Kmlwx Posted May 27, 2022 Author Share Posted May 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, WeatherShak said: I didn’t know you un-meh’d from earlier and yesterday… I un-mehed as the line was rolling in earlier. Didn't hit severe here - and no damage IMBY - but it was a nice storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 SPC mesoanalysis shows belt of 40-60kt shear from I-66 down to CHO coinciding with SBCAPE recovering. Wouldn't shock me if we get a lower end severe thunderstorm watch later today. I'm back up to 71 degrees again at home so we are recovering this airmass somewhat even up in Baltimore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Getting peaks of sun in Purcellville. Air feels thick with temps staying in the low 70s. Better clearing is heading this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Cell near RNK spinning up pretty quickly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 27, 2022 Author Share Posted May 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: SPC mesoanalysis shows belt of 40-60kt shear from I-66 down to CHO coinciding with SBCAPE recovering. Wouldn't shock me if we get a lower end severe thunderstorm watch later today. I'm back up to 71 degrees again at home so we are recovering this airmass somewhat even up in Baltimore. Have gone form 65 or 66 back up to 69 now in Colesville. Getting little hints of sunshine now. Though it's not like high noon anymore. Not sure how much heating the sun will provide late in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Mesoscale Discussion 0941 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022 Areas affected...Central NC into central/eastern VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272026Z - 272230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two will be possible with renewed storm development into early evening. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Convection continues to gradually increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon across parts of central NC into VA, near a weakly confluent surface trough, with a few cells occasionally showing weak midlevel rotation. This trend is expected to continue into early evening, as a midlevel cyclone approaches the region from the west. Increasing midlevel flow and deep-layer shear (as noted on recent VWPs from KFCX and KRAX) will continue to support some potential for organized storms, including the potential for stronger clusters and/or a few marginal supercells. Instability is not particularly strong, but MLCAPE of 750-1500 J/kg will support some severe potential, with locally damaging wind gusts the most likely threat, though marginally severe hail and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any sustained supercell into early evening. Watch issuance is possible across this area, depending on short-term observational and guidance trends regarding a sufficiently widespread severe threat. ..Dean/Thompson.. 05/27/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA 445 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Eastern Roanoke County in west central Virginia... South central Rockbridge County in west central Virginia... The City of Roanoke in west central Virginia... Northern Bedford County in south central Virginia... Southeastern Botetourt County in west central Virginia... * Until 530 PM EDT. * At 444 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Laymantown, or near Troutville, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Roanoke... Vinton... Buchanan... Glasgow... Troutville... Stewartsville... and Montvale. This includes The following Location Roanoke Regional Airport. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. For your safety, move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Stay away from windows. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 I'm thinking we have a solid chance at round two down this way. Sun is poking out and the air feels thick. We're up to 75/66 after dropping to 66/63 around 10:30am this morning during the heavy stuff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Latest SPC mesoanalysis has Cville back over 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE, with the 2000 line not far off. That seems like enough to work with. MLCAPE not nearly as robust, but it is changing quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Man, that cell south of Bedford looks like it is trying to spin up.. we will see. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidjd1994 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Sun peaking through in Bel Air . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 This looks like something! SW VA - Just noting the supercell look on these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Man, that cell south of Bedford looks like it is trying to spin up.. we will see. Not good. LYH storm warned for 60mph winds and hail to half dollar size and tor possible tag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: This looks like something! SW VA - Just noting the supercell look on these storms. That’s a big time storm. The one to the north of it is rotating too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Quote Increasing midlevel flow and deep-layer shear (as noted on recent VWPs from KFCX and KRAX) will continue to support some potential for organized storms, including the potential for stronger clusters and/or a few marginal supercells. ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 That’s a big time storm. The one to the north of it is rotating too.They are mid-Atlantic rotating. But rotating nevertheless. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Haven't seen a STF like this before Short Term Forecast National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 537 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 VAZ036-272230- Nelson- 537 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 .NOW... At 533 PM EDT, two severe thunderstorms were moving northeast through Amherst County at 45 mph. These storms should move into Nelson County around 600 PM. Residents and visitors in Nelson County should prepare to take cover in the upcoming hour. Be prepared for the likelihood of wind gusts to 60 MPH and large hail. Locations impacted include... Shipman, Schuyler, Wintergreen, Nellysford, Arrington, Lovingston, Bryant, Piney River, Tye River, Allens Creek, Roseland, Tyro, Rockfish, Buffalo Springs, Greenfield, Norwood, Five Forks, Jonesboro, Wingina and Gladstone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Watch just hoisted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 27, 2022 Author Share Posted May 27, 2022 Watch to the south of me boooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: SPC mesoanalysis shows belt of 40-60kt shear from I-66 down to CHO coinciding with SBCAPE recovering. Wouldn't shock me if we get a lower end severe thunderstorm watch later today. I'm back up to 71 degrees again at home so we are recovering this airmass somewhat even up in Baltimore. You win again good sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Just now, Kmlwx said: Watch to the south of me boooooo You meh'd your way out of the watch, sorry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 27, 2022 Author Share Posted May 27, 2022 However...using the watch box rather than county outline, the northern line of the watch is literally walking distance from MBY. So I will just say I'm impacted. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 279 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 545 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Southern Maryland East-central North Carolina Central to eastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 545 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A few discrete cells with transient supercell structures should persist for a few hours as they spread northeast, mainly across portions of Virginia. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles northwest of Washington DC to 10 miles west southwest of Goldsboro NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 TW up from RNK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Just now, yoda said: TW up from RNK BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA 551 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Appomattox County in central Virginia... Northeastern Campbell County in central Virginia... Southeastern Amherst County in central Virginia... The southeastern portion of City of Lynchburg in central Virginia... * Until 615 PM EDT. * At 550 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Bocock, or near Rustburg, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Lynchburg... Appomattox... Concord... Rustburg... Appomattox National Historic Park... Riverville... and Stonewall. This includes The following Locations Liberty University and Lynchburg Airport. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This Tornado Warning replaces the Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued for the same area. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 27, 2022 Author Share Posted May 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: However...using the watch box rather than county outline, the northern line of the watch is literally walking distance from MBY. So I will just say I'm impacted. It's 0.4 miles from me. I'm contacting SPC to have them revise the outline to be a half mile north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: It's 0.4 miles from me. I'm contacting SPC to have them revise the outline to be a half mile north. Sorry... had to since it reminded me if this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 STW for Nelson County and city of Waynesboro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 27, 2022 Author Share Posted May 27, 2022 In all seriousness, I think the watch is well drawn. Will be curious to see how the storms behave as they come more north into the more stable airmass (though there is SOME CAPE). Charles County, MD and areas like Culpeper could be rocking! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 27, 2022 Author Share Posted May 27, 2022 I am watching (for MBY purely) the activity between around Staunton up to like Broadway, VA. That seems like the part of the line that may come through my area...if that stays anemic I think I'm done for the day with severe. I do think DC proper has a shot. I'd be watching closely if I lived in Spotsylvania/Stafford or lower southern Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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