Eskimo Joe Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Bit of clearing in WV resulting in SBCAPE of ~500j/kg and supercell composite starting to nose up. Not going to take a lot of sun today to stir things up. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 For those of you watching from home with GR radar, here's the experimental NOAA CIMSS placefile for estimating the probability of a storm/cluster/line producing severe weather: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/NOAACIMSS_PROBSEVERE More info including documentation: https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/training/training.html#psv2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 24 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Bit of clearing in WV resulting in SBCAPE of ~500j/kg and supercell composite starting to nose up. Not going to take a lot of sun today to stir things up. Seems like we will have very little clearing east of the blue ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1020 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will approach the area later today, then cross the area tonight. High pressure will build in Friday into Saturday. A cold front and wave of low pressure are expected to move over the area Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure is expected to make another brief return early next week before unsettled weather returns by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The focus of the near term will be on the potential for severe thunderstorms with the primary threat being damaging winds and the potential for an isolated tornado and large hail. The main uncertainty for this event will be how much instability is realized, and if it is rooted within the boundary layer. 12Z CAMs continue to show an upward trend in potential instability this afternoon/evening along and east of I-81. If this instability comes to fruition, given the ample shear in place and height falls along the trough/cold front, strong to severe thunderstorms could be more widespread in nature. The LLJ will be pumping Gulf Moisture into the area at 55-70 kts at 850 mb and 40-60 kts at 925 mb. There is the potential for cellular storms ahead/along the cold front before they congeal into a linear feature that may include the potential for mesovorticies along the leading edge. Again, this all depends on if modeled instability is realized. Previous discussion follows... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Another GR placefile. This one shows the potential for CG: https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/NOAACIMSS_PLTG_GOES-East_CONUS_LOOP Typically, if a cell/line/cluster get 50% potential, the ERH offices seem to issue an SPS for it. Good for outdoor activity planning, etc. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 1 hour ago, high risk said: It's worth noting that the HRRR has trended this morning towards the NAM Nest idea of a later show for those of us in central MD This isn't ideal, as while temps won't be plummeting after sunset, we need every degree of heating we can get, given that we're looking at very limited instability even at peak heating. Areas further west and north look to have a better shot at SVR due to more favorable timing, unless some scattered cells form out ahead of the primary line or if the line advances further to the southeast earlier. Might just be me, but it seems like the line is forming and trucking a bit faster than what's been progged on the HRRR and some of the other CAMs. Timing might now be too much of an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 PBZ issuing a tornado warning NW PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: PBZ issuing a tornado warning NW PA. Storm moving NE at 60 mph ETA: now east motion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Storm moving NE at 60 mph ETA: now east motion Several cells firing in central WV which would probably be our action. Visible satellite starting to show breaks in the clouds east of I-81. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Last night I was watching the Ryan Hall livestream and he explained that since this system has so much shear, It didn't take much to kick off strong, severe storms. THere were a lot of tornado warned cells last night on the pre-front line of storms, and then more in the actual frontal passage. I think there was even one or two areas which had different tornado warned cells pass over about an hour apart. I am definitely not a knowledgeable as many of you on this, but just wanted to pass that along. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 I'd imagine we will see an MCD for our region in the next hour or so from SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1157 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Indiana County in west central Pennsylvania... Jefferson County in west central Pennsylvania... Southeastern Armstrong County in west central Pennsylvania... Southeastern Clarion County in west central Pennsylvania... * Until 1245 PM EDT. * At 1156 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 8 miles north of New Bethlehem to 12 miles west of Punxsutawney to 8 miles west of Indiana, moving northeast at 70 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Trees snapped and uprooted. Power outages. * Locations impacted include... Punxsutawney, Brookville, Reynoldsville, Brockway, New Bethlehem, Sykesville, Falls Creek, Rural Valley, West Lebanon, Big Run, Dayton, and Summerville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms likely are producing very strong wind gusts. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH. && LAT...LON 4120 7877 4113 7880 4081 7881 4054 7940 4087 7928 4115 7936 4138 7897 4136 7896 4126 7874 4123 7874 4123 7871 4120 7871 TIME...MOT...LOC 1556Z 236DEG 60KT 4112 7927 4091 7922 4065 7931 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Can see some breaks of sunshine here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Sounds like maybe a tornado watch coming later for N MD into C PA per MCD 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 70/61 skies definitely brightening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Sounds like maybe a tornado watch coming later for N MD into C PA per MCD Outline of the meso is blue, so I'm leaning severe t'storm: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2022/md0376.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Outline of the meso is blue, so I'm leaning severe t'storm: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2022/md0376.html True... I was going by last paragraph Mesoscale Discussion 0376 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Areas affected...Western/central Pennsylvania into western Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 311607Z - 311730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage is possible early this afternoon as storm develop in western Pennsylvania/Maryland. Storm intensity is expected to increase later this afternoon into central/eastern Pennsylvania and adjacent areas of Maryland. Trends will continue to be monitored for a watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Cloud cover has continued to clear across West Virginia into western Pennsylvania as mid-level dry air overspreads the area. Though MLCAPE values remain below 300 J/kg, surface heating has brought temperatures in southwestern Pennsylvania into the upper 60s F. Low-level lapse rates are likely steepened enough to support a risk for damaging wind gusts given 50-60 kts of wind within the lowest 2 km on regional VAD winds. Into central Pennsylvania, more time will be require to destabilize as cloud cover has kept temperatures in the mid/upper 50s F. However, with the decreasing cloud cover expected, an increasing severe risk will probably occur by mid-afternoon. Southerly winds should advect increasing moisture into the area as well. Limited buoyancy and veered surface winds in western Pennsylvania will limit the tornado risk with early activity. Surface winds will remain more backed in central/eastern Pennsylvania along with greater 850 mb wind speeds. The greater tornado threat is likely to exist farther east and later this afternoon. ..Wendt/Hart.. 03/31/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Can see some breaks of sunshine hereI’ve been watching the high level clouds march east over the last hour on satellite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Plus with PBZ issuing it's 3rd TW in the past 20 minutes... I'm just guessing they would go TOR... but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 DY1 Enhanced Risk for wind coming out. 5% TOR will be expanded. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 SPC has gone ENH from N VA into PA on 1630z OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: SPC has gone ENH from N VA into PA on 1630z OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 30% wind contour added in ENH risk region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND...AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today from parts of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic region and Hudson Valley. ...VA into NY... Broad and strong southwesterly flow aloft is present today across much of the eastern US, with a strong shortwave trough moving across the upper OH Valley. Breaks in the clouds are resulting in pockets of heating across this area, which should yield at least marginal afternoon CAPE values. Storms have begun to strengthen along a pre-frontal axis over western PA. Model consensus shows multiple corridors of strengthening low-level winds through the day, which will help to enhance convergence and lead to more widespread intensifying thunderstorms by mid-afternoon. These fast-moving storms will pose a risk of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Have added an ENH risk area for this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Temps spiking pretty good. IAD up to 72...FDK up to 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 72.5 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Had our first non filtered sun shine through. Already seeing more clearing sitting on the screened in porch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Cell firing in Garrett County, MD looks like it wants to become interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 I'm on my lunch break at work and instead of eating lunch I'm refreshing kamala waiting for my MCD lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now