yoda Posted April 3, 2022 Share Posted April 3, 2022 Middle of the week threat maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 4, 2022 Share Posted April 4, 2022 One more from last week: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 4, 2022 Author Share Posted April 4, 2022 On 4/3/2022 at 10:57 AM, yoda said: Middle of the week threat maybe? Meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 On 4/3/2022 at 10:57 AM, yoda said: Middle of the week threat maybe? Meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 On 4/3/2022 at 10:57 AM, yoda said: Middle of the week threat maybe? Meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 5, 2022 Author Share Posted April 5, 2022 Honestly it looks even sub-meh at this point. I'm not even tracking this one anymore. It's still early in the season anyhow. We need to wait for warmer temps, higher dews. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 25 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Honestly it looks even sub-meh at this point. I'm not even tracking this one anymore. It's still early in the season anyhow. We need to wait for warmer temps, higher dews. I look forward to a time when our window for severe wx is more consistently expanded. Upsides friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 Second TOR confirmed from March 31st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 Sounds like Thursday could be our next date to watch for possible severe per this morning AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 MRGL for Thursday from SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Maybe sneaky severe storm on Wednesday too? Morning AFD from LWX A warm front will return back north on Wednesday. Therefore, WAA will increase once again. If the warm front moves north of the region as indicated by most guidance, sun could aid in bringing temperatures towards the 80 degree mark east of I-81, with a few locations a degree or two higher. Rain chances on Wednesday are highest along the Mason-Dixon line closer to where a shortwave trough will pass through. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm across the far northwest given the forecast instability, though uncertainty remains if the instability will be surface based or elevated. Should greater instability be realized, some rotating updrafts aren`t out of the question given what appears to be supportive deep layer shear, but even then, am not sure that there would be enough CAPE for severe storms. Conditions should stabilize as diurnal heating is lost Wednesday evening into the overnight, with many locations drying out. Thursday will feature a potent cold front passing through the area into the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures Thursday will be highly sensitive to the timing of the cold front passage. Current guidance suggests a later cold front passage, resulting in warm southerly flow ahead of the cold front bringing temperatures to near 80 degrees again east of the mountains. The dynamics associated with the cold front will yield the next opportunity for rain showers and thunderstorms. This is another HSLC set up, with 50-60 kt bulk shear and mean CAPE less than 300 J/kg. A few ensemble members continue to bring CAPE values significantly higher near the metros late Thursday, but confidence is low at this time if the instability would be rooted within the boundary layer. Will maintain the potential for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon/evening, some of which could be strong or even severe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 12, 2022 Author Share Posted April 12, 2022 I'm meh-ing for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Wednesday has some sneaky supercell potential for the northwest areas, perhaps HGR and points west and north of there. CAMs suggest that the greatest threat for a few cells is in PA, but there is a signal for northwest and western MD The wind profiles might not support TORs, but they would support storm rotation. NAM Nest and hi-res FV3 both show a narrow line ahead of the front Thursday afternoon. There are questions about the amount of instability, and some of the wind profiles look “weird”, but this could eventually end up as a SLGT day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 I could see Thurs morphing into a low end SLGT day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 2% TOR risk introduced for the I-81 corridor tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2022 Author Share Posted April 13, 2022 CIPS is relatively quiet for tomorrow - but does have May 13, 2000 and May 6, 1991 in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: CIPS is relatively quiet for tomorrow - but does have May 13, 2000 and May 6, 1991 in the mix. I remember May 13, 2000 VERY well! That one affect us big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 Evening update from SPC puts D2 SLGT from Cecil County NE along I-95 into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 Really not sure what to make of the SVR chances this afternoon. Pretty much every CAM brings some sort of line or broken line through the area (with perhaps a few stronger cells immediately behind), but there is no agreement on intensity. Overall, based on simulated reflectivity, it's tough to expect more than a few SVR reports, but if we can maximize surface heating without mixing out the low-level moisture, perhaps we can have a modestly more interesting event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 60 mph gust Limbs down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 8 hours ago, high risk said: Really not sure what to make of the SVR chances this afternoon. Pretty much every CAM brings some sort of line or broken line through the area (with perhaps a few stronger cells immediately behind), but there is no agreement on intensity. Overall, based on simulated reflectivity, it's tough to expect more than a few SVR reports, but if we can maximize surface heating without mixing out the low-level moisture, perhaps we can have a modestly more interesting event. 12z RAOB has decent mid level lapse rates. Could definitely be a conditional wind threat. Wouldn't shock me to see the 15% wind get nudges back further SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 54 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z RAOB has decent mid level lapse rates. Could definitely be a conditional wind threat. Wouldn't shock me to see the 15% wind get nudges back further SW. Agreed. Ultimately, I think it's going to come down to the surface dew points. The NAM Nest and ARW2 keep dew points around 60 ahead of the line, and both have impressive reflectivity signatures. Other CAMs (including the HRRR) mix out the low-level moisture and end up with mid 50s dew points, and their simulated radars look very meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z RAOB has decent mid level lapse rates. Could definitely be a conditional wind threat. Wouldn't shock me to see the 15% wind get nudges back further SW. good call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 1 hour ago, high risk said: good call! Pulled a Pro Forecaster move 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 Line to the west really blowing up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 22 minutes ago, weatherCCB said: Line to the west really blowing up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Got some decent thunderstorms down this way this evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 Afternoon AFD suggests next Tuesday may be our first chance at severe again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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