2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[tstate21]

It seems that most models have sped up the line by 2 to 3 hours over the past 24h so that its coming through the metro areas around 2-3pm as opposed to 5-6pm. If it slows back down to the latter time, I would expect the metros to have higher impacts. Something to watch as storms develop tomorrow. 

[Kmlwx]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Stop living and dying by sim reflectivity.

Point taken, but it's not the only product that doesn't look overly impressive. We'll see how things look tomorrow AM. 

[Eskimo Joe]

18 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Point taken, but it's not the only product that doesn't look overly impressive. We'll see how things look tomorrow AM. 

Yea. I'm with you. Expect to be underwhelmed and you won't be disappointed in these parts.

[Kmlwx]

18 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea. I'm with you. Expect to be underwhelmed and you won't be disappointed in these parts.

Definitely not sounding the "meh" yet, but tomorrow around 9am may be a different story. 

The curse of the day 2 ENH. Watch us wake up to a slight with 2/15/5 for tor, wind, hail. 

[Eskimo Joe]

51 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Definitely not sounding the "meh" yet, but tomorrow around 9am may be a different story. 

The curse of the day 2 ENH. Watch us wake up to a slight with 2/15/5 for tor, wind, hail. 

Naw the SWODY MOD is our curse. Going to wait until midday tomorrow before I decide where I'm in or out.

[high risk]

3 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Wish the models would be a little more enthused. HRDRPS looked decent, but a lot of the models are kind of anemic with activity tomorrow - at least compared to our higher end days. Not that I'm expected an outbreak...but for a day 2 enhanced - and one that @Eskimo Joe uttered the mod possible phrase...I'd expect more. 

I'm cautiously optimistic that I'm just reading too much into sim reflectivity and parameters - but the oranges and reds on supercell composite parameter just aren't there on the guidance that I'm looking at. 

No doubt that the area sees storm activity tomorrow afternoon...but I'm having some doubts as to whether it will be an ENH or MOD day. My mental storm prediction level is at a slight right now. 

      If you're looking for significant supercell potential, prepare to be very disappointed.    I know that SPC has us in the 5 TOR, but I've always thought of tomorrow as a wind day.     There is deep layer shear to support SVR, but the low-level shear to ramp up the TOR potential is pretty marginal at best.     That's especially true if it ends up as an early show.    The NAM Nest has gone back to a single beefy squall line later in the day, but other CAMs seem to prefer an earlier, broken line.     Among those, there is disagreement as to whether a second line will roll through later in the day;  a second line might have better wind fields to work with.   I still line the overall wind threat tomorrow, although unless the 00Z NAM Nest idea is right, it's probably more of a SLGT than an ENH.

[WeatherShak]

Lots of purples in the nam

[yoda]

5 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Definitely not sounding the "meh" yet, but tomorrow around 9am may be a different story. 

The curse of the day 2 ENH. Watch us wake up to a slight with 2/15/5 for tor, wind, hail. 

Sorry good sir, first Day 1 OTLK is ENH with 5 tor, 15 hail. and 30 wind

[yoda]

Woah... 45 wind added

[NorthArlington101]

Woah... 45 wind added

Someone might get the mod… SPC says not us (yet).

Down in beautiful Myrtle Beach personally. Hoping you all see something interesting, though!

[yoda]

FWIW, 45 wind does include Baltimore

[mappy]

15 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Not that it means a ton 24 hours out, but some of the Sim reflectivity has left a little to be desired. Definitely a solid setup though. I'm a little concerned the best activity goes N of our area. @mappyville looks solid 

Got a little storm last night so I’ll gladly take another 

[Eskimo Joe]

[Kmlwx]

Have to keep the junky storms/showers out of the area until later. NAM nest shows some stuff out ahead that may dampen the threat. Even so, it still delivers a nice line around 20z. 

[Kmlwx]

HRRR the past few runs has been really stormy. Seems to be one of the most aggressive pieces of guidance at the moment. 

[mappy]

9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

HRRR the past few runs has been really stormy. Seems to be one of the most aggressive pieces of guidance at the moment. 

all models have some sort of line coming through 3-5pm. if we can stay mostly sunny today, i think the more robust outputs could happen.

[WxWatcher007]

24 minutes ago, mappy said:

all models have some sort of line coming through 3-5pm. if we can stay mostly sunny today, i think the more robust outputs could happen.

Good luck! 

[H2O]

Dumb clouds right now

[Kmlwx]

10 minutes ago, H2O said:

Dumb clouds right now

There is some junk stating to form in the cloudiness down in VA (Lynchburg to CHO area). That could really lower instability potential today. Still think odds are good at strong storms - but the usual routes to failure are present. 

Visible satellite does show a decent amount of clear areas from around Winchester up into the Frederick, MD area and then up into southern PA. 

[North Balti Zen]

How to say meh without saying meh: a master class from Kmlwx

[weatherCCB]

Mostly cloudy now after early sun.

 

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

How to say meh without saying meh: a master class from Kmlwx

One foot in and one foot out. Only way to be a weather enthusiast  

[Eskimo Joe]

Saturday is the day for our western folks

 

[Kmlwx]

All that cloudiness/shower activity just south of the area is heading north. Seems the area outlined in red is where the good sun is going to be. It's still early, though...and it's also possible the breaks in the clouds down near Farmville, VA can get up here after the junk moves through. I'm liking the area that SPC has in the 45% wind still. Matches relatively well with this more sunny area. I wouldn't be surprised to see it tugged just a bit more out of the DC/Baltimore area on the next update (maybe removing Baltimore. 

[WxWatcher007]

38 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Saturday is the day for our western folks

 

Woah, that’s intriguing. 

[WxUSAF]

Watch box out for central PA

[midatlanticweather]

Looks like a lot of crapvection is robbing potential. Some breaks northern Loudoun and north but the stuff to the south is eroding the instability. 

[Kmlwx]

Decent breaks in the cloud cover are showing back near Lynchburg, Staunton and similar areas. If we can get the junky stuff out of here we could get a few hours of broken sunshine to get CAPE up again. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

lol hmmm

 

All Howard County public schools, including the Digital Education Center,will close 3-hours early today, Monday, May 16, 2022.

[North Balti Zen]

I gotta say, growing up in southern Ohio and then living in western TN for a dozen years before moving to this part of maryland, I remain amazed at how hard to get decent severe here. You can set your watch by early day cloud cover screwing things up it feels like 9 times out of 10.  Serious question about my random perception- is it our location east of the blue ridge that encourages and locks in cloud cover on the regular on these kinds of days?