2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Source?

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
528 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022

MDC003-033-052145-
/O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0030.000000T0000Z-220705T2145Z/
Anne Arundel MD-Prince Georges MD-
528 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
ANNE ARUNDEL AND EAST CENTRAL PRINCE GEORGES COUNTIES...

At 528 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Bowie, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying
         debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter.
         Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile
         homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
central Anne Arundel and east central Prince Georges Counties,
including the following locations... Prince Georges Stadium, Riva and
Glenn Dale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors or in a vehicle, move to
the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying
debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3895 7680 3899 7677 3895 7659 3886 7673
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 309DEG 21KT 3895 7675

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

[IUsedToHateCold]

I was literally 3 miles away and I didn't see it. :(. I just saw wall cloud and some wind. 

[jewell2188]

58 minutes ago, yoda said:

Guess we should watch and see what happens back in WI/IL/IA later in tonight

Why?

[yoda]

New TW issued... off duty NWS met reports seeing funnel cloud 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
544 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southeastern Anne Arundel County in central Maryland...
  Northeastern Prince Georges County in central Maryland...

* Until 630 PM EDT.

* At 544 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Londontowne, or near Bowie, moving southeast at 25
  mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...An off duty meteorologist reported a funnel cloud.

  IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown,
           flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur.
           Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is
           likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Mayo, Shady Side and Rhode River around 600 PM EDT.
  Deale around 605 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Harwood, West River, Davidsonville, Tracys Landing, Lothian,
Galesville, Riva and Edgewater.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3875 7651 3873 7651 3872 7652 3877 7662
      3889 7675 3899 7666 3886 7647
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 305DEG 23KT 3889 7665

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

[yoda]

8 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Why?

A lot of our weather over the next few days is going to be tied to what happens out there IMO

[ThePhotoGuy]

Multiple Anne Arundel Fire Units responding to Prince George's County to assist after a "tornado" in the area of ANNAPOLIS RD & SUPERIOR LN, BOWIE. 

[NorthArlington101]

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[yoda]

In furtherance of the post above

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
606 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022

MDC003-052230-
/O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-220705T2230Z/
Anne Arundel MD-
606 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY...

At 606 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Shady Side,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying
         debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter.
         Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile
         homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Anne Arundel County, including the following
locations... Galesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors or in a vehicle, move to
the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying
debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3886 7648 3882 7649 3880 7651 3884 7654
      3889 7651 3886 7647
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 293DEG 22KT 3884 7648

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

 

[yoda]

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
616 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  South central Anne Arundel County in central Maryland...

* Until 645 PM EDT.

* At 616 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Deale, moving southeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown,
           flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur.
           Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is
           likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Shady Side and Deale around 625 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Lothian, Friendship, Tracys Landing and Galesville.

[midatlanticweather]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
620 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022


The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a


* Tornado Warning for...
West central Talbot County in eastern Maryland...
Southwestern Queen Anne's County in northeastern Maryland...


* Until 700 PM EDT.


* At 619 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Kent Point, or near Shady Side, moving east at 20
mph.


HAZARD...Tornado.


SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.


IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
damage is likely.


* Locations impacted include...
Talbot, Romancoke and Tilghman Island.

N

[CAPE]

Absolutely pouring here. No thunder. No wind.

[yoda]

1 hour ago, ThePhotoGuy said:

Multiple Anne Arundel Fire Units responding to Prince George's County to assist after a "tornado" in the area of ANNAPOLIS RD & SUPERIOR LN, BOWIE. 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
554 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     TORNADO          1 N BOWIE               38.98N  76.73W
07/05/2022                   PRINCE GEORGES     MD   911 CALL CENTER

            STRUCTURES DAMAGED WITH INJURIES REPORTED NEAR
            ANNAPOLIS RD AND SUPERIOR LANE


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2204101

 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[Eskimo Joe]

TOR for Worcester County, MD

[yoda]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     TORNADO          1 N BOWIE               38.98N  76.73W
07/05/2022                   PRINCE GEORGES     MD   NWS STORM SURVEY

            STRUCTURES DAMAGED ALONG WITH TREES UPROOTED AND
            SNAPPED, AND POWERPOLES SNAPPED. AT THIS TIME, THERE
            HAVE BEEN NO CONFIRMED REPORTS OF INJURIES. ESTIMATED
            MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF 90 MPH. A COMPLETE PNS WILL BE
            ISSUED WEDNESDAY JULY 6TH, WITH MORE DETAILS.


