2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[Kmlwx]

14z HRRR predicts initiation in the higher elevations/Blue Ridge area around 3pm with a cluster then growing upscale in NoVA and Central Maryland in the hours following. The lines/cluster pushes east of the bay on that model by 0z. Simulated echo tops get to around 40-50kft as well. Not too bad on that run! 

[Eskimo Joe]

57 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

14z HRRR predicts initiation in the higher elevations/Blue Ridge area around 3pm with a cluster then growing upscale in NoVA and Central Maryland in the hours following. The lines/cluster pushes east of the bay on that model by 0z. Simulated echo tops get to around 40-50kft as well. Not too bad on that run! 

CAMS this morning has everyone socked in with clouds, but it's mostly sunny across the region. As they're getting a better handle on current conditions, they're pumping a better line out.

[AlexD1990]

MCD out

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[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, alexderiemer said:

MCD out

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Yup. 80% chance for a blue box today:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1323.html

[MN Transplant]

Flash Flood Watch for the DC/Balt corridor 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Flash Flood Watch for the DC/Balt corridor 

Been up since this morning. It's been pretty dry recently and the storm motion today seems progressive. Guess it's more for the urbanized watersheds.

[Kmlwx]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Been up since this morning. It's been pretty dry recently and the storm motion today seems progressive. Guess it's more for the urbanized watersheds.

FFG is like 1.5-2" for 1 hour in DC proper. A good complex of storms could do that I guess. Elsewhere is 2-3 inches. 

[North Balti Zen]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

CAMS this morning has everyone socked in with clouds, but it's mostly sunny across the region. As they're getting a better handle on current conditions, they're pumping a better line out.

for once it was actually genuinely sunny and heated things up

[AmericanWxFreak]

Looks like some stuff initiating out near Martinsburg WV 

[yoda]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9pm up for BR and eastward

[Kmlwx]

Radar pretty weak sauce so far. But some of the CAMs liked more around the 0z timeframe. 

[Kmlwx]

The long cell in the area (between Hagerstown and Martinsburg) appears to be right along the surface trough that WPC analyzed out that way in the last update. Runs tilting NE to SW to the west of the more populated areas. 

[yoda]

Radarscope is tagging the Frederick/Washington County warned cell as having max hail of 2.5"

[Kmlwx]

Everything north for the time being. Radar very, very quiet locally. 

[yoda]

37 minutes ago, yoda said:

Radarscope is tagging the Frederick/Washington County warned cell as having max hail of 2.5"

3.25" just over the border now in Adams County PA

[Eskimo Joe]

Weird line forming along Mason-Dixon. Can hear the occasional thunder from that at the Lowe's in Westminster.

[yoda]

Tor possible tag on the newly warned cell out in Frederick/Jefferson counties moving SE

[Eskimo Joe]

TOR possible tag on the SVR for Frederick County, MD

[yoda]

Looks like it's trying a small hook near Antietam 

[Kmlwx]

Outflow visible in the Brunswick area and then arcing back towards the MoCo/Frederick County line. See if this boundary can trigger some activity closer to the actual city. 

[Kmlwx]

Everything kind of congealed into that one big complex. It's been tough to get them to propagate to the south at all so far. Lots of easterly movement in the storm motions. Looks like outflow from earlier has moved all the way to Damascus, Clarksburg, Comus, back to Point of Rocks. Another boundary looks like it's in extreme northern Loudoun County. 

[osfan24]

That line out west keeps trying to come down 70 but keeps running into a wall as it tries to approach the metro areas.

[Kmlwx]

Little shower developing along the Potomac near Great Falls. Probably will be just enough to stabilize me as it passes over  

[poolz1]

Absolutely torrential. Well over an inch so far I would guess. Minimal wind but tons of thunder and lightning.

[poolz1]

Absolutely torrential. Well over an inch so far I would guess. Minimal wind but tons of thunder and lightning.

[Kmlwx]

Pretty quick uptick in lightning on that MoCo/Fairfax/Potomac cell. That may have some legs to it, actually! 

[Eskimo Joe]

10 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Pretty quick uptick in lightning on that MoCo/Fairfax/Potomac cell. That may have some legs to it, actually! 

Yea tops are going up and it's creeping out ahead of the main line. Could see it getting warned shortly.

[Kmlwx]

Is that a potential downburst signature on that cell now? Looks like all the TDWRs and the LWX radar are seeing winds moving away from each other. 

[midatlanticweather]

29 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Everything kind of congealed into that one big complex. It's been tough to get them to propagate to the south at all so far. Lots of easterly movement in the storm motions. Looks like outflow from earlier has moved all the way to Damascus, Clarksburg, Comus, back to Point of Rocks. Another boundary looks like it's in extreme northern Loudoun County. 

Here is that boundary in Loudoun 

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea tops are going up and it's creeping out ahead of the main line. Could see it getting warned shortly.

Warned. Really impressive cell thus far. Already seeing some outflow on it - hoping it doesn't just collapse. Warning has a decent trajectory for MBY