2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[Kmlwx]

Synoptic wind is where it's at for this event it seems. I just got finished with work - it's on the very high side of guidance...but the 18z NAM nest has 65mph winds over a pretty good area between 2 and 3am tonight. 

[yoda]

First mention of tornado threat in the AFD this afternoon too

Showers should continue to overspread the area late this evening
into tonight. QPF looks to be fairly light and flooding concerns
remain low at this time but nonzero. Will continue to monitor radar
trends over the next several hours to account for any possible
flooding concerns to arise for later tonight. There continues to be
a signal for two quasi-distinct lines of stronger, embedded showers
late tonight and into early Friday morning. The initial line,
associated with the trough should be entering the area by around
midnight from the west and continue to move further east. The second
line (likely the cold front) will follow behind that line by an hour
or two. There is a possibility for a rumble of thunder for most of
the area late tonight and into early Friday morning. If the lines of
embedded showers meet with the increased SRH values (400+ 0-1 km)
then there may pose a threat for an isolated tornado. Although, the
most likely culprit for a SVR/SMW issuance would be for wind damage
possibility with these gusty winds present throughout the night. The
chances of a quick spin up are non-zero at this time. Ingredients
would have to line up timing wise but there could be some
disagreement there tonight.

[SnowenOutThere]

Brakes in the fast moving clouds, if only there was some sun to hear things up 

Edit1A: Wow, I should sleep more and post less at four AM, or just check my spelling.

Edit1B: Amended version: Breaks in the fast moving clouds, if only there was some sun to heat things up.

[nw baltimore wx]

5 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Brakes in the fast moving clouds, if only there was some sun to hear things up 

This looks like one of my early morning posts when I don't have my glasses near the bed.

[mappy]

9 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Brakes in the fast moving clouds, if only there was some sun to hear things up 

lol brakes

@stormtracker

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, mappy said:

lol brakes

@stormtracker

it was four AM in the morning. This was after getting up at four AM every day of the week. I was having some issues being conscious. 

[mappy]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

it was four AM in the morning. This was after getting up at four AM every day of the week. I was having some issues being conscious. 

it happens to the best of us. but still. lol

[yoda]

So... maybe Monday night?

From the morning LWX AFD:

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Sct-nmrs morning showers expected Sunday in association with a
strong low-lvl jet, then turning mainly dry during the
afternoon. Temps could possibly reach into the low 80s for the
first time this year. Remaining breezy/windy Sunday and Sunday
night with low temperatures more typical of early June. Some
showers are possible over the mountains and across northern
areas.

Deepning low pressure center over OH valley will track across
the area Monday night bringing widespread showers and risk of
thunderstorms late Monday through midnight Monday night. Strong
low-level winds may pose a risk of damaging winds across the
higher elevations where SPC has indicated a slight risk of
severe weather Monday.

[George BM]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

So... maybe Monday night?

From the morning LWX AFD:

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Sct-nmrs morning showers expected Sunday in association with a
strong low-lvl jet, then turning mainly dry during the
afternoon. Temps could possibly reach into the low 80s for the
first time this year. Remaining breezy/windy Sunday and Sunday
night with low temperatures more typical of early June. Some
showers are possible over the mountains and across northern
areas.

Deepning low pressure center over OH valley will track across
the area Monday night bringing widespread showers and risk of
thunderstorms late Monday through midnight Monday night. Strong
low-level winds may pose a risk of damaging winds across the
higher elevations where SPC has indicated a slight risk of
severe weather Monday.

Perhaps we get our first MRGL of the year?....

[SnowenOutThere]

On 3/5/2022 at 8:11 AM, George BM said:

Perhaps we get our first MRGL of the year?....

I’ll do ya one better 

[yoda]

0600Z spc disco

Southern Appalachians through northern Mid Atlantic coast...
   Modest pre-frontal low-level moistening and, perhaps more notably,
   relatively warm layers aloft are generally forecast to limit warm
   sector boundary-layer destabilization today through tonight. 
   However, given at least weak conditional instability, mid-level
   forcing for ascent along/ahead of the eastward advancing cold front
   will probably be sufficient to maintain or support new developing
   lines of fairly vigorous convection, particularly across the
   Cumberland Plateau and Allegheny Mountains vicinity into the
   northern Mid Atlantic coast by this evening.  Coinciding with one
   belt of 50-70+ kt south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer
   propagating to the west of the Allegheny Mountains, and another
   developing to the lee of the Blue Ridge into the northern Mid
   Atlantic coast by this evening, this convection will contribute to
   the downward transfer of this momentum toward the surface.  It seems
   probable that this will contribute to at least scattered, if not
   more widespread, damaging wind gusts.

[vastateofmind]

And from Mt. Holly's disco this AM...

