WxUSAF Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 On 5/16/2022 at 5:49 PM, WxUSAF said: WxUSAF: marked SAFE from the Mid-Atlantic’s first Day 1 ENH of 2022 WxUSAF: marked SAFE from the Mid-Atlantic’s first Tornado Watch of 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 5 hours ago, high risk said: Totally get where you're coming from on this, but I'll throw out 2 counterpoints: 1) For today, remember that SPC has to have boundaries on their watches *somewhere*, and if you're in one of those "last counties", unless you've got an adjacent watch box on the other side of the box, your threat is pretty low. They typically make the watches slightly bigger than needed to allow for some margin for error. The chances of SVR today extending all the way south to Howard were always pretty low. 2) Monday was frustrating, but the big hail-producing cell that crushed the southern DC burbs shows that high-end potential did exist. The failure was overpredicting the coverage, which happened after the poorly-modeled midday convection screwed up the environment for a lot of us. As one who was stuck in the car being bombed by teacup sized hail with nowhere to hide I'd say consider yourself very lucky that Monday was a miss. My car is covered in dents and the trees were shredded. Who wants that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 9 hours ago, IronTy said: As one who was stuck in the car being bombed by teacup sized hail with nowhere to hide I'd say consider yourself very lucky that Monday was a miss. My car is covered in dents and the trees were shredded. Who wants that? Well... I'd pay big bucks to experience monster hail lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 3 hours ago, dailylurker said: Well... I'd pay big bucks to experience monster hail lol I saved a dozen or so hailstones in my freezer. Send me a couple Gs to help repair my car dents and cracks in my home siding and I'll throw them at your windows as hard as I can. It's a win-win for both of us. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 21, 2022 Author Share Posted May 21, 2022 Extended CIPS analogs are honking for some severe potential at the 168hr frame. Strongest signal on that page I've seen so far this season/year for our region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 21, 2022 Author Share Posted May 21, 2022 This is the same timeframe, but for "at least 10 severe reports within 110km of a grid point" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 39 minutes ago, IronTy said: I saved a dozen or so hailstones in my freezer. Send me a couple Gs to help repair my car dents and cracks in my home siding and I'll throw them at your windows as hard as I can. It's a win-win for both of us. I'm with you! For those asking for it let me tell you something. When you've never feared for your life, you think that's something you want. It's most certainly NOT! I've gotten older and for the most part, wiser. I've experienced severe property damage AND bodily injury in the form of central nervous system damage and sensory impairment from sideflashes from being too close to CG. Have huge respect for all aspects. Being told by authorities that a shelter was safe when in fact it wasn't due to the plans being wrong (elevation 20 feet lower than actual) and having to climb above a drop ceiling holding on to sprinkler system pipes to escape storm surge waters. I could write a book regaling my tales of experience both at sea and on land from weather both expected and unexpected, my fault and not, etc. I remember when I always thought it would be neat to be in an earthquake and when I experienced it I realized it was something I would not want. It's like something straight out of a Stephen King horror story! And I'm more of the "back woodsy" kind of guy that's been around danger and on occasion shaken hands with it numerous times. Be careful what you wish for! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 5 hours ago, Stormfly said: I'm with you! For those asking for it let me tell you something. When you've never feared for your life, you think that's something you want. It's most certainly NOT! I've gotten older and for the most part, wiser. I've experienced severe property damage AND bodily injury in the form of central nervous system damage and sensory impairment from sideflashes from being too close to CG. Have huge respect for all aspects. Being told by authorities that a shelter was safe when in fact it wasn't due to the plans being wrong (elevation 20 feet lower than actual) and having to climb above a drop ceiling holding on to sprinkler system pipes to escape storm surge waters. I could write a book regaling my tales of experience both at sea and on land from weather both expected and unexpected, my fault and not, etc. I remember when I always thought it would be neat to be in an earthquake and when I experienced it I realized it was something I would not want. It's like something straight out of a Stephen King horror story! And I'm more of the "back woodsy" kind of guy that's been around danger and on occasion shaken hands with it numerous times. Be careful what you wish for! Water and lightning: two very serious forces I have no interest in testing too much. And earthquakes. The west can have that lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 On 5/20/2022 at 6:10 PM, WxUSAF said: WxUSAF: marked SAFE from the Mid-Atlantic’s first Tornado Watch of 2022 I hope the next DC-area wedge destroys your home! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, mattie g said: I hope the next DC-area wedge destroys your home! How much you drink today?? I know for me, Wine in the Woods (Columbia) crossed with all my friends at Hysteria, Oliver’s and Sapwood at the fest today made for one hell of day! Damn it was hot in the sun though. Imagine that. Hot…sun. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 41 minutes ago, mattie g said: I hope the next DC-area wedge destroys your home! Thanks for the support!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 This is supposedly a pic of Calvert county from the Monday storm, taken looking out from St Mary's county. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 3 hours ago, Scraff said: How much you drink today?? I know for me, Wine in the Woods (Columbia) crossed with all my friends at Hysteria, Oliver’s and Sapwood at the fest today made for one hell of day! Damn it was hot in the sun though. Imagine that. Hot…sun. LOL. Umm…nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Thanks for the support!! I’m here for you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 Hmmm... from the new Day 1 SPC OTLK this morning... its 0/5/5 right now with us in MRGL... but: Early this morning, a substantial amount of convection has progressed into the TN Valley and there is some indication a weak disturbance could evolve from the middle TN activity by sunrise. If so, this feature would progress northeast and likely contribute to renewed convection over the middle Atlantic later today. At this time will not extend SLGT Risk into MD/VA to account for this threat, as this feature may be more readily ascertained by late morning. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 Hrrr and 3k NAM both have 2 rounds of storms for the metro corridor. 20-22z and then 0-2z. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 Looks like we got upgraded to slight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 Mesoscale Discussion 0869 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022 Areas affected...Portions of northern/central VA into the eastern WV Panhandle...MD...PA...NY...NJ...DC...and a small part of New England Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 221620Z - 221845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and hail should increase as thunderstorms develop by early this afternoon. