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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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poolz1
poolz1

Bro In law caught this beast of a bolt in Fenwick yesterday.  Too bad the neighbor's roof blocks part of the view but a pretty wild shot nonetheless.           

poolz1
poolz1

Lots of thunder, lightning and heavy rain.  No wind hardly at all.  Perfect rainbow storm with the sun breaking out as the clouds cleared to the west. Saw the rainbow and told my 12 yo daughter to tak

Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I was stuck in a meeting and couldn't get outside, but that Loudoun cell was looking pretty beastly from inside on approach. Thankful that the worst stayed just north of me

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

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12 HRRR (still running now) really ramps us this early line and plows it through the area as scheduled. Should leave a decent amount of time for the airmass to recover/destabilize. Rare two round severe day seems more and more likely...though second batch I'd venture a guess won't be as severe. 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
906 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Eastern Nelson County in central Virginia...
  The City of Charlottesville in central Virginia...
  Albemarle County in central Virginia...

* Until 945 AM EDT.

* At 905 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from 6 miles south of Afton to near Spout Spring, moving
  northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Charlottesville, Crozet, Shipman, Schuyler, Free Union,
  Westmoreland, Hollymead, Nellysford, Ivy, Arrington, Scottsville,
  Esmont, Lovingston, Allens Creek, North Garden, Covesville, Yancey
  Mills, Stony Point, Buffalo Springs and Flordon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EDT for central
Virginia.
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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

12 HRRR (still running now) really ramps us this early line and plows it through the area as scheduled. Should leave a decent amount of time for the airmass to recover/destabilize. Rare two round severe day seems more and more likely...though second batch I'd venture a guess won't be as severe. 

I'm...somewhat more intrigued about our potential today. Over/under for LWX CWA:

TORs issued: 5, 2 confirmed when it's over
SVRs issued: 24
FFW issued: 6

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high risk

high risk

Posted
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Agree fully that the threat for tornadoes, given the current storm mode being mostly linear, is fairly low and will be limited to brief, low-end TORs.    Wind damage is the bigger threat.    The wildcard, though, will be if any storm can form out ahead and remain discrete.     That would be a different ballgame.

Parameters are fairly good to our south - it looks like they will advect north before the line arrives, but that's still "work that has to be done".    We don't currently have any src-based instability to work with.

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

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23 minutes ago, high risk said:

Agree fully that the threat for tornadoes, given the current storm mode being mostly linear, is fairly low and will be limited to brief, low-end TORs.    Wind damage is the bigger threat.    The wildcard, though, will be if any storm can form out ahead and remain discrete.     That would be a different ballgame.

Parameters are fairly good to our south - it looks like they will advect north before the line arrives, but that's still "work that has to be done".    We don't currently have any src-based instability to work with.

Latest SPC mesoanalysis has between 500 - 100 SBCAPE tongue ahead of the main line up from NOVA into Gettysburg. I know @Ian has posted in the past about how sneaky these ribbons of SBCAPE can in environments like this.

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Latest SPC mesoanalysis has between 500 - 100 SBCAPE tongue ahead of the main line up from NOVA into Gettysburg. I know @Ian has posted in the past about how sneaky these ribbons of SBCAPE can in environments like this.

3hr SBCAPE change has been like +600 for most of us and even +1000 south of DC. Not bad. Even MLCAPE is +400 SE of DC. 

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
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^

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1102 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Central Spotsylvania County in central Virginia...

* Until 1130 AM EDT.
    
* At 1102 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located near Bumpass, or 7 miles east of Mineral,
  moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, 
           flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. 
           Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is 
           likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Spotsylvania and Massaponax around 1130 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Glenora, Post Oak, Gatewood, Brokenburg, Snell and Alsop.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
 

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