2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[yoda]

I'd watch that new storm just east of Standardsville that is STWarned...

[Eskimo Joe]

29 minutes ago, yoda said:

Not sure I am following this twitter exchange... can I get some help?

IMO, Cappucci just seems to stir the pot when it comes to NWS warning operations. He's gone on about the size of storm based warnings, the size of watch boxes, the color of mesoscale discussion areas on SPC website and other seemingly trivial things. I totally understand that you can question things, but he seems to give back handed compliments pretty regularly.

[southmdwatcher]

Central PA supercell with the tornado warning has a BWER

[yoda]

Probably wont be much... but watching the storms in WV

[Kmlwx]

28 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

IMO, Cappucci just seems to stir the pot when it comes to NWS warning operations. He's gone on about the size of storm based warnings, the size of watch boxes, the color of mesoscale discussion areas on SPC website and other seemingly trivial things. I totally understand that you can question things, but he seems to give back handed compliments pretty regularly.

He also has a very loyal group of followers that will defend him to no end. I definitely recall Cappucci blocking up a turn lane of a road near Annapolis during a tornado. It's one thing to be enthusiastic...but he also doesn't seem to have the ability to often admit when he's wrong. I think his enthusiasm is great, and I'm genuinely happy for him for the things he's accomplished. But he should certainly occasionally take a step back and remember that he's not the authority on weather, and the school he went to doesn't mean he's better than another forecaster/met. He certainly is entitled to opinions...but he also needs to remember that because of his current position, his opinions are read by A LOT of laypeople who will then parrot his ideas back to friends, family, coworkers etc. 

I personally think some of his comments have caused some social media users to have less faith in NWS products and the website. That's not constructive. 

 

[yoda]

10 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said:

Central PA supercell with the tornado warning has a BWER

That sup has more of a S component on it now compared to an hour ago

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, yoda said:

That sup has more of a S component on it now compared to an hour ago

 

20 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said:

Central PA supercell with the tornado warning has a BWER

Just finished washing a fire truck in New Windsor and it has the deep summer soup feel. While we're "stable" here, i wonder if that cluster near Harrisburg develops a cold pool or something and can overcome whatever cap we have here. The CAMS today definitely have been wonky so may the Baltimore area gets to bust in favor of some relief tonight?

[yoda]

SLGT risk for everyone on the 0100z SPC OTLK... 2/15/15

[Round Hill WX]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

IMO, Cappucci just seems to stir the pot when it comes to NWS warning operations. He's gone on about the size of storm based warnings, the size of watch boxes, the color of mesoscale discussion areas on SPC website and other seemingly trivial things. I totally understand that you can question things, but he seems to give back handed compliments pretty regularly.

Matt is about one thing…himself. Right or wrong, he’s playing the game to make a name for himself. 

[NorthArlington101]

IMO, Cappucci just seems to stir the pot when it comes to NWS warning operations. He's gone on about the size of storm based warnings, the size of watch boxes, the color of mesoscale discussion areas on SPC website and other seemingly trivial things. I totally understand that you can question things, but he seems to give back handed compliments pretty regularly.

The only NWS critique I’d really strongly agree with is the over-warning of thunderstorms locally. Every other storm I get here is “severe,” but maybe one storm a year meets that criteria. I care about the weather and even I no longer take those warnings seriously.

[Kmlwx]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The only NWS critique I’d really strongly agree with is the over-warning of thunderstorms locally. Every other storm I get here is “severe,” but maybe one storm a year meets that criteria. I care about the weather and even I no longer take those warnings seriously.

Certainly agree in terms of laypeople. Lucky for us we are "experienced" weather weenies and know how to read a radar map (or at least semi understand). I've sent pictures of a radar map to friends with no caption and they just say things like "I don't even know what the colors mean" - I'm always shocked...like in 30 years you've never seen a TV weather map of radar? 

[MN Transplant]

42 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The only NWS critique I’d really strongly agree with is the over-warning of thunderstorms locally. Every other storm I get here is “severe,” but maybe one storm a year meets that criteria. I care about the weather and even I no longer take those warnings seriously.