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...Partly to mostly clear skies ahead of a front will allow the airmass to quickly destabilize into early this afternoon across parts of VA/MD/PA/NY and vicinity. A rather moist low-level airmass is in place across this region, with generally 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints. Fairly cool mid-level temperatures are also present, which coupled with continued diurnal heating will likely support MLCAPE reaching 1000-2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Locally greater instability is possible across PA, MD, and VA where better low-level moisture is present. The stronger mid-level flow associated with an upper trough over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada should remain displaced mostly to the west of the surface warm sector. Still, around 25-35 kt of southwesterly winds at 500 mb (weaker with southward extent into the Mid-Atlantic) should foster similar values of effective bulk shear and some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters are expected to develop early this afternoon, initially over the higher terrain of VA/MD/PA/NY. As this activity strengthens and spreads eastward, it should be capable of producing scattered damaging wind gusts and perhaps isolated hail. Most guidance suggests that initial thunderstorm development will occur by 17-18Z (1-2 PM EDT). A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued around that time frame to address the increasing threat through the rest of the afternoon. ..Gleason/Hart.. 05/22/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 Deep-layer shear in our area is really crap (way better to the north), but given that storms will likely be organized and that the soundings have some appreciable downdraft CAPE, I guess I can get on board with the idea of a watch being issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9pm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 Should have I watered the grass and flowers? That is the question! Neighborhood just cleaned up after last Monday, so only rain please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 261 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 155 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2022 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-037-041- 043-510-230100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0261.220522T1755Z-220523T0100Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD KENT MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE`S ST. MARYS TALBOT WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 261 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 155 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2022 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS VAC003-013-015-043-047-059-061-069-079-099-107-113-125-137-139- 153-157-165-171-177-179-187-510-540-600-610-630-660-683-685-790- 820-840-230100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0261.220522T1755Z-220523T0100Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBEMARLE ARLINGTON AUGUSTA CLARKE CULPEPER FAIRFAX FAUQUIER FREDERICK GREENE KING GEORGE LOUDOUN MADISON NELSON ORANGE PAGE PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD WARREN VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDRIA CHARLOTTESVILLE FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH FREDERICKSBURG HARRISONBURG MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK STAUNTON WAYNESBORO WINCHESTER $$ SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 261 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 155 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2022 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS DCC001-230100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0261.220522T1755Z-220523T0100Z/ DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 Hoping that line from central PA to the border will fill in as it moves east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 335 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... * Until 415 PM EDT. * At 334 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Point Of Rocks, or 9 miles southwest of Harry Grove Stadium, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Frederick, Harry Grove Stadium, Ballenger Creek, Brunswick, Braddock Heights, New Market, Point Of Rocks, Linganore-Bartonsville, Adamstown, Jefferson, Buckeystown, Monrovia, Rosemont, Ijamsville, Doubs, Park Mills, Petersville, Tuscarora and Taylorstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 Updated Severe warning for the storm near Middleburg. Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 358 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... West central Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... North central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... * Until 445 PM EDT. * At 358 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Middleburg, or 8 miles west of Brambleton, moving east at 15 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 Special Marine Warning ANZ535-222145- /O.NEW.KLWX.MA.W.0045.220522T2047Z-220522T2145Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Special Marine Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 447 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Special Marine Warning for... Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD... * Until 545 PM EDT. * At 446 PM EDT, thunderstorm gust fronts were located along a line extending from 12 nm west of Key Bridge to 14 nm west of Alexandria to 17 nm northwest of Mason Neck State Park, moving southeast at 15 knots. HAZARD...Wind gusts 34 knots or greater. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Boaters in small craft could be thrown overboard by suddenly higher winds and waves capsizing their vessel. * Locations impacted include... Fort Washington, Tidal Basin, Reagan National Airport, Gunston Hall, Woodrow Wilson Bridge, Key Bridge, Fort Hunt, National Harbor and Alexandria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 Just had the most intense thunderstorm I've seen in years here. I was just arriving back from College Park after moving kids out of apartment and it hit right as we got off 270. We crawled the last three miles with 50-60 mph winds, blinding rain and close lightning. Got home and was pleasantly surprised to see my dozens of seedlings and flowers still on a table out in the yard -- I was afraid they would have been blown off. Just as I said "phew" the HAIL started! I got real worried for a minute but it was never more than nicked sized. I don't like hail. At all. I have seen baseball sized hail twice in my life -- Kettering, MD in 1978 and Orlando, FL in 1992 where windows were smashed, cars and roofs were ruined, and I never want to see it again. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 It drizzled for a minute guess that's it for here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 Warnings just announced for NW DC and Arlington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 509 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... The northwestern District of Columbia... Southeastern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Northwestern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... The City of Fairfax in northern Virginia... Arlington County in northern Virginia... The City of Falls Church in northern Virginia... Central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The City of Alexandria in northern Virginia... * Until 600 PM EDT. * At 509 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Oakton, or over Fairfax, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Arlington, Alexandria, Bethesda, Reston, Annandale, Springfield, Fairfax, Langley Park, Vienna, Groveton, Falls Church, Huntington, Mantua, Pimmit Hills, Mclean, Howard University, American Legion Bridge, Fort Totten, Rosslyn and Crystal City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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