition to that there will be breezy conditions with this system which will exacerbate winter weather impacts. Therefore, it is too early to speculate with high confidence snowfall amounts and impacts. These elements should become clearer over the coming days to give more details into the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 2 hours ago, thomp2mp said: Especially this guy I’m dead.. that’s hilarious my wife is looking at me like I’m insane from laughing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Well, if there's one thing, this doesn't look to be a significant ice storm for my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Natester said: Well, if there's one thing, this doesn't look to be a significant ice storm for my neck of the woods. The qpf in the ice zone does look to be on the lighter side, but that should actually mean more efficient accretion of what does occur. Not wasting to runoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The qpf in the ice zone does look to be on the lighter side, but that should actually mean more efficient accretion of what does occur. Not wasting to runoff. That is true I noticed that also. I guess I can’t put the skates away yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 27 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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