mattie g Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 I think what we should do is forecast on our own, and ignore everything SPC says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 Sneaky severe Friday afternoon? Updated Day 2 OTLK discussion from SPC... right now it's just north of DC into N MD including Baltimore and S PA into NJ/DE... ..Mid-Atlantic... A remnant MCV from earlier convection should be present over PA at the start of the period Friday morning. Some strong to perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms may develop ahead of this circulation across parts of southern PA/northern MD into DE and southern NJ Friday afternoon. If convection can form, it would pose a threat for all severe hazards given gradually increasing instability and a favorable kinematic parameter space related to the MCV. Confidence in thunderstorms redeveloping is not particularly high, but there is enough of a signal in guidance to include a small Marginal Risk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 20, 2022 Author Share Posted May 20, 2022 7 hours ago, yoda said: Sneaky severe Friday afternoon? Updated Day 2 OTLK discussion from SPC... right now it's just north of DC into N MD including Baltimore and S PA into NJ/DE... ..Mid-Atlantic... A remnant MCV from earlier convection should be present over PA at the start of the period Friday morning. Some strong to perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms may develop ahead of this circulation across parts of southern PA/northern MD into DE and southern NJ Friday afternoon. If convection can form, it would pose a threat for all severe hazards given gradually increasing instability and a favorable kinematic parameter space related to the MCV. Confidence in thunderstorms redeveloping is not particularly high, but there is enough of a signal in guidance to include a small Marginal Risk. I saw a few model runs with good parameters but not much to show for it in terms of potential sensible weather. Maybe another day where we get one or two good cells but most of the area is meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 MRGL risk for just north of DC into most of N and C MD on new Day 1 OTLK... best chance in PA where there is slight risk... 2/5/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 As noted, that MCV is going to be a big player today, but it looks like most of the activity will be in PA. I wouldn't be surprised, based on the latest HRRR runs, if they go ENH there. Looks like less of a chance for the DC/Baltimore areas, but these MCVs can be tricky to model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 20, 2022 Author Share Posted May 20, 2022 17 minutes ago, high risk said: As noted, that MCV is going to be a big player today, but it looks like most of the activity will be in PA. I wouldn't be surprised, based on the latest HRRR runs, if they go ENH there. Looks like less of a chance for the DC/Baltimore areas, but these MCVs can be tricky to model. I'd feel better being up in @mappyland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I'd feel better being up in @mappyland for sure, but the show may still be well north of there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 30 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I'd feel better being up in @mappyland Better chance than you, but I think it will still miss me north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 20, 2022 Author Share Posted May 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, mappy said: Better chance than you, but I think it will still miss me north. Yep - definitely seems to be the case. Like @high risk said - only thing left for us is that it could be poorly modeled - but agreement has been pretty solid on the show being up in PA. No reason to expect otherwise right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 I can almost toss a stone into that yellow box from my deck. After Monday's atrocity, I'll take my chances. Even if some high reaching boomers pass through York county, we usually enjoy the lightshow here. Since we have (yet) to see fireflies here, I'll take them inside mashed potatoes in the sky! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 24 minutes ago, Stormfly said: I can almost toss a stone into that yellow box from my deck. After Monday's atrocity, I'll take my chances. Even if some high reaching boomers pass through York county, we usually enjoy the lightshow here. Since we have (yet) to see fireflies here, I'll take them inside mashed potatoes in the sky! Yes! Same here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Watch coming for N MD Mesoscale Discussion 0838 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0939 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022 Areas affected...much of central Pennsylvania into far northern Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 201439Z - 201615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of central PA into MD. Damaging gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes may accompany the strongest, longer lived storms. A WW issuance will be needed within the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...A remnant mid-level MCV (evident via water vapor imagery and 700-500 mb objective analysis fields) is currently located just west of the OH/PA border and continues to track eastward towards central PA, and is expected to support more robust convective initiation in the next few hours. Immediately ahead of the MCV center lies a highly sheared low-level environment, with recent PBZ VAD data showing relatively long, curved low-level hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 of associated 0-1km SRH. At the moment, buoyancy remains scant across portions of western into central PA. However, modest breaks in the clouds are contributing to modest surface heating, with mid 60s F surface temperatures already noted across central PA, with low 70s F along the PA/MD border. With surface dewpoints around 60F across several locales, RAP forecast soundings suggest temperatures need to warm into the lower 70s for appreciable buoyancy to develop given the presence of relatively poor (5.5-6.5 C/km) low and mid-level lapse rates. While buoyancy is expected to initially be marginal (i.e. at or below 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), localized deep-layer ascent and strong low-level shear associated with the approaching MCV should support at least a few strong to severe storms developing early this afternoon. Damaging gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be the primary concerns, though a brief instance or two of marginally severe hail cannot be completely ruled out with the longer-lived, persistent rotating updrafts. A WW issuance will be needed within the next couple of hours to address the severe threat. