2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Saturday is the day for our western folks

 

We don’t want a day

[high risk]

CAMs are all over the place for this afternoon, and none of them really have a good handle on this lead convection.    The HRRR is now at least starting to initialize the ongoing storms, and it still ramps up a line right along the I-95 corridor during the mid-late afternoon hours.     But the ongoing storms are stronger and in greater coverage than the HRRR has, so I'm still not convinced that it will capture the evolution.

I'm actually rooting for SVR, given that Howard County is releasing schools early.    I would hate for their decision to be ridiculed, leading them to not dismiss early on a future day where it was really needed.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

That crapvection entering DC and Baltimore metro might be the kiss of death for this afternoon if we don't get some respectable sunshine behind it.

[Kmlwx]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That crapvection entering DC and Baltimore metro might be the kiss of death for this afternoon if we don't get some respectable sunshine behind it.

I'm hanging my hopes on the very nice area of clearing behind the crapvection - if that fills in for our area, I think we are out of the game for anything other than isolated instances of severe gusts. 

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

lol hmmm

 

All Howard County public schools, including the Digital Education Center,will close 3-hours early today, Monday, May 16, 2022.

Omg…

[Kmlwx]

Quote

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0782
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Areas affected...Far Northeast VA...Eastern MD...DE...NJ...NY Hudson
Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 161601Z - 161800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Increased thunderstorm coverage is expected over the next
few hours, with supercells capable of damaging wind gusts and hail
possible.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite imagery has shown an
increase in the showers from northern VA into NJ, with a few
stronger embedded updrafts. This area is indicative of the increased
ascent preceding the shortwave trough and attendant cold front. Air
mass over most of the region has warmed into the low 70s amid
dewpoints in the mid 60s. While cloud cover may impede heating
somewhat, this air mass is still expected to further destabilize
over the next few hours. As it does, a few stronger updrafts may
manifest within this warm-air advection regime. Moderate shear is in
place, so any stronger, more persistent updrafts could organize, and
the potential for a few supercells capable of isolated hail and
damaging wind gusts exists. Greatest chance for severe thunderstorms
during the next few hours appears to be across NJ and into the
Hudson Valley where temperatures are highest. Convective trends are
being monitored across the entire region for likely watch issuance.

..Mosier/Grams.. 05/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

 

 

[Kmlwx]

[Paleocene]

A few rumbles of thunder with showers near downtown Silver Spring in the past 10 minutes.

[weatherCCB]

Heavy downpour just rolled thru.

0.35” in 10 min.

[osfan24]

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Omg…

Yeah, I can't believe they made that decision. Whoever is in charge of weather decisions in Hoco has had an awful year. Was pretty obvious as of a couple hours ago that this initial round was going to turn this into a bust.

So far, there was an early dismissal for flooding potential on a day when flooding was never of great concern, a snow day on a day where there was no accumulation on roads, and now this. May have been some others as well.

[mappy]

1 hour ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

lol hmmm

 

All Howard County public schools, including the Digital Education Center,will close 3-hours early today, Monday, May 16, 2022.

Baltimore County just cancelled after school activities and after school child care. yay.

[Kmlwx]

9 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah, I can't believe they made that decision. Whoever is in charge of weather decisions in Hoco has had an awful year. Was pretty obvious as of a couple hours ago that this initial round was going to turn this into a bust.

So far, there was an early dismissal for flooding potential on a day when flooding was never of great concern, a snow day on a day where there was no accumulation on roads, and now this. May have been some others as well.

This is by no means locked in and not "obvious" - yes - the crapvection has lowered potential...but all it takes is a look at the visible satellite. There are big pockets of sunshine as close as Culpeper and breaks in the clouds already into the NoVA area as well. It's still possible the showers and isolated storms have stabilized us, but it's only 12:30 with clearing on our doorstep. Plenty of time for some sunshine to increase CAPE again. 

[DanTheMan]

Sun starting to peak out in western Fairfax county as showers have moved away

[gunny23]

Dark and pouring in Sterling at noon but now the sun is starting to pop out

[Kmlwx]

The 45% wind probs were removed at the 1630z outlook. The 5% tor probs were also removed. Adding those seemed iffy with the uncertainties. Let's see how the next hour or two plays out in terms of destabilization. The ENH as a whole was trimmed a bit in terms of areal coverage. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

The 45% wind probs were removed at the 1630z outlook. The 5% tor probs were also removed. Adding those seemed iffy with the uncertainties. Let's see how the next hour or two plays out in terms of destabilization. The ENH as a whole was trimmed a bit in terms of areal coverage. 

yeah its further east. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The 45% wind probs were removed at the 1630z outlook. The 5% tor probs were also removed. Adding those seemed iffy with the uncertainties. Let's see how the next hour or two plays out in terms of destabilization. The ENH as a whole was trimmed a bit in terms of areal coverage. 

zzzz...next

[weatherCCB]

Second round moving thru now.

skies brighting.  0.46” from 2 rounds

[North Balti Zen]

It's raining downtown Baltimore. Simply rain.  Our ability to screw up a severe set-up is almost without parallel. 

[high risk]

7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The 45% wind probs were removed at the 1630z outlook. The 5% tor probs were also removed. Adding those seemed iffy with the uncertainties. Let's see how the next hour or two plays out in terms of destabilization. The ENH as a whole was trimmed a bit in terms of areal coverage. 

       Those TOR and WIND probs were definitely set too high.    But I agree with you that we shouldn't completely swing the pendulum all the way to the other side and go total 'meh' - there is still some SVR threat, especially for those along and east of I-95.

[mappy]

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

It's raining downtown Baltimore. Simply rain.  Our ability to screw up a severe set-up is almost without parallel. 

about to rain up this way too. I'm in Hunt Valley today, but been off/on drizzle at home most of the day. 

[North Balti Zen]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

about to rain up this way too. I'm in Hunt Valley today, but been off/on drizzle at home most of the day. 

As mentioned above in this thread, the difficulty getting legit storms in this area compared to previous places I have lived (central and southwestern Ohio, middle and western TN) is jaw-dropping. I assume it has something to do with our location relative to the blue ridge.  It feels like 99 times out of 100 we lock in clouds early and hold on these slight/enh type days. 

[osfan24]

5 minutes ago, high risk said:

       Those TOR and WIND probs were definitely set too high.    But I agree with you that we shouldn't completely swing the pendulum all the way to the other side and go total 'meh' - there is still some SVR threat, especially for those along and east of I-95.

Sure, there is a chance for a severe thunderstorm or two. That isn't a reason to dismiss schools early.

[WeatherShak]

SUN!!

[mappy]

10 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

As mentioned above in this thread, the difficulty getting legit storms in this area compared to previous places I have lived (central and southwestern Ohio, middle and western TN) is jaw-dropping. I assume it has something to do with our location relative to the blue ridge.  It feels like 99 times out of 100 we lock in clouds early and hold on these slight/enh type days. 

I hear you. At least we got some thunder yesterday!  

[dailylurker]

Rain and drizzle all morning. Ahhh..severe season is back. I'm not sure how anyone can get that excited for severe in this area. It's more rare then getting 2' of snow.

[Kmlwx]

21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

zzzz...next

 

14 minutes ago, high risk said:

       Those TOR and WIND probs were definitely set too high.    But I agree with you that we shouldn't completely swing the pendulum all the way to the other side and go total 'meh' - there is still some SVR threat, especially for those along and east of I-95.

Well - here we go into the clearing. It's not quite to me in Colesville yet...but it's right on the doorstep. Should be solid for a decent amount of clearing. Temperatures elevated pretty quick in the clearing (seeing 76 degrees near Culpeper). Probably going to be a "garden variety+" severe day here. Perhaps a bit more widespread and intense than our true "meh" days but also not any sort of higher end/memorable event. 

[high risk]

12 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Sure, there is a chance for a severe thunderstorm or two. That isn't a reason to dismiss schools early.

        Oh, I'm with you all the way.      I'm curious how they reached the decision.     

[high risk]

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

 

Well - here we go into the clearing. It's not quite to me in Colesville yet...but it's right on the doorstep. Should be solid for a decent amount of clearing. Temperatures elevated pretty quick in the clearing (seeing 76 degrees near Culpeper). Probably going to be a "garden variety+" severe day here. Perhaps a bit more widespread and intense than our true "meh" days but also not any sort of higher end/memorable event. 

          That's a very reasonable take.     I will note that the longer we have to wait for any threat to materialize, the better the shear gets.

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

          That's a very reasonable take.     I will note that the longer we have to wait for any threat to materialize, the better the shear gets.

I think there's two "issues" to watch. 

1) As we've been hearing/saying all morning - the crapvection's impact on instability. I'm cautiously optimistic that the clearing is arriving soon enough that this may be mostly a negated issue. 

2) Whether there's meaningful storms for us at all. It seems some of the guidance blows stuff up right along I-95 or east - so it's possible even if there is good convection that some of us get missed (isn't that always the case! lol)

Guessing we'll still get a watch at some point, though.