&&

CORRECTED REMARKS...SOURCE

EVENT NUMBER LWX2204101

 

[IUsedToHateCold]

Quote

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
218 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2022

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR BOWIE MD TORNADO EVENT TUESDAY 
JULY 5 2022...CORRECTED DAY

RATING: EF1 
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90 MPH 
PATH LENGTH: 1.0 MILE
PATH WIDTH: 125 YARDS 
FATALITIES: 0 
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: JUL 5 2022 
START TIME: 531 PM EDT 
START LOCATION: 1 NW BOWIE MD 
START LAT/LON: 38.9710/-76.7470

END DATE: JUN 5 2022 
END TIME: 534 PM EDT 
END LOCATION: 1 NE BOWIE MD 
END LAT/LON: 38.9697/-76.7281

A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM SPAWNED A BRIEF EF1 TORNADO JUST NORTH OF 
BOWIE, MD IN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY LATE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON JULY 5 
2022 BETWEEN 5:31 AND 5:34 PM EDT. THIS SUPERCELL SPAWNED ALONG THE 
HOWARD/MONTGOMERY COUNTY LINE AS A RESULT OF A REMNANT MESOSCALE 
CONVECTIVE VORTEX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WHICH HAD MOVED THROUGH 
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLIER IN THE DAY. IT EVOLVED INTO A CLUSTER OF 
CELLS INITIALLY BEFORE SPLITTING OFF INTO AN INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELL 
THAT WOULD DEVELOP ROTATION AS IT MOVED OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN 
MONTGOMERY COUNTY INTO NORTHWESTERN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY. 

THE TORNADO CAUSED EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IN THE SOMERSET
SUBDIVISION JUST NORTH OF BOWIE, MD. THERE WAS ALSO ONCE INCIDENCE
WHERE A TREE HAD FALLEN ON TOP OF RESIDENCE ON STAFFORD LN. THE 
MOST CONCENTRATED AREAS OF DAMAGE OCCURRED BETWEEN STAFFORD LN. 
AND SABER LN. HOWEVER, THERE WERE SEVERAL OTHER TREES DOWN IN THE 
AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MORE CONCENTRATED TORNADIC DAMAGE,
PARTICULARLY ALONG BUCKINGHAM DRIVE PERPENDICULAR TO WHITE MARSH
BRANCH. AT THIS LOCATION ALONG BUCKINGHAM DRIVE, TREES FELL UPON 
POWER LINES, SNAPPING SEVERAL SUPPORTING UTILITY POLES.

THE TORNADO INITIALLY TOUCHED DOWN AROUND TARRAGON LN. AND TRACKED
EASTWARD OVER THE BOWIE HIGH SCHOOL ANNEX BEFORE TRACKING INTO THE
SOMERSET SUBDIVISION, WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAMAGE WAS
OBSERVED. THE TORNADO WOULD THEN LIFT JUST BEFORE REACHING
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WHITEMARSH PARK. 

KLWX WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN STERLING VA DEPICTED A TIGHT 
VELOCITY COUPLET THAT CORRESPONDED TO THE LOCATION OF THE DAMAGE 
DESCRIBED ABOVE. RESIDENTS IN THE AREA NOTED THAT THEY RECEIVED 
THE WIRELESS EMERGENCY ALERT DISSEMINATING THE TORNADO WARNING 
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE PRIOR TO THE DAMAGE OCCURRING, AND TOOK
APPROPRIATE ACTION TO REDUCE THEIR RISK OF INJURY FROM THE
TORNADO.

THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN STERLING,
THANKS THE CITY OF BOWIE AND THE PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY DEPARTMENT
OF EMERGENCY SERVICES FOR THEIR ASSISTANCE IN THIS SURVEY, ALONG 
WITH THE RESIDENTS OF PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY THAT WERE WITNESS TO 
THIS TORNADO EVENT. 

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0.........65 TO 85 MPH
EF1.........86 TO 110 MPH
EF2.........111 TO 135 MPH
EF3.........136 TO 165 MPH
EF4.........166 TO 200 MPH
EF5.........>200 MPH

$$

LEDBETTER/LEE

 

[aldie 22]

Seems to me by the looks of radar any action is going to be north and east of here sorta has that dome in the middle with stuff going around it look. That kinda sucks

[Maestrobjwa]

Nice little deluge here

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like a very low topped supercell trying to get going near Taneytown.

