Interstate Posted May 25, 2022 Share Posted May 25, 2022 No thank you for more severe storm. I spend 2.5 hours cleaning up 2-20 foot branches that fell from my one of my locust trees. I had to easy compared to some of my neighbors . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 25, 2022 Share Posted May 25, 2022 Haven't seen the phrase "violent thunderstorms" in an AFD from LWX in a while SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The stalled front to our south will begin creeping north as a warm front on Thursday. Early morning low clouds and drizzle may also slide north across southern Maryland and Tidal Potomac and farther into parts of the metro areas Thursday morning. As the day progresses, we should less and less of low clouds and drizzle as daytime heating should mix this out. The warm front will continue to march north during the day Thursday. Winds will become more southerly and increase both at the surface and a few thousand feet above the ground Thursday afternoon. With this increase in southerly winds comes an increase in low level moisture; thus, PWATs could rise quickly from 1.25 to near 2 inches from early Thursday morning through late Thursday evening. This moisture and increase in wind could set the stage for an increased threat for violent thunderstorms and possible flooding Friday into Friday night. The instability will increase through the day on Thursday with the added sunshine and warmth. Temperatures on Thursday will trend upwards with highs expected to reach the middle to upper 70s. A leeside trough of low pressure nearly in sync with a warm front pushing north of our region could be the zone in which showers and a rumble of thunder form Thursday night and mainly across the western zones. Showers and thunderstorms, some on the strong to severe side, could develop over the western zones Friday mid-morning and carrying eastward Friday afternoon with addition development into Friday evening. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding, while the more intense thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening could produce damaging winds and large hail. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s on Friday with dewpoint temperatures climbing into the middle to upper 60s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted May 25, 2022 Share Posted May 25, 2022 Here we go again. All I want to see is a firefly. Or as many say in these parts, lightning bug! I guess if we swing enough, we'll eventually hit something, right. Hopefully it's that barn that's falling down, save me the trouble of using winches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2022 Author Share Posted May 26, 2022 It's not the sector that's centered over our area, but the SE sector from the 12z CIPS page at hr60 has June 1, 2012 as a pretty high analog. Doesn't show up at all on the sector centered over us. Taking a look at H5 it's not hugely different - but there are some key differences. It seems like the trough was more negatively tilting in 2012. We still have a couple days to adjust things - but I'm certainly not saying I expect that sort of result. But H5 is close enough to keep me interested. The 18z run of the NAM nest wasn't quite as impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 26, 2022 Share Posted May 26, 2022 Best thing to do is walk away from this for 24 hours and remain emotionally disinvested. Check back with the 06z update on Friday and wait for the first few visible satellite images before committing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted May 26, 2022 Share Posted May 26, 2022 7 hours ago, Interstate said: No thank you for more severe storm. I spend 2.5 hours cleaning up 2-20 foot branches that fell from my one of my locust trees. I had to easy compared to some of my neighbors . Have a bunch of locust trees on our property and can relate. They are tough as nails, but brittle too and have a tendency to snap off. Lost two trees to high winds during a "rotation event" that came through Oakton/Vienna about 8 years ago. Snapped off both trunks about 10 feet above the ground. Each trunk was about 20" in diameter. Watched it happen from our front door about 50 yards away. On the good side, locust is one of the few woods that can be direct buried in the ground and is nearly impervious to insects. It splits easy and burns great if you happen to have a wood burning fireplace. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2022 Share Posted May 26, 2022 5/5/15 on day 2 morning OTLK from SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 26, 2022 Share Posted May 26, 2022 10 hours ago, RDM said: Have a bunch of locust trees on our property and can relate. They are tough as nails, but brittle too and have a tendency to snap off. Lost two trees to high winds during a "rotation event" that came through Oakton/Vienna about 8 years ago. Snapped off both trunks about 10 feet above the ground. Each trunk was about 20" in diameter. Watched it happen from our front door about 50 yards away. On the good side, locust is one of the few woods that can be direct buried in the ground and is nearly impervious to insects. It splits easy and burns great if you happen to have a wood burning fireplace. I’ve seen locust cause a chainsaw to throw sparks. And it wasn’t a rock 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted May 26, 2022 Share Posted May 26, 2022 42 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ve seen locust cause a chainsaw to throw sparks. And it wasn’t a rock That can occur with any wood. The sparks are coming from the guide bar. Its OK to occasionally see (sparks) but frequent sparks mean there is an issue with not enough bar oil (oiler problem/clogged line/pump etc) or chain is too tight or damaged from derailing, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2022 Author Share Posted May 26, 2022 Some of the guidance has brought the activity earlier. A few CAMS even have the line entering around 17 or 18z. That's not going to work for severe weenies. 20z would be okay. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2022 Author Share Posted May 26, 2022 04/2011 is shown in the analogs as well and That was our like 12 or 18 hours of tornado watches event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 26, 2022 Share Posted May 26, 2022 31 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: 04/2011 is shown in the analogs as well and That was our like 12 or 18 hours of tornado watches event. Two decent events in April 2011: April 16, 2011: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20110416 April 27, 2011: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20110427 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 26, 2022 Share Posted May 26, 2022 4/27-28 2011 was part of that super outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 26, 2022 Share Posted May 26, 2022 Tomorrow seems so dicey. Leaning towards a meh, but hopefully we can get a W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2022 Author Share Posted May 26, 2022 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Tomorrow seems so dicey. Leaning towards a meh, but hopefully we can get a W. When split between a meh and a yay, always go the EJ route of calling meh. I haven't had a chance to look at the 12z suite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted May 26, 2022 Share Posted May 26, 2022 Best is to expect nothing and to be surprised. I'm expecting no clearing until about 1 PM and only 2-3 