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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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poolz1
poolz1

Bro In law caught this beast of a bolt in Fenwick yesterday.  Too bad the neighbor's roof blocks part of the view but a pretty wild shot nonetheless.           

poolz1
poolz1

Lots of thunder, lightning and heavy rain.  No wind hardly at all.  Perfect rainbow storm with the sun breaking out as the clouds cleared to the west. Saw the rainbow and told my 12 yo daughter to tak

Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I was stuck in a meeting and couldn't get outside, but that Loudoun cell was looking pretty beastly from inside on approach. Thankful that the worst stayed just north of me

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arlwx

arlwx

Posted
Posted

From the latest LWX forecast: 

Timing on supercells or a line of
intense thunderstorms reaching the metro areas would be 4pm to
8pm. Much of this activity will reach southern Maryland closer
to 8pm to 10pm. Nonetheless, it looks like a busy and stormy
day.
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09-10 analogy

09-10 analogy

Posted
Posted

The afternoon AFD is pretty bullish (boldface is mine):

  

A line of severe thunderstorms, producing frequent lightning,
very heavy rain, and damaging winds, are aligned from south-
central Pennsylvania, across western Maryland, and into northern
West Virginia. Large hail and tornadoes are also possible during
the afternoon into this evening across much of our CWA.
Additional severe thunderstorms are imminent given the amount of
sunshine from this morning, large instability as some 0-3 km
shear. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10pm for
our entire CWA. Also, a Flood Watch is in effect until midnight
tonight for much of the metro areas of Baltimore and Washington
DC and into southern MD and eastern VA. The metro areas could be
greatly impacted between 4pm and 8pm with these severe
thunderstorms.

Don't often see that kind of strong language from them. 

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Am hoping that area between the WV complex and the Hagerstown area complex can fill in with new development. I have a bunch that the WV complex may have a tendency to bend a little more south than east and may miss me (still looks good for DC, though. Some modeling certainly has screwed parts of the area - and it's to be expected with mesoscale weather events. 

I'm still optimistic....but we'll see. Certainly looks like a more widespread event than our spotty events. 

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Various CAPE parameters have been slowly improving over the metros. Decent amount of CAPE available - DCAPE looking better on mesoanalysis than earlier. Hail parameters have been on the rise as well. 

I know this is anecdotal at best...but that WV complex is in a position that has traditionally been pretty fierce for the immediate metro area (or at least parts of). There was a storm in July 2013 I think that tracked through there, then to Winchester, and then had some nasty winds that cut right through MoCo etc. 

 

EDIT: It was July 25, 2010. Wind core was near/just north of Winchester that day and did some severe damage in the metro area. 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
333 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

WVC023-027-031-057-122000-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0244.000000T0000Z-220712T2000Z/
Grant WV-Mineral WV-Hardy WV-Hampshire WV-
333 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL GRANT...SOUTH CENTRAL MINERAL...NORTHERN HARDY AND
SOUTHWESTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES...

At 332 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles southeast of Keyser to near Moorefield, moving
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Moorefield, Burlington, Russelldale, Bean Settlement, Old Fields,
Purgitsville, Lahmansville, Mcneill, Delray, Baker, Medley, Inkerman,
Kirby, Rio, Williamsport, Junction and Mccauley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms are producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a
sturdy structure and stay away from windows.

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread
wind damage across northern Hardy County and southern Hampshire
County. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away
from windows.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3903 7869 3909 7911 3939 7896 3921 7851
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 257DEG 37KT 3935 7891 3909 7905

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
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AmericanWxFreak

AmericanWxFreak

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Various CAPE parameters have been slowly improving over the metros. Decent amount of CAPE available - DCAPE looking better on mesoanalysis than earlier. Hail parameters have been on the rise as well. 

I know this is anecdotal at best...but that WV complex is in a position that has traditionally been pretty fierce for the immediate metro area (or at least parts of). There was a storm in July 2013 I think that tracked through there, then to Winchester, and then had some nasty winds that cut right through MoCo etc. 

 

EDIT: It was July 25, 2010. Wind core was near/just north of Winchester that day and did some severe damage in the metro area. 

Quite the hail signature forming on that storm too. 

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
  • Author
Posted

For MBY - That WV stuff will be a close shave. Right now I *really* like the trajectory...but am most concerned about it slipping south and it being more of a Fairfax or DC proper into PG event. If more can develop - or perhaps if that storm can expand a bit more as it comes off the terrain things will be less precarious. 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Holy sh*t 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
336 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  South central Mineral County in eastern West Virginia...
  Northern Hardy County in eastern West Virginia...
  Southern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia...

