SnowenOutThere Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 Holy moly, winds near 100 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2022 Author Share Posted July 12, 2022 There was a 95mph pixel on RadarScope (using the KLWX site) on that complex...ground truth is less dense out there - but would love to see some LSRs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 Uhh...Velocity scans in the 100 mph range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 I will take that storm aimed at Hampstead and call it a day. You all in DC can have the 100 mph winds and tennis ball sized hail lol... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 354 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Shenandoah County in northwestern Virginia... Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... Northern Warren County in northwestern Virginia... Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... The City of Winchester in northwestern Virginia... East central Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... Southeastern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 445 PM EDT. * At 352 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Wardensville, or 15 miles southeast of Romney, moving east at 55 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR PORTIONS OF FREDERICK COUNTY, SHENANDOAH COUNTY, WARREN COUNTY, AND CLARKE COUNTY IN VA INCLUDING THE CITY OF WINCHESTER. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. * Locations impacted include... Winchester, Strasburg, Millwood Pike, Berryville, Stephens City, Wardensville, Star Tannery, Middletown, Boyce, Yellow Spring, High View, White Post, Gaylord, Blue Mountain, Nineveh, Albin, Bethel, Clary, Capon Springs and Stringtown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing widespread wind damage across portions of northern Virginia. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3921 7794 3914 7784 3906 7789 3900 7799 3894 7804 3904 7865 3927 7852 TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 280DEG 48KT 3916 7859 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2022 Author Share Posted July 12, 2022 Cappucci "it will weaken" - he's really on the weakening train. Like duh...it can't stay that strong for hundreds of miles - of course it will weaken. But he's hammering the "it will weaken" headline HARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
32º Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Cappucci "it will weaken" - he's really on the weakening train. Like duh...it can't stay that strong for hundreds of miles - of course it will weaken. But he's hammering the "it will weaken" headline HARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 Southern part Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 404 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 VAC139-171-187-WVC031-122045- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0249.000000T0000Z-220712T2045Z/ Shenandoah VA-Warren VA-Page VA-Hardy WV- 404 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN SHENANDOAH...WARREN...NORTHEASTERN PAGE AND EAST CENTRAL HARDY COUNTIES... At 403 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Wardensville, or 8 miles north of Woodstock, moving east at 55 mph. HAZARD...Two inch hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Locations impacted include... Front Royal, Strasburg, Woodstock, Linden, Chester Gap, Maurertown, Toms Brook, Fort Valley, Arco, Seven Fountains, Dilbeck, Harmony, Alonzaville, Riverton, Karo, Glen Echo, Bentonville, Fishers Hill, Browntown and Buckton. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing widespread wind damage across northern Shenandoah County. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3889 7873 3904 7862 3904 7861 3894 7804 3892 7807 3891 7807 3889 7806 3889 7809 3888 7811 3889 7812 3886 7813 3886 7814 3883 7817 3879 7819 TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 280DEG 48KT 3899 7854 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2022 Author Share Posted July 12, 2022 Yeah - if you watch the loop of VIL/VILD on radar there are two cores. One heading for Winchester and the other down further south heading in the general direction of Front Royal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2022 Author Share Posted July 12, 2022 Looks like a bookend vortex kind of setup. Rotation markers showing up on GR2AE approaching Winchester in that little curl in the reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 TVS sig on Radarscope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2022 Author Share Posted July 12, 2022 CIMMS probsevere is >= 95% for hail and wind on that complex still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2022 Author Share Posted July 12, 2022 Found a 102.9mph pixel on the KLWX site radar scans on RadarScope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 Jesus onal Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 411 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 VAC043-069-171-187-840-WVC027-031-122045- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0248.000000T0000Z-220712T2045Z/ Shenandoah VA-Frederick VA-Warren VA-Clarke VA-City of Winchester VA- Hardy WV-Hampshire WV- 411 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN SHENANDOAH...FREDERICK...NORTHERN WARREN AND CLARKE COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEASTERN HARDY AND SOUTHEASTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE CITY OF WINCHESTER... At 409 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Stephens City, or 7 miles southwest of Winchester, moving east at 55 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA ESPECIALLY INCLUDING THE CITY OF WINCHESTER AND Stephens CITY. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Many mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Many homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. Locations impacted include... Winchester, Strasburg, Millwood Pike, Berryville, Stephens City, Star Tannery, Middletown, Boyce, High View, White Post, Gaylord, Blue Mountain, Nineveh, Albin, Bethel, Clary, Capon Springs, Stringtown, Gravel Springs and Howellsville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. This storm is producing destructive winds and large damaging hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3902 7853 3926 7846 3921 7794 3914 7784 3906 7789 3900 7799 3894 7804 TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 280DEG 48KT 3912 7829 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...90 MPH 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Found a 102.9mph pixel on the KLWX site radar scans on RadarScope. At ~3,300ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 This is one for the books. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 While all eyes are in VA - quite the hail sig near taneytown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2022 Author Share Posted July 12, 2022 It's in range of the TIAD radar now as well. So we'll have an additional radar to watch velocity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 Hope @EastCoast NPZ is ready And @wxtrix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2022 Author Share Posted July 12, 2022 The storm will likely cycle up and down at times - one thing I haven't noted yet is outflow racing out in front of it - which usually happens super quickly in our severe events. Additionally, plenty of CAPE-laden air is in the area east of the activity. So there's no obvious argument for a complete collapse. I'm somewhat doubtful it's still putting down 80mph winds when it gets closer to the metro areas...but I might be surprised with how impressive this thing looks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2022 Author Share Posted July 12, 2022 If we are going by echo tops, the southern cell in that complex (heading for Front Royal) may be trying to go dominant. Not sure it will succeed but we'll see. It has the higher tops right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 If anyone knows someone at NWS might want to get a tornado warning out on this storm here in northeast Carroll. Clear rotation on wall cloud. Hail. High winds. Nothing on ground now but worth a warning Imo. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2022 Author Share Posted July 12, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: If anyone knows someone at NWS might want to get a tornado warning out on this storm here in northeast Carroll. Clear rotation on wall cloud. Hail. High winds. Nothing on ground now but worth a warning Imo. Can see it on radar as well. Guessing one will come - you may want to phone it onto LWX! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2022 Author Share Posted July 12, 2022 Winchester cell (now seems to be weakening a bit - (good job Cappucci lol) still has mostly an easterly component to the motion. The southern part split off and kind of took a turn to the south. Interested to see if the northern updraft just sort of peters out now as the southern one cranks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 Storm came through here. Moderate wind, heavy rain and marble sized hail. Nothing special at least right i downtown Funchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2022 Author Share Posted July 12, 2022 Can see clear outflow boundary racing out from the Northern Maryland activity. It's draped from like Brunswick east to Mount Airy right now. - That is likely to have *some* sort of impact on the incoming stuff...or it may trigger new activity in the parts of the area that have not had storms yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Can see it on radar as well. Guessing one will come - you may want to phone it onto LWX! Lost power. Had to get the kids in the basement. It got bad. Too much rain/hail to tell if it was a micro burst or ef0/1 tornado but we got hit by something and it was bad enough I decided not to watch and get the kids in the basement. We lost some trees. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2022 Author Share Posted July 12, 2022 LWX with the big polygons now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 I'm hopeful but remain skeptical at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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