hours of good heating leaving us with gusty showers and a pity blue box or MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2022 Share Posted May 26, 2022 5% tor definitely was moved westward some on the 1730z SPC day 2 update... with DC metro now more in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2022 Share Posted May 26, 2022 ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic... Although mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain generally poor, rich low-level moisture characterized by mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints will likely be in place ahead of the cold front. Even modest diurnal heating should contribute to MLCAPE generally ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, with somewhat greater instability forecast from parts of MD/VA southward into the Carolinas. Enhanced low/mid-level south-southwesterly flow associated with the upper low is expected to be in place from the Carolinas northward over much of the eastern Mid-Atlantic states ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear of 35-50+ kt will easily support thunderstorm organization, with a mix of multicells and supercells possible. Thunderstorms that will probably be ongoing at the start of the period Friday morning should gradually increase in coverage and intensity along/ahead of the front from late Friday morning through the afternoon. With a large southerly component to the low/mid-level winds, convection should tend to grow upscale with time into small bowing clusters as individual updrafts interact with each other. It appears that scattered damaging winds will probably be the main threat as thunderstorms spread east-northeastward through the afternoon and early evening given the messy and mainly multicellular mode. But, enough low-level shear should also be present in association with a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet to support a risk for a few tornadoes with any embedded supercells, particularly from central NC into VA/MD/DE, southeastern PA, and NJ Friday afternoon. Isolated hail may also occur with the strongest updrafts. The northern extent of the appreciable severe in NY and the Northeast will be heavily dependent on diurnal heating, the degree of which remains highly uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2022 Share Posted May 26, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 26, 2022 Share Posted May 26, 2022 I'm backing off on my enthusiasm a bit due to an increasing number of model solutions that bring convection into our area as early as midday. Probably need things to hold off a couple of hours to maximize heating in an environment that won't be excessively warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted May 26, 2022 Share Posted May 26, 2022 2 hours ago, biodhokie said: Best is to expect nothing and to be surprised. I'm expecting no clearing until about 1 PM and only 2-3 hours of good heating leaving us with gusty showers and a pity blue box or MD. This. This is Maryland, home of the megaBUST! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2022 Share Posted May 26, 2022 Good disco by LWX this afternoon re the severe and flooding threat .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday will be an active day -- but not without caveats -- as a cold/occluded front and upper level low approach from the west. Expect two main foci (but not necessarily limited to) for shower/storm development: the first will be along the slowly eastward advancing low level jet/lead wave, and the second closer to the actual front and forcing from the main trough axis. Low level clouds may have difficulty clearing ahead of wave one, but models indicate the moisture rich airmass and diurnal heating could result in moderate instability near and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains by afternoon (this being a potential question mark). Ongoing convection will likely see some increase in intensity as it moves eastward. Even though instability and lapse rates may be lacking, sufficient deep layer shear ahead of the trough will be sufficient to result in storm organization. Damaging winds will be the primary threat due to the wind fields and potential for congealing into clusters, but some hail is also possible. Low level shear magnitude and low LCLs will also be sufficient for a tornado threat, although the mesoscale environment could potentially be messy. Forecast soundings are also indicative of a heavy rain threat with saturated profiles, precipitable water greater than 1.5 inches, deep warm cloud layers, and low MBE velocities with storm mergers and relatively slow eastward propagation possible. Compounding the threat will be the potential for multiple waves of storms. If the storm mode is too disorganized and widespread, it`s possible heavy rain and flash flooding will be the greater threat compared to severe storms. It`s a bit uncertain how much instability the second round of storms will have to work with, as it is not expected until late afternoon in the mountains and evening (should it hold together) east I-81. These storms have a conditional threat to be severe if the atmosphere can recover as shear will still be in place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2022 Author Share Posted May 26, 2022 1 hour ago, high risk said: I'm backing off on my enthusiasm a bit due to an increasing number of model solutions that bring convection into our area as early as midday. Probably need things to hold off a couple of hours to maximize heating in an environment that won't be excessively warm. Yeah - lots are now hitting the 16-18z time period. That's too early for our hopes. We need 19z or later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted May 26, 2022 Share Posted May 26, 2022 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: Yeah - lots are now hitting the 16-18z time period. That's too early for our hopes. We need 19z or later... Looking like flooding may be the biggest concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 26, 2022 Share Posted May 26, 2022 22 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: Looking like flooding may be the biggest concern. Yea tomorrow has sporadic, but significant flash flooding all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 WPC on board with flood potential tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Keep an eye on those cells in western NC. They've been having some tendency to spin. We might get a few early AM tors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Keep an eye on those cells in western NC. They've been having some tendency to spin. We might get a few early AM tors. Are we talking about like in 3 to 6 hours or like after sunrise but before noon? Anyway, MCD said they should weaken soon with loss of diurnal heating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Are we talking about like in 3 to 6 hours or like after sunrise but before noon? Anyway, MCD said they should weaken soon with loss of diurnal heating After sunrise but before noon. Sometimes when we get these remnant showers/weak storms entering early on a day progged for severe weather they have just enough juice left to spark a rogue weak tornado or some other kind of pre-game action. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 00z NAM has two rounds (both severe?)... one around 19z and another around 03z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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