Heading through this afternoon low pressure moves eastward through
upstate NY pushing a cold front into the area from the north and
west by late day. There will be an area of rain and showers with
this feature and it will begin to enter our north/west zones from
Berks County N/E through the Lehigh Valley into the southern Poconos
by mid afternoon. It should then reach the urban corridor by the 5
to 7 PM time frame. There won`t be very much instability but the
concern we have is that with wind speeds to 50 knots or so within
the lowest couple thousand feet, these could get mixed to the
surface in an embedded line of heavier showers that will likely
develop right near the front within the broader area of
rain/showers. Not every place will experience these winds but
the threat is high enough that the Storm Prediction Center has
placed areas near and N/W of the urban corridor in a SLIGHT risk
for severe storms because of this threat. Worth noting though,
these instances of embedded damaging winds that may occur may be
associated with little to no thunder and lightning. However
since this will be convectively driven, it will be handled with
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings if this materializes. Finally, the
Weather Prediction Center maintains much of the region near and
N/W of the urban corridor in a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall but I think the threat with this will be mostly urban
and poor drainage type flooding since the system will be
progressive.

[Kmlwx]

LWX indicates negligible instability. So we'll see how well the gusty showers can do. Ridiculously warm this morning for 3/7. Has "the feel" - at least the early season feel. 

[MillvilleWx]

These storms will scream meh on radar for severe purposes, but the winds could def materialize here. Enjoy the token Slight in March!

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

These storms will scream meh on radar for severe purposes, but the winds could def materialize here. Enjoy the token Slight in March!

We always seem to manage 1-3 of these early season slights per year. I doubt any of us even hear thunder this PM - but we do winds pretty well. 

[Stormfly]

3 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

These storms will scream meh on radar for severe purposes, but the winds could def materialize here. Enjoy the token Slight in March!

When they issue severe thunderstorm warnings with no lightning it sure does confuse people.  Perhaps they need to come up with a different name for it.  Any takers?

I'm thinking today we'll just have some gusty showers.

[high risk]

It's hard to get excited about an event with such a small chance for lightning, but I suppose that the showers later could mix down some intense gusts.    Given that we're already gusting to 35-40 knots, some convective enhancement could certainly take us into the severe range.

[yoda]

43 minutes ago, high risk said:

It's hard to get excited about an event with such a small chance for lightning, but I suppose that the showers later could mix down some intense gusts.    Given that we're already gusting to 35-40 knots, some convective enhancement could certainly take us into the severe range.

What do you think about Saturday?  Or too far out for right now?  LWX had a quick mention in their morning AFD about it 

[high risk]

33 minutes ago, yoda said:

What do you think about Saturday?  Or too far out for right now?  LWX had a quick mention in their morning AFD about it 

         Too far out.    Looks like a very strong system with an intense front, but verbatim, there isn't right now an impressive push of warmth and moisture in advance, and it comes through too quickly and too early.    If that changes, and it becomes a slower system, we would have time to advect a more impressive air mass into our area ahead of the system, and it might come through at a better time of day.    Both of these would open the door to SVR chances.

[yoda]

Looks like the supposed line is early?  Based off radar at least to me

[high risk]

27 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like the supposed line is early?  Based off radar at least to me

      A number of the HRRR solutions today have shown these crappy pre-frontal showers and have been less enthusiastic for our SVR chances.

[caviman2201]

3 hours ago, Stormfly said:

When they issue severe thunderstorm warnings with no lightning it sure does confuse people.  Perhaps they need to come up with a different name for it.  Any takers?

I'm thinking today we'll just have some gusty showers.

I don't know why they don't just say "storm" and leave off the "thunder". 

[yoda]

2 hours ago, high risk said:

         Too far out.    Looks like a very strong system with an intense front, but verbatim, there isn't right now an impressive push of warmth and moisture in advance, and it comes through too quickly and too early.    If that changes, and it becomes a slower system, we would have time to advect a more impressive air mass into our area ahead of the system, and it might come through at a better time of day.    Both of these would open the door to SVR chances.

LWX made a quick mention again in their afternoon AFD... mentions instability as only issue right now

Meanwhile, a potent low pressure system looks to develop near the
Great Lakes, moving into the northeast Saturday along with a strong
cold front. The threat of severe weather is worth monitoring with
this system moving forward, as SPC mentions the possibility of
severe in the Mid-Atlantic in this time frame. As far as ingredients
go, CAPE seems to be the limiting factor thus far.

[Kmlwx]

We got a watch! lol

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

We got a watch! lol

Well northern folks at least. 

[nj2va]

Warning for Garrett County for the cells entering the county.

[jewell2188]

I would think with a mod La Niña this spring, that would mean an active severe season for us? 

[mappy]

pity watch?

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

pity watch?

Woo showers?

[high risk]

There are reasonable questions about how far south the threat will extend, but there is a steady stream of wind damage reports coming in from central PA.