[WEATHER53]

Downpour from Greenbelt to Silver Spring 30-40mph on beltway entire trip.  Think I was in 3”ph rates. 

[high risk]

Some weak rotation and a slight hook on that cell just south of Bowie.....

[yoda]

Hmmm... sneaky severe tomorrow?

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...


As the initial front continues to sag on Friday, it will likely
start to be pushed along by a stronger cold front later Friday
into Saturday. Showers and a few rumbles of thunder are
possible both Friday and Saturday afternoons and evenings. Given
some of the recent rainfall totals in the early 12z guidance
late Friday into Saturday morning, flooding is starting to
become a real concern. There is still a lot of uncertainty with
exactly what happens though given ongoing MCS`s potentially
moving into the area or nearby. Lots of moving parts to take
into account. Some guidance even brings in a remnant MCV into
the region and tries to spin up a low along the stalled frontal
boundary. Guidance is really struggling to pick up on much
instability obviously given the time of day, but should this
occur at the right time (perhaps even into the day Saturday), we
could be looking at an isolated severe threat as well. Again,
lots of uncertainty here, but some guidance has a conditional
tornado threat on Saturday should that above scenario play out,
so it is something we are watching. For now, now outlook from
SPC, but may have to revisit that with the overnight update
should that trend continue. For now though, given the
antecedent conditions coupled with any slower moving, training
showers and thunderstorms, flooding/flash flooding appears to be
the primary concern. This is highlighted by WPC`s Excessive
outlooks in the D2 and D3 periods. May be looking to collaborate
some changes there if the 12z guidance continues to come in
bullish on precipitation amounts. Hoping for some more details
with the afternoon package, but keep an eye on the forecast for
any significant changes.

[Eskimo Joe]

Tomorrow into Saturday is the kind of setup that fails 9.99/10 times. But that 0.01 times it works out we get floods and tons of low budget spinny danger noodles.

[biodhokie]

I've got a golf tournament on Saturday and knowing my luck it's going to be that 0.01 time on Saturday. Probably the only time this summer where I'll beg for a torch.

[yoda]

Afternoon disco from LWX about the threat 

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Confidence is increasing in a potentially high impact heavy
rainfall event Friday night into Saturday morning. A slow-moving
cold front remains situated over the region, meanwhile a
reinforcing cold front will be pushing in from the NW.
Additionally, a potent shortwave will be sliding by overhead
during the Friday night into Saturday timeframe. This results in
almost all guidance developing a low either overhead or very
closeby. There will also be an abundance of low-level
convergence given the two frontal boundaries colliding as well.
Almost all guidance dumps heavy rainfall over some portion of
our region especially after midnight on Saturday morning. The
question still remains as to exactly where this occurs. A lot of
the uncertainty is related to exactly how the system evolves to
our northwest. Flash flooding will certainly be a concern,
especially given the antecedent conditions as a result of the
heavy rainfall over the past several days in different parts of
the region. The QPF forecast has come up greatly, and it is
anticipated that our ERO category from WPC will likely expand
and/or increase in coverage with the afternoon update.

In addition to the flooding rainfall threat, starting to grow a
bit more concerned with the severe thunderstorm threat as well.
Timing will be key with this system, and if it comes through a
bit slower into Saturday, could even have some decent CAPE to
work with. The environment will be very well-sheared with the
frontal boundaries nearby and decent upper-level support. Most
concerned with a few damaging wind gusts, and perhaps even an
isolated tornado along the boundary itself.

The majority of the rainfall should be to our south by Saturday
afternoon as the front marches south. However, given the
remaining uncertainties, going to keep some chance POPs in the
forecast for now as things can and likely will change to some
degree.

[mappy]

if that rainfall could just hold off until after softball, that'd be great.

[H2O]

2 hours ago, mappy said:

if that rainfall could just hold off until after softball, that'd be great.

Rec league brain

[Eskimo Joe]

Yea some of the CAMs are really starting to hit in on the 4"+ mark for spots. If that happens, especially in the metro areas, that's going to be a problem.

EDIT: Even the Euro has a stripe of 3" - 5" from DC up through Baltimore and over to the eastern shore.

[Kmlwx]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea some of the CAMs are really starting to hit in on the 4"+ mark for spots. If that happens, especially in the metro areas, that's going to be a problem.

EDIT: Even the Euro has a stripe of 3" - 5" from DC up through Baltimore and over to the eastern shore.

Particularly if the jackpots are in areas that have recently been deluged.