* Until 400 PM EDT.

* At 335 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles northeast
  of Moorefield, moving east at 50 mph.

  THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR NORTHERN HARDY AND SOUTHERN
HAMPSHIRE COUNTY WV.

  HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and two inch hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your
           life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to
           some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to
           roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes.

* Locations impacted include...
  Moorefield, Wardensville, Burlington, Russelldale, Augusta, Bean
  Settlement, Old Fields, Yellow Spring, Purgitsville, Mcneill,
  Delray, Inkerman, Kirby, Rio, Junction, Capon Springs, High View
  and Lehew.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows!

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind
speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are
especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be
overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause
serious injury and significant property damage.

Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground
lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately.
Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3927 7841 3926 7842 3924 7840 3920 7844
      3916 7841 3915 7843 3913 7844 3911 7846
      3911 7848 3903 7857 3909 7900 3934 7893
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 282DEG 44KT 3919 7889

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH
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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

For MBY - That WV stuff will be a close shave. Right now I *really* like the trajectory...but am most concerned about it slipping south and it being more of a Fairfax or DC proper into PG event. If more can develop - or perhaps if that storm can expand a bit more as it comes off the terrain things will be less precarious. 

Central MD split developing quickly on radar

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
Just now, yoda said:

Tennis ball sized hail?  Da hell 

evere Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
346 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

WVC027-031-122000-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0246.000000T0000Z-220712T2000Z/
Hardy WV-Hampshire WV-
346 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN HARDY AND SOUTHERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES...

At 345 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles northwest of
Wardensville, or 12 miles south of Romney, moving east at 50 mph.

THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR NORTHERN HARDY AND SOUTHERN
HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES IN WV.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and tennis ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your
         life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to
         some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to
         roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes.

Locations impacted include...
Wardensville, Augusta, Bean Settlement, Yellow Spring, Delray,
Inkerman, Kirby, Rio, Capon Springs, High View and Lehew.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind
speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are
especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be
overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause
serious injury and significant property damage.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3907 7887 3933 7883 3927 7841 3926 7842
      3924 7840 3920 7844 3916 7841 3915 7843
      3913 7844 3911 7846 3911 7848 3903 7857
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 282DEG 44KT 3916 7873

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH
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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
  • Author
Posted
2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Central MD split developing quickly on radar

My eyes have been on that gap since the storms formed lol. I'm cautiously optimistic. Less so for Columbia :( - Have to imagine *something* whether it be sub-severe or severe will form as the stuff comes off the higher terrain. But screw zones always setup. 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

  

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
348 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  East central Washington County in north central Maryland...
  Carroll County in north central Maryland...
  Northwestern Howard County in central Maryland...
  Northern Montgomery County in central Maryland...
  Frederick County in north central Maryland...

* Until 430 PM EDT.

* At 348 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Emmitsburg to near Wolfsville to near Saint
  James, moving east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Frederick, Westminster, Thurmont, Emmitsburg, Eldersburg, Mount
  Airy, Taneytown, Hampstead, Walkersville, Manchester, Sykesville,
  Boonsboro, Braddock Heights, New Market, Mount Lena, Gamber, Clover
  Hill, Discovery-Spring Garden, Wolfsville and
  Linganore-Bartonsville.
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biodhokie

biodhokie

Posted
Posted

 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
346 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

WVC027-031-122000-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0246.000000T0000Z-220712T2000Z/
Hardy WV-Hampshire WV-
346 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN HARDY AND SOUTHERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES...

At 345 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles northwest of
Wardensville, or 12 miles south of Romney, moving east at 50 mph.

THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR NORTHERN HARDY AND SOUTHERN
HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES IN WV.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and tennis ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your
         life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to
         some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to
         roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes.

Locations impacted include...
Wardensville, Augusta, Bean Settlement, Yellow Spring, Delray,
Inkerman, Kirby, Rio, Capon Springs, High View and Lehew.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind
speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are
especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be
overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause
serious injury and significant property damage.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3907 7887 3933 7883 3927 7841 3926 7842
      3924 7840 3920 7844 3916 7841 3915 7843
      3913 7844 3911 7846 3911 7848 3903 7857
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 282DEG 44KT 3916 7873

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

$$

BELAK

 

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