2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[Kmlwx]

8 minutes ago, George BM said:

Just noticed that from radarscope wondering whether it was a glitch. So you heard thunder from them?

Hearing LOUD thunder within the past 20 mins in Colesville, MD. Maybe anvil crawlers? 

[aldie 22]

Pretty interesting radar evolution looked like a west to east then it just decided to say nope south I go....worked out for here just east of Aldie thank goodness lots of close lightning strikes and loud thunder

[AmericanWxFreak]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Uh, watch box is canceled? 

Seems reasonable. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

Meso signature on the Manassas cell on RS

[high risk]

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Hearing LOUD thunder within the past 20 mins in Colesville, MD. Maybe anvil crawlers? 

     Definitely electrified anvil activity.     You can see very slight reflectivity in the areas where the strikes occurred.

[high risk]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Uh, watch box is canceled? 

         I'm as skeptical as you are about round 2, especially given model trends, but I'm still surprised that they did this.   The recent MD talked about the threat later this evening, but I'm guessing that the evening shift came on at SPC and decided that the threat isn't enough to keep the watch up.   

[PWC Split]

Some hail in this cell passing through Haymarket.

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, high risk said:

         I'm as skeptical as you are about round 2, especially given model trends, but I'm still surprised that they did this.   The recent MD talked about the threat later this evening, but I'm guessing that the evening shift came on at SPC and decided that the threat isn't enough to keep the watch up.   

SPC mesoanalysis update have -100 CIN over us. We're just too stable.

[Kmlwx]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

SPC mesoanalysis update have -100 CIN over us. We're just too stable.

Yup - even during the afternoon sunshine/heat there was CIN over areas east of the Potomac. Even more obvious when the current VA cells couldn't make it eastward. If they can't get into the area at 5:30pm, they very likely won't be able to at midnight (or later tonight in general) unless there is a good source of forcing to overcome the negative factors. 

[yoda]

45 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Uh, watch box is canceled? 

Its still up on the NWS LWX website though

[Eskimo Joe]

Orange County, VA cell looks really beefy. Wouldn't shock me if it gets a TOR. 

[NorthArlington101]

Orange County, VA cell looks really beefy. Wouldn't shock me if it gets a TOR. 

TOR issued - looks decent on radar.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

TOR issued - looks decent on radar.

Looks even better on the latest frame. Damn. 

[NorthArlington101]

Looks even better on the latest frame. Damn. 

It’s broad and there still but not as impressive now - hook less apparent on radar.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s broad and there still but not as impressive now - hook less apparent on radar.

Tops have gone down by about 20kft and a new cell is popping up to the southwest. Perhaps it went outflow dominant and we're seeing a tremendous wet microburst. I'll bet there is a shelf cloud to end all shelf clouds ongoing.

[NorthArlington101]

Tops have gone down by about 20kft and a new cell is popping up to the southwest. Perhaps it went outflow dominant and we're seeing a tremendous wet microburst. I'll bet there is a shelf cloud to end all shelf clouds ongoing.

Peter Forister has been posting great stuff on Twitter:

[NorthArlington101]

Second warning out… almost looks like one mega supercell with a couple areas of rotation embedded.

[NorthArlington101]

Rotation over I-64 looks pretty legit. Wish I was still in Charlottesville, would be a solid chasing op.

[yoda]

40 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Orange County, VA cell looks really beefy. Wouldn't shock me if it gets a TOR. 

Was warned earlier with destructive wording in its STW

[TSG]

Radar looking really bad over 64 right now. Hook echo now clearly visible. Lots of rotation..

[Eskimo Joe]

Monster supercell for these parts. Virginia really putting a show on today. Even got a public report of a funnel cloud 1 WSW Louisa, VA.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, TSG said:

Radar looking really bad over 64 right now. Hook echo now clearly visible. Lots of rotation..

Think another TW might be needed behind it south of Gordonsville. Real nasty storm. If this was ~80 miles north would be the severe wx day of the season.

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Think another TW might be needed behind it south of Gordonsville. Real nasty storm. If this was ~80 miles north would be the severe wx day of the season.

We just suck at weather. It's that simple. It's always something.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We just suck at weather. It's that simple. It's always something.

Storm is putting up 400+ strikes/min according to the lightning maps. Gotta be a strobe light on I-64 between Cville and RIC.

[osfan24]

2 hours ago, high risk said:

Several recent lightning strikes over Howard/PG Counties, well removed from he precip.

That was wild. I was about to take my daughter to swim practice and it actually got cancelled because of the lightning and thunder. Storm was barely in the same state as me.

[yoda]

This was from an hour ago... don't see this everyday

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
637 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Madison County in northwestern Virginia...
  Southwestern Orange County in central Virginia...

* Until 715 PM EDT.

* At 634 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Orange,
  moving southeast at 15 mph.

  THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR Somerset, Orange and Montpellier
Station.

  HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
  Orange, Gordonsville, Thornhill, Madison Mills, Montford, Lahore,
  Old Somerset, Montpelier Station, Madison Run and Somerset.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3814 7801 3814 7805 3815 7809 3815 7810
      3814 7812 3814 7816 3813 7818 3818 7829
      3831 7821 3820 7786 3812 7796 3812 7798
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 301DEG 13KT 3821 7818

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

[yoda]

Not sure I am following this twitter exchange... can I get some help?

 

[NorthArlington101]

[NorthArlington101]

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

Not sure I am following this twitter exchange... can I get some help?

 

I think they are saying a couple things...

1. Radar dead zone. Tough to see what's going on. This for me isn't a reason not to issue a warning when a storm looks this threatening.
2. I think they are referring to sidelobe contamination when they are talking about lack of a couplet on DBZ. Not sure I agree with that qualm either, storm has repeatedly shown a hook and again, the radar isn't super reliable. And we've got photos of wall clouds on Twitter...

The SBCIN stuff is out of my comfort zone to even begin to talk about but this is what it means apparently:

SBLI (Surface Based Lifted Index & Convective Inhibition) is the Lifted Index at 500-mb, based on the surface parcel, and the convective inhibition for the same parcel. These fields are meant to identify areas of surface-based CAPE and minimal convective inhibition, which suggests some threat for surface-based thunderstorms.

[Kmlwx]

10 minutes ago, yoda said:

Not sure I am following this twitter exchange... can I get some help?

Have seen Cappucci say negative things about NWS, NWS website etc like 3-5 times in the past week or two. I have mixed feelings about Cappucci as a whole. He seems like an enthusiastic guy in the field these days, though.