2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm hopeful but remain skeptical at the moment

I'm watching your area and Western MoCo...that outflow coming down from the north could interact with the incoming activity if it's timed right...maybe. My eyes are peeled on the TIAD radar for signs of new initiation. 

 

ETA: In fact...looking at visible satellite - there's perhaps hints of some agitation of the cumulus clouds right ahead of the big time storms/clouds from the west and north. Certainly watching for new development in the areas mentioned above. West/Central MoCo, Potomac River, Leesburg area, down to Haymarket maybe. 

[psuhoffman]

It blew the kids plastic toy house about 75 yards into the neighbors yard. My patio furniture is all over the yard. It’s a mess. 

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm hopeful but remain skeptical at the moment

I’m skepticaler

[Kmlwx]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

I’m skepticaler

Over/under on 3 raindrops for YBY?

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I'm watching your area and Western MoCo...that outflow coming down from the north could interact with the incoming activity if it's timed right...maybe. My eyes are peeled on the TIAD radar for signs of new initiation. 

 

ETA: In fact...looking at visible satellite - there's perhaps hints of some agitation of the cumulus clouds right ahead of the big time storms/clouds from the west and north. Certainly watching for new development in the areas mentioned above. West/Central MoCo, Potomac River, Leesburg area, down to Haymarket maybe. 

Remember i'm down by Aldie now basically where 15 and 50 intersect

[high risk]

11 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Winchester cell (now seems to be weakening a bit - (good job Cappucci lol) still has mostly an easterly component to the motion. The southern part split off and kind of took a turn to the south. Interested to see if the northern updraft just sort of peters out now as the southern one cranks. 

           He's completely accepting the details of the HRRR which has been pretty consistent in weakening that system.    Not totally sure how much I'd trust that.

[Kmlwx]

Just now, high risk said:

           He's completely accepting the details of the HRRR which has been pretty consistent in weakening that system.    Not totally sure how much I'd trust that.

Though - given our propensity to fail at weather around here - I get where he's coming from  - Certainly seems like that complex has overall trended down just a tad recently. My main question is whether there will be new activity or if that existing stuff will "rejuvenate" or cycle back up. 

[LeesburgWx]

Radar looking for us to get hit hard. Let’s go! Hope it holds strength over the ridge! 

[yoda]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Though - given our propensity to fail at weather around here - I get where he's coming from  - Certainly seems like that complex has overall trended down just a tad recently. My main question is whether there will be new activity or if that existing stuff will "rejuvenate" or cycle back up. 

Not saying its the same at all -- but didn't the June derecho kind of rejuvenate when it came east of i81 out of WV?

[Kmlwx]

Just now, yoda said:

Not saying its the same at all -- but didn't the June derecho kind of rejuvenate when it came east of i81 out of WV?

I'm not sure it technically weakened - I think maybe there's some radar stuff and how it interacts with the terrain perhaps? Or just how reflectivity is imaged with the higher terrain. I remember there being tons of reports pretty solidly as it came through the mountains and into our area - and reduction in the LSRs from that event to the west might have been from just less population to report severe. 

[Kmlwx]

CIMMS probsevere placefile has been steadily coming down on the hail percentages on the VA line. But wind probs have stayed very elevated. 

[toolsheds]

20 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Can see clear outflow boundary racing out from the Northern Maryland activity. It's draped from like Brunswick east to Mount Airy right now. - That is likely to have *some* sort of impact on the incoming stuff...or it may trigger new activity in the parts of the area that have not had storms yet. 

Was watching the front approach with a lot of rotation heading this way about 15 minutes ago.  We were well ahead of the actual storm, but the shear was very obvious in the video I took.  I'm not surprised that PSU had something run through up there.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

If nothing else, it’s a helluva bow

[Kmlwx]

Some increase in reflectivity now between just west of Purcellville down towards NW of Middleburg. Whether it's just the radar or actually cycling up again remains to be seen. LWX radar has a hail marker again in GR2AE. Increase in lightning in that area as well which would indicate intensification. 

[SnowenOutThere]

11 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Though - given our propensity to fail at weather around here - I get where he's coming from  - Certainly seems like that complex has overall trended down just a tad recently. My main question is whether there will be new activity or if that existing stuff will "rejuvenate" or cycle back up. 

Looks like it’s trying to with the last frames. There are some greys and whites pixels mixed with the reds. 

[aldie 22]

I can hear thunder in the distance

[yoda]

4 hours ago, mappy said:

Hey friends, do you know timing? I haven’t looked at models but need to let Mr Map know as we’ve got landscaping work going on at home. Good luck today, I’m rooting for ya from the west coast! 

Severe Tstorm Warning up for you

[Kmlwx]

Yep - decent uptick in lightning in two little "pods" one between Charles Town and Hillsboro and another in the previously mentioned area. And as I type this even more lightning now showing up. Let's see if it makes a run at higher end severe again. 

[osfan24]

Looks like the NAM had the right idea with the split. Seemed like it might fill in some with that appendage that was hanging down around Frederick but it has shrunk a bit and gone north.

[AdamHLG]

Trees and wires are down everywhere - everywhere - near Chestnut Ridge in Central Baltimore County.  We have no power.

[aldie 22]

56% hopeful 44% skeptical at the moment.

[Lucketts Life]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

56% hopeful 44% skeptical at the moment.

Thunder becoming louder as it approaches. First drops now.

[LeesburgWx]

Sky is looking legit to the west now and Thunder getting louder

[biodhokie]

Already seeing mammatus clouds on the leading edge here in Tysons.

[Kmlwx]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

56% hopeful 44% skeptical at the moment.

Well...out of what is currently that "line" or cluster - the most intense part might be heading right for you. 

[BlizzardNole]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It blew the kids plastic toy house about 75 yards into the neighbors yard. My patio furniture is all over the yard. It’s a mess. 

Wow just read your posts, that is some crazy stuff -- sounds like 80-plus gusts?  Even if straight-line winds, being on top of that ridge probably made them stronger in your yard

[aldie 22]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Well...out of what is currently that "line" or cluster - the most intense part might be heading right for you. 

Yeah looking at radar I can't see how this misses but after 20 years on here i'm never shocked or surprised

[yoda]

This near you @psuhoffman?

 

[Kmlwx]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Yeah looking at radar I can't see how this misses but after 20 years on here i'm never shocked or surprised

The radar is probably broken and giving a false return in Leesburg  

[biodhokie]

Looking towards MD from Tysons Corner