2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[arlwx]

Severe thunderstorm warning for the Bealton-area storm, including Springfield.

[arlwx]

Here's the text.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
406 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2022  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHWESTERN STAFFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  
  SOUTH CENTRAL FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  
  SOUTHEASTERN FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  
  SOUTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  
  THE SOUTHERN CITY OF MANASSAS IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  
  
* UNTIL 445 PM EDT.  
  
* AT 406 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF  
  BEALETON, OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WARRENTON, MOVING EAST AT 35  
  MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
  IMPACT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES   
           TO FALL. THIS COULD INJURE THOSE OUTDOORS, AS WELL AS   
           DAMAGE HOMES AND VEHICLES. ROADWAYS MAY BECOME BLOCKED BY   
           DOWNED TREES. LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.   
           UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  DALE CITY, SPRINGFIELD, WOODBRIDGE, LAKE RIDGE, BURKE, MONTCLAIR,  
  LORTON, NEWINGTON, DUMFRIES, MANASSAS, WEST SPRINGFIELD, CHERRY  
  HILL, FAIRFAX STATION, INDEPENDENT HILL, NORTH SPRINGFIELD,  
  RAVENSWORTH, MASON NECK, NOKESVILLE, OCCOQUAN AND CATLETT. 

[arlwx]

Another warning.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
413 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2022  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHWESTERN CHARLES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...  
  STAFFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  
  WEST CENTRAL KING GEORGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  
  EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  
  THE CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  
  SOUTHEASTERN FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  
  SOUTHEASTERN CULPEPER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  
  SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  
  SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  
  
* UNTIL 445 PM EDT.  
  
* AT 412 PM EDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
  EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BEALETON TO NEAR MINERAL,  
  MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  
  

[adelphi_sky]

Let's see if I can get a break. Storms reformed around me not over me. So dry even the weeds are dying. hehe

[mattie g]

Would have been nice today to get some nice stratiform rains after the line.

[mappy]

Outflow hit as I was on 83 heading north, was a whirlwind of leaves all across the highway and trucks def moved in their lanes 

[arlwx]

Just as I thought it was all over, a couple of booms in Arlington.

[IronTy]

I've been getting stressed but that southern end appears to be refiring over SoMD.  Just in time, hoooooold it!!

[AmericanWxFreak]

45 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Would have been nice today to get some nice stratiform rains after the line.

Some solid straitforming going on across DC, HOCO, and MOCO

[Eskimo Joe]

M0.11" rain. My desert has become a prairie. 

[IronTy]

What a bunch of horseshit.  Line collapsed and then a new one flared right to my east basically along the entire bay.  So far more dead leaves have fallen than raindrops.  HRRR might win the day on this one.  Hopefully that line of showers at least keeps its shit together.  

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, IronTy said:

What a bunch of horseshit.  Line collapsed and then a new one flared right to my east basically along the entire bay.  So far more dead leaves have fallen than raindrops.  HRRR might win the day on this one.  Hopefully that line of showers at least keeps its shit together.  

Hahaha happened up here too. Got a little rain and some pity rumbles of distant thunder 

[IronTy]

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

Hahaha happened up here too. Got a little rain and some pity rumbles of distant thunder 

A verifiable travesty.  

[CAPE]

Thin but intense looking line heading this way. See if it holds together. Pretty noisy off to the west.

[IronTy]

Total failure.  Even the showers collapsed and it's back to sun.  Drought of the century marches onward.   At least it's cooler.  

[IronTy]

Consolation prize, decent rainbow while walking the pup.

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[mattie g]

14 hours ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Some solid straitforming going on across DC, HOCO, and MOCO

It rained for over an hour here, but it was just some pretty light stuff that dropped about 0.10". Some pretty decent booms though.

Disappointing, but...eh.

[high risk]

Last hurrah for this thread??    Pretty clear in the CAMs that strong convection will form later Monday afternoon, but there is disagreement on location, timing, and coverage.     Regardless, shear will be more than adequate, and instability overall looks to be sufficient (and somewhat impressive on the latest NAM Nest and HRRR runs).    The MRGL is certainly warranted (as is the 2% TOR, although low-level shear might be too weak), and I would not be surprised if this ends up as a SLGT.

[Kmlwx]

1 hour ago, high risk said:

Last hurrah for this thread??    Pretty clear in the CAMs that strong convection will form later Monday afternoon, but there is disagreement on location, timing, and coverage.     Regardless, shear will be more than adequate, and instability overall looks to be sufficient (and somewhat impressive on the latest NAM Nest and HRRR runs).    The MRGL is certainly warranted (as is the 2% TOR, although low-level shear might be too weak), and I would not be surprised if this ends up as a SLGT.

Been at a wedding all weekend and haven't been following anything. Was surprised to see the severe thread with posts!

[Eskimo Joe]

12 hours ago, high risk said:

Last hurrah for this thread??    Pretty clear in the CAMs that strong convection will form later Monday afternoon, but there is disagreement on location, timing, and coverage.     Regardless, shear will be more than adequate, and instability overall looks to be sufficient (and somewhat impressive on the latest NAM Nest and HRRR runs).    The MRGL is certainly warranted (as is the 2% TOR, although low-level shear might be too weak), and I would not be surprised if this ends up as a SLGT.

I think we have one sneaky October day with low freezing levels left in the bag.

[Kmlwx]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I think we have one sneaky October day with low freezing levels left in the bag.

Don't forget November pencil thin gusty shower season. Though with the right negative tilt trough we can perform... There was a day in November 2006 like that I believe. 

[high risk]

No doubt that we could certainly get a low-topped event in the next 2 months, but for now, today's storms seem to have initiated ahead of schedule.    NAM Nest is further south, but the HRRR has been pretty consistent with the greatest coverage around DC and points north.

[batmanbrad]

so what are the odds of a pity MD (a MD for Md., ha!)  in the next hour or so?

[toolsheds]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I think we have one sneaky October day with low freezing levels left in the bag.

I think we have had a few times on Halloween over the last 5 years with Severe threats, but could be wrong. 

[George BM]

2 minutes ago, toolsheds said:

I think we have had a few times on Halloween over the last 5 years with Severe threats, but could be wrong. 

Halloween of 2019 had a high-end ENH risk for wind (45%) and an ENH risk for tornadoes (10%). Locations in SE PA got estimated 110mph TSTM wind gusts that night!

[Eskimo Joe]

16 minutes ago, George BM said:

Halloween of 2019 had a high-end ENH risk for wind (45%) and an ENH risk for tornadoes (10%). Locations in SE PA got estimated 110mph TSTM wind gusts that night!

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20191031

[southmdwatcher]

The storm near Culpeper needs to be watched. Now severe warned.

[WeatherShak]

Suns out guns out?




.

[Kmlwx]

Yeah some of these cells have the mini supercell look. 

[AlexD1990]

Got a PITY MD

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