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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)


Kmlwx
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
354 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northeastern Shenandoah County in northwestern Virginia...
  Frederick County in northwestern Virginia...
  Northern Warren County in northwestern Virginia...
  Clarke County in northwestern Virginia...
  The City of Winchester in northwestern Virginia...
  East central Hardy County in eastern West Virginia...
  Southeastern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia...

* Until 445 PM EDT.

* At 352 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Wardensville,
  or 15 miles southeast of Romney, moving east at 55 mph.

  THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR PORTIONS OF FREDERICK COUNTY,
SHENANDOAH COUNTY, WARREN COUNTY, AND CLARKE COUNTY IN VA INCLUDING
THE CITY OF WINCHESTER.

  HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and tennis ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your
           life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to
           some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to
           roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes.

* Locations impacted include...
  Winchester, Strasburg, Millwood Pike, Berryville, Stephens City,
  Wardensville, Star Tannery, Middletown, Boyce, Yellow Spring, High
  View, White Post, Gaylord, Blue Mountain, Nineveh, Albin, Bethel,
  Clary, Capon Springs and Stringtown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind
speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are
especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be
overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause
serious injury and significant property damage.

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing
widespread wind damage across portions of northern Virginia. SEEK
SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows!

Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground
lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately.
Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3921 7794 3914 7784 3906 7789 3900 7799
      3894 7804 3904 7865 3927 7852
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 280DEG 48KT 3916 7859

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH
 
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Southern part

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
404 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

VAC139-171-187-WVC031-122045-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0249.000000T0000Z-220712T2045Z/
Shenandoah VA-Warren VA-Page VA-Hardy WV-
404 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN SHENANDOAH...WARREN...NORTHEASTERN PAGE AND EAST
CENTRAL HARDY COUNTIES...

At 403 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Wardensville,
or 8 miles north of Woodstock, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large
         enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to
         roofs, siding, and windows is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Front Royal, Strasburg, Woodstock, Linden, Chester Gap, Maurertown,
Toms Brook, Fort Valley, Arco, Seven Fountains, Dilbeck, Harmony,
Alonzaville, Riverton, Karo, Glen Echo, Bentonville, Fishers Hill,
Browntown and Buckton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing widespread
wind damage across northern Shenandoah County. SEEK SHELTER NOW
inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3889 7873 3904 7862 3904 7861 3894 7804
      3892 7807 3891 7807 3889 7806 3889 7809
      3888 7811 3889 7812 3886 7813 3886 7814
      3883 7817 3879 7819
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 280DEG 48KT 3899 7854

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
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Jesus 

onal Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
411 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

VAC043-069-171-187-840-WVC027-031-122045-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0248.000000T0000Z-220712T2045Z/
Shenandoah VA-Frederick VA-Warren VA-Clarke VA-City of Winchester VA-
Hardy WV-Hampshire WV-
411 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN SHENANDOAH...FREDERICK...NORTHERN WARREN AND CLARKE
COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEASTERN HARDY AND
SOUTHEASTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE CITY
OF WINCHESTER...

At 409 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Stephens City,
or 7 miles southwest of Winchester, moving east at 55 mph.

THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA
ESPECIALLY INCLUDING THE CITY OF WINCHESTER AND Stephens CITY.

HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and tennis ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Many mobile
         homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Many homes and
         businesses will have substantial roof and window damage.
         Expect extensive tree damage and power outages.

Locations impacted include...
Winchester, Strasburg, Millwood Pike, Berryville, Stephens City, Star
Tannery, Middletown, Boyce, High View, White Post, Gaylord, Blue
Mountain, Nineveh, Albin, Bethel, Clary, Capon Springs, Stringtown,
Gravel Springs and Howellsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind
speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are
especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be
overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause
serious injury and significant property damage.

This storm is producing destructive winds and large damaging hail.
SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3902 7853 3926 7846 3921 7794 3914 7784
      3906 7789 3900 7799 3894 7804
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 280DEG 48KT 3912 7829

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...90 MPH
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The storm will likely cycle up and down at times - one thing I haven't noted yet is outflow racing out in front of it - which usually happens super quickly in our severe events. Additionally, plenty of CAPE-laden air is in the area east of the activity. So there's no obvious argument for a complete collapse. I'm somewhat doubtful it's still putting down 80mph winds when it gets closer to the metro areas...but I might be surprised with how impressive this thing looks. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

If anyone knows someone at NWS might want to get a tornado warning out on this storm here in northeast Carroll. Clear rotation on wall cloud. Hail. High winds. Nothing on ground now but worth a warning Imo. 

Can see it on radar as well. Guessing one will come - you may want to phone it onto LWX!

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Winchester cell (now seems to be weakening a bit - (good job Cappucci lol) still has mostly an easterly component to the motion. The southern part split off and kind of took a turn to the south. Interested to see if the northern updraft just sort of peters out now as the southern one cranks. 

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Can see clear outflow boundary racing out from the Northern Maryland activity. It's draped from like Brunswick east to Mount Airy right now. - That is likely to have *some* sort of impact on the incoming stuff...or it may trigger new activity in the parts of the area that have not had storms yet. 

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2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Can see it on radar as well. Guessing one will come - you may want to phone it onto LWX!

Lost power. Had to get the kids in the basement. It got bad. Too much rain/hail to tell if it was a micro burst or ef0/1 tornado but we got hit by something and it was bad enough I decided not to watch and get the kids in the basement. We lost some trees. 

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