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/20/2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 20, 2022 Author Share Posted May 20, 2022 Maybe worth mentioning - or may be nothing - but that line entering western Maryland has not been well modeled on the short range guidance. Latest HRRR doesn't even have that line where it actually is. Probably will have a tendency to get tugged back into PA - but the area in the MCD could still get something out of this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Maybe I’m invested in this because it’s faux tropical in appearance lol, but here’s HM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Nice line trying to bow west of Cumberland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 20, 2022 Author Share Posted May 20, 2022 Yeah some of the guidance looks absolutely nothing like the actual radar at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Yeah some of the guidance looks absolutely nothing like the actual radar at the moment. Love these kind of days. The sneaky setups often produce. I think the IR will look great when there’s more instability this afternoon in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Tornado Watch up TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 251 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2022 TORNADO WATCH 251 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS WVC003-027-037-057-065-202300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0251.220520T1535Z-220520T2300Z/ WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKELEY HAMPSHIRE JEFFERSON MINERAL MORGAN $$ TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 251 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2022 TORNADO WATCH 251 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC001-005-013-015-021-023-025-027-043-510-202300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0251.220520T1535Z-220520T2300Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BALTIMORE CARROLL CECIL FREDERICK GARRETT HARFORD HOWARD WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 oh hello tornado watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 40/20 tor probs 30/30 hail probs 70/20 wind probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Balt Co is out 3hrs yearly today, which is good if severe weather is coming, but I do hope they don't cancel after school activities/child care again. The kid has big plans for her half day with movies and outside play with friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Looks like it's going to be north of us. Isn't this the activity the models had forecast severe for NC two days ago? Winds picked up considerably, feels like summer. Someone pass the clicker so I can FF to Veteran's Day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Headed to Cumberland for the weekend. Surprised at the red box. Hopefully I catch something in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 That all looks like it is going way north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Tornado Warning for Allegheny County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1241 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Washington County in north central Maryland... East central Allegany County in western Maryland... Northwestern Morgan County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 115 PM EDT. * At 1240 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Barnes Gap, or 9 miles west of Hancock, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Hancock around 1255 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Little Orleans, Lineburg and Green Ridge. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Sitting at Ott House in Emmittsburg and it definitely has //that feel// up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Seems like the models have a good grasp of what things look like right now. Rough Monday and Friday for forecasters for our area. Swing and a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Waiting for wedges in HoCo. #Nothappening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 2 hours ago, osfan24 said: Seems like the models have a good grasp of what things look like right now. Rough Monday and Friday for forecasters for our area. Swing and a miss. Totally get where you're coming from on this, but I'll throw out 2 counterpoints: 1) For today, remember that SPC has to have boundaries on their watches *somewhere*, and if you're in one of those "last counties", unless you've got an adjacent watch box on the other side of the box, your threat is pretty low. They typically make the watches slightly bigger than needed to allow for some margin for error. The chances of SVR today extending all the way south to Howard were always pretty low. 2) Monday was frustrating, but the big hail-producing cell that crushed the southern DC burbs shows that high-end potential did exist. The failure was overpredicting the coverage, which happened after the poorly-modeled midday convection screwed up the environment for a lot of us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now