The big problem here is that we have a ton of densely-treed neighborhoods.  It doesn't even take a severe-level storm to cause damage, especially to old and dying trees.  So, we may scoff at some of the warnings, but I bet a lot of them are verifying via damage reports.

[Stormfly]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The only NWS critique I’d really strongly agree with is the over-warning of thunderstorms locally. Every other storm I get here is “severe,” but maybe one storm a year meets that criteria. I care about the weather and even I no longer take those warnings seriously.

We see the same thing here as well and have experienced 'meh' only to hear the box call siren at our local VFC and find that a tree has come down into someone's home not 1km from ours!  So isolated but if you're under it can be hell.

[yoda]

still some big storms today down south

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
544 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

VAC177-172230-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0164.000000T0000Z-220617T2230Z/
Spotsylvania VA-
544 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY...

At 544 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles north of
Bumpass, or 12 miles east of Mineral, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Partlow, Gatewood and Brokenburg.

[yoda]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
601 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southern St. Marys County in southern Maryland...

* Until 645 PM EDT.

* At 600 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Saint
  Clements Bay, moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...A wind gust to 67 mph was measured at Cobb Point Buoy.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Lexington Park, Piney Point, Tall Timbers, Saint Inigoes Creek,
  Saint Marys City, Saint George Island, Saint Clements Bay, Saint
  Marys River, White Point Beach, California, Abell, Valley Lee,
  Scotland, Great Mills, Avenue, Drayden, Saint Inigoes, Park Hall,
  Oakley and Dameron.

[poolz1]

Bro In law caught this beast of a bolt in Fenwick yesterday.  Too bad the neighbor's roof blocks part of the view but a pretty wild shot nonetheless. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, poolz1 said:

Bro In law caught this beast of a bolt in Fenwick yesterday.  Too bad the neighbor's roof blocks part of the view but a pretty wild shot nonetheless. 

 

 

 

 

 

Wooooooowee!!! Heck yeah!! Now I'm guessing the camera makes the bolt look thicker? Or did it actually look like that? Cause' that's a full-on videogame Thunderbolt right there, lol

[NorthArlington101]

The big problem here is that we have a ton of densely-treed neighborhoods.  It doesn't even take a severe-level storm to cause damage, especially to old and dying trees.  So, we may scoff at some of the warnings, but I bet a lot of them are verifying via damage reports.

I agree in principle - what I guess I’d then suggest is that Severe Thunderstorm Warnings scale like Winter Storm Warnings/Advisory’s based on the relative severity/hazards posed. If a 40mph storm is severe and dangerous in this area, cool, just don’t lie in the warning text. I suppose laypeople hardly read the text though anyway.

[Vice-Regent]

That is how we roll on the East Coast/Mid-Atlantic. High precipitable water content and thicc CG strikes. A monster hailer rolled through here yesterday but the core missed by a mere quarter mile.

[SnowenOutThere]

[North Balti Zen]

 

[Kmlwx]

I'm watching tomorrow with interest so far. 

[mappy]

Wooo storms!

[yoda]

48 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I'm watching tomorrow with interest so far. 

So Level 2 excitement?

[Kmlwx]

Sim reflectivity has looked pretty consistently good on the CAMs. The one issue may be that some of us get missed to the west on a few models. We'll see how it looks tomorrow AM. I think it'll be a solid SLGT day. 

[jewell2188]

22 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Sim reflectivity has looked pretty consistently good on the CAMs. The one issue may be that some of us get missed to the west on a few models. We'll see how it looks tomorrow AM. I think it'll be a solid SLGT day. 

Is the flood threat more of a concern versus the severe ?

[09-10 analogy]

Looking forward to a good multiple-round day tomorrow, with strong winds with the first go and plenty of CG with both. I'll prolly be disappointed, but one can always hope. If we have a "peak" thunderstorm season around here, we're probably in it now. 

[WeatherShak]

So Level 2 excitement?

I was going to suggest his Meh-Meter is somewhere around a 2 — with a 10 being the highest level of disinterest.

[Kmlwx]

Seems a good bet a good chunk of the area will see storms tomorrow. Intensity TBD. These past few days have been incredible from a comfort standpoint. 

[mappy]

with 3 softball games a week, i could use a rainout tomorrow for a break hahaha. im too old to be playing so often