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Feb 14 Super Bowl comeback snow OBS


Ginx snewx
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I feel like western New England have gotten a lot less snow in recent years overall… like recent climo has favored eastern and central areas. Is that wrong to think? I mean because northwestern CT has long term climo averages of a TON of snow compared to other parts of the state but they ain’t been getting it.

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I knew there could be some upside in this one, but didn't think 8" amounts would get all the way back here (figured SE MA/RI had a shot at that)...that was an impressive little fluff warning event. I'm not sure I ever got official moderate snow in this event....it was just a lot of 1 mile type light snow but with excellent snow growth.

 

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So HOW were you guys all over this storm when all the TV Mets on Friday night said C-1 / C-2?  And they maaaybe changed to 2-4 Satisfy (which I missed because I have up on the storm like Ray).  I thought you so gave up by Thursday...  After you made fun of George's excitement.  

 

I mean I Literally woke up Sunday morning and had NO IDEA it was even going to snow.  And I get 9.5", 26 hours of snow, Incredible fluff, 43.25" Season.  AND NEARLY Jackpot!  

 

Just complete and utter Shock and Awe.  If only the Bengals had Won and I Jackpotted it souks have been a Bear perfect day.  

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9 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

So HOW were you guys all over this storm when all the TV Mets on Friday night said C-1 / C-2?  And they maaaybe changed to 2-4 Satisfy (which I missed because I have up on the storm like Ray).  I thought you so gave up by Thursday...  After you made fun of George's excitement.  

 

I mean I Literally woke up Sunday morning and had NO IDEA it was even going to snow.  And I get 9.5", 26 hours of snow, Incredible fluff, 43.25" Season.  AND NEARLY Jackpot!  

 

Just complete and utter Shock and Awe.  If only the Bengals had Won and I Jackpotted it souks have been a Bear perfect day.  

the models were off even while the storm was happening. They were to far east.

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Funny fronto wins again. After Friday I paid more attn to this. I know I joked to Ant about flurries Friday night or whenever it was, but when the models started having that band of prolonged QPF..you figure that isn't just 24 hrs of pixie dust....that's a classic sign of a fluff job.

 

I'd also argue QPF was a little higher than modeled too which can happen.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Funny fronto wins again. After Friday I paid more attn to this. I know I joked to Ant about flurries Friday night or whenever it was, but when the models started having that band of prolonged QPF..you figure that isn't just 24 hrs of pixie dust....that's a classic sign of a fluff job.

 

I'd also argue QPF was a little higher than modeled too which can happen.

Yeah most guidance was probably a little light on QPF (except maybe the most bullish runs of HRRR/RAP)...there was a decent area of over 0.50" QPF on the south shore looking at the cocorahs map.

Still, pretty impressive ratios were most of the deal...like I had 8" but all the cocorahs around here are in the 0.3-0.40" liquid equivalent range....that's a pretty big fluff job....20+ to 1 ratios. ALmost every model sounding I looked at had good snow growth too which I probably should have hit harder in my thinking. I was a little worried about dry air filtering in from the north, but that only seemed to be an issue on the northern edge of the band.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah most guidance was probably a little light on QPF (except maybe the most bullish runs of HRRR/RAP)...there was a decent area of over 0.50" QPF on the south shore looking at the cocorahs map.

Still, pretty impressive ratios were most of the deal...like I had 8" but all the cocorahs around here are in the 0.3-0.40" liquid equivalent range....that's a pretty big fluff job....20+ to 1 ratios. ALmost every model sounding I looked at had good snow growth too which I probably should have hit harder in my thinking. I was a little worried about dry air filtering in from the north, but that only seemed to be an issue on the northern edge of the band.

Funny you said that, the NAM sort of had a wedge of drier air move into NE MA and near BOS last night...you could see it on the sim reflectivity. Sure enough it happened a bit...even here it got to a lousy SG type snow for a few hours while that band hit you down into RI. You guys really caught up. 

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