2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[aldie 22]

Sorta feels like we are done for the day back this way

[North Balti Zen]

Anything after this really does appear to be well east. 

[Kmlwx]

16z HRRR is advertising a decent complex of storms for extreme NoVA and into Central Maryland around 20z. 

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Anything after this really does appear to be well east. 

have faith! already clearing up in HV

[WxUSAF]

0.11” from the first round of showers. Some sun breaking through.

[MN Transplant]

Jumped 5-6 degrees since the rain stopped.

 

[mappy]

Sun!! LFG!

[H2O]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Sun!! LFG!

[MN Transplant]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

I believe we all feel called out here.

[Mrs.J]

16 minutes ago, mappy said:

have faith! already clearing up in HV

Yep sun out over here in Frederick and the wind is picking up. 

[H2O]

3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I believe we all feel called out here.

The only one not hitting the button is EJ.  He's already onto the weekend

[mappy]

didnt we already get the pity meso? lolololol

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

didnt we already get the pity meso? lolololol

And it was for 80% chance of watch. They are probably waiting longer to see convective trends/initiation. 

[WeatherShak]

Sun!! LFG!

[mappy]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

And it was for 80% chance of watch. They are probably waiting longer to see convective trends/initiation. 

thanks. wouldn't surprise me to see it issued for places east to fill in the gap between the watches to our north and south

[weatherCCB]

Sunny here

74/68

[H2O]

Sun and clouds. Warming up. Feels like DC split type weather

[Kmlwx]

Quote

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0786
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Areas affected...Northeast VA...Much of MD...Delmarva Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 161823Z - 162030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage and intensity is
anticipated this afternoon. The strongest of these storms will be
capable of damaging wind gusts and hail, and a watch will likely be
needed to cover these hazards.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown decreasing cloud
cover over the past hour or so, as the preceding area of showers and
thunderstorms moves quickly northeastward. Temperatures are warming
quickly as skies clear, with recent observations showing upper
70s/low 80s in northern VA. This warming trend is expected to
continue, with the air mass further destabilizing as it does. Ascent
attendant to the approaching shortwave coupled with broad low-level
confluence along and ahead of the cold front should result in
thunderstorm development as convective inhibition decreases this
afternoon. 

Combination of moderate buoyancy and shear across the region will
support robust updrafts and likely a few supercells if the mode can
remain discrete. Steep low-level lapse rates favor strong outflow
with any robust storms. Hail also appears likely given the amount of
buoyancy expected in place. Observational trends will be monitored
closely and a watch will likely be needed across portions of the
region this afternoon.

..Mosier/Grams.. 05/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

 

 

[Kmlwx]

2nd Meso of the day (discussion above). 

[aldie 22]

This movie seems familiar 

[North Balti Zen]

fringed

[high risk]

Storms are starting to intensify as they move east of I-81, and they're about to move into an environment with moderate CAPE values and 50 kt of deep layer shear.     It likely won't be a higher-end or widespread SVR event, but there will definitely be severe reports in northern VA and central and eastern MD later this afternoon.

[Kmlwx]

Yep - seeing growth now around Luray. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

Storms are starting to intensify as they move east of I-81, and they're about to move into an environment with moderate CAPE values and 50 kt of deep layer shear.     It likely won't be a higher-end or widespread SVR event, but there will definitely be severe reports in northern VA and central and eastern MD later this afternoon.

The one good thing we still have going for us is that we have a decent bit of shear and low level lapse rates. My temp has rebounded to 75 degrees so it's possible we could see a few beefy cells, but yea this morning's activity really capped any potential for a high end event in these parts.

[SnowenOutThere]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

but yea this morning's activity really capped any potential for a high end event in these parts.

[Scraff]

Thank god Howard County schools closed early today. Now my wife and I chilling on the deck. 1/2 day Rosé time. It’s beautiful out here!

[dailylurker]

Conditions have improved here in Carroll County. Sunny skies with a stiff breeze. I can almost see the wind shear. 

[Kmlwx]

Funny how earlier I thought best stuff would go north and east of me - now I'm worried about a miss south. Love weather. 

[Kleimax]

Watch issued

[Kleimax]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0230.html