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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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poolz1
poolz1

Bro In law caught this beast of a bolt in Fenwick yesterday.  Too bad the neighbor's roof blocks part of the view but a pretty wild shot nonetheless.           

poolz1
poolz1

Lots of thunder, lightning and heavy rain.  No wind hardly at all.  Perfect rainbow storm with the sun breaking out as the clouds cleared to the west. Saw the rainbow and told my 12 yo daughter to tak

Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I was stuck in a meeting and couldn't get outside, but that Loudoun cell was looking pretty beastly from inside on approach. Thankful that the worst stayed just north of me

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high risk

high risk

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A couple of quick thoughts about Wednesday night:     We're definitely going to have an interesting convective overnight, as the strong wave lowers heights across the region and increases the shear.      If this were occurring during the day, we'd likely have a good shot at some severe, but the after dark arrival of the main forcing reduces that potential.     Right now, it looks like the best shear will arrive after the main round of convection, but if we can overlap storms with the improved shear, a few damaging wind gusts or an isolated tornado probably can't be ruled out.    For flash flooding potential, the rapidly increasing PW values certainly make it a possibility - my initial thought is that overall dry ground and quick movement of the system will likely limit the flash flooding potential, but it's certainly on the table, especially if there is some lead convection during the late afternoon hours before the main show later at night.

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high risk

high risk

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11 hours ago, high risk said:

A couple of quick thoughts about Wednesday night:     We're definitely going to have an interesting convective overnight, as the strong wave lowers heights across the region and increases the shear.      If this were occurring during the day, we'd likely have a good shot at some severe, but the after dark arrival of the main forcing reduces that potential.     Right now, it looks like the best shear will arrive after the main round of convection, but if we can overlap storms with the improved shear, a few damaging wind gusts or an isolated tornado probably can't be ruled out.    For flash flooding potential, the rapidly increasing PW values certainly make it a possibility - my initial thought is that overall dry ground and quick movement of the system will likely limit the flash flooding potential, but it's certainly on the table, especially if there is some lead convection during the late afternoon hours before the main show later at night.

       Timing looks a bit different on the evening guidance.     Looks like the main batch of convection will occur more in the 7pm - midnight period.     We'll have a bit more instability to work with, but wind profiles look very meh.   So widespread severe seems unlikely, but perhaps the flash flooding potential is a bit higher.    The bigger question is what happens ahead of the cold front in the early morning hours.    Wind profiles will strengthen significantly, and while instability won't be impressive, there might be just enough to favorably interact with the shear.    This is probably our better chance for SVR, although the CAMs don't have a lot of storms for that time - the better chance seems to be in northern MD.

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high risk

high risk

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  The late afternoon / evening seemed to always have limited potential here.    Shear is weak, and CAPE is modest;   a small amount of downdraft CAPE did admittedly keep the door open for a few wind gusts (and it's probably still open), but it wasn't a strong likelihood.

    I'm still watching the period much later tonight along the cold front.    The HRRR wants to sweep a nice line through northern and perhaps north-central MD.   CAPE will be limited due to time of day, but the shear will be much improved.      The HRRR is definitely more aggressive than other CAMs with this feature, so we'll see how it plays out.

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_fh12-12.thumb.gif.644be2ee9c5f4baed8edf8c9ec826724.gif 

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high risk

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I still don't understand how we ended up with a few modest supercells in the area.     The shear on the 00Z IAD sounding is nothing of note.    And the Howard County rotation suddenly emerged at the back edge of the complex that brought torrential rain to that corridor.     That cell was definitely not ingesting high theta-e air.

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

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Just now, high risk said:

I still don't understand how we ended up with a few modest supercells in the area.     The shear on the 00Z IAD sounding is nothing of note.    And the Howard County rotation suddenly emerged at the back edge of the complex that brought torrential rain to that corridor.     That cell was definitely not ingesting high theta-e air.

/Mid Atlantic Severe

In all honesty, if you take a look at the 0.5 degree reflectivity and velocity in the hour leading up to this event, you'll notice two or three subtle boundaries across Charles, Montgomery, Howard, and Calvert counties. Might have been enough to touch things off tonight.

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high risk

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19 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

//time sensitive//

Check out the left moving low topped supercell in Garrett County going clank clank into the Laurel Highlands.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Virginia-comp_radar-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

        That's a beaut!    As I mentioned a bunch of posts back, the shear closer to the shortwave and sfc low is way stronger than what we currently have, and hat shear is going to overspread our area later tonight.    The HRRR thinks that instability will fall off too much to sustain the convection and take advantage of the shear, unless you're further north, but I wouldn't be surprised if there are several warnings in the LWX CWA